Characterizing eve: Analysing cybercrime actors in a large underground forum

Underground forums contain many thousands of active users, but the vast majority will be involved, at most, in minor levels of deviance. The number who engage in serious criminal activity is small. That being said, underground forums have played a significant role in several recent high-profile cybercrime activities. In this work we apply data science approaches to understand criminal pathways and characterize key actors related to illegal activity in one of the largest and longest- running underground forums. We combine the results of a logistic regression model with k-means clustering and social network analysis, verifying the findings using topic analysis. We identify variables relating to forum activity that predict the likelihood a user will become an actor of interest to law enforcement, and would therefore benefit the most from intervention. This work provides the first step towards identifying ways to deter the involvement of young people away from a career in cybercrime.Alan Turing Institut

Linear, Deterministic, and Order-Invariant Initialization Methods for the K-Means Clustering Algorithm

Over the past five decades, k-means has become the clustering algorithm of choice in many application domains primarily due to its simplicity, time/space efficiency, and invariance to the ordering of the data points. Unfortunately, the algorithm's sensitivity to the initial selection of the cluster centers remains to be its most serious drawback. Numerous initialization methods have been proposed to address this drawback. Many of these methods, however, have time complexity superlinear in the number of data points, which makes them impractical for large data sets. On the other hand, linear methods are often random and/or sensitive to the ordering of the data points. These methods are generally unreliable in that the quality of their results is unpredictable. Therefore, it is common practice to perform multiple runs of such methods and take the output of the run that produces the best results. Such a practice, however, greatly increases the computational requirements of the otherwise highly efficient k-means algorithm. In this chapter, we investigate the empirical performance of six linear, deterministic (non-random), and order-invariant k-means initialization methods on a large and diverse collection of data sets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. The results demonstrate that two relatively unknown hierarchical initialization methods due to Su and Dy outperform the remaining four methods with respect to two objective effectiveness criteria. In addition, a recent method due to Erisoglu et al. performs surprisingly poorly.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figures, 5 tables, Partitional Clustering Algorithms (Springer, 2014). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1304.7465, arXiv:1209.196

Higher-order multipole amplitudes in charmonium radiative transitions

Using 24 million $\psi' \equiv \psi(2S)$ decays in CLEO-c, we have searched for higher multipole admixtures in electric-dipole-dominated radiative transitions in charmonia. We find good agreement between our data and theoretical predictions for magnetic quadrupole (M2) amplitudes in the transitions $\psi' \to \gamma \chi_{c1,2}$ and $\chi_{c1,2} \to \gamma J/\psi$, in striking contrast to some previous measurements. Let $b_2^J$ and $a_2^J$ denote the normalized M2 amplitudes in the respective aforementioned decays, where the superscript $J$ refers to the angular momentum of the $\chi_{cJ}$. By performing unbinned maximum likelihood fits to full five-parameter angular distributions, we determine the ratios $a_2^{J=1}/a_2^{J=2} = 0.67^{+0.19}_{-0.13}$ and $a_2^{J=1}/b_2^{J=1} = -2.27^{+0.57}_{-0.99}$, where the theoretical predictions are independent of the charmed quark magnetic moment and are $a_2^{J=1}/a_2^{J=2} = 0.676 \pm 0.071$ and $a_2^{J=1}/b_2^{J=1} = -2.27 \pm 0.16$.Comment: 32 pages, 7 figures, acceptance updat

Dalitz Plot Analysis of Ds to K+K-pi+

We perform a Dalitz plot analysis of the decay Ds to K+K-pi+ with the CLEO-c data set of 586/pb of e+e- collisions accumulated at sqrt(s) = 4.17 GeV. This corresponds to about 0.57 million D_s+D_s(*)- pairs from which we select 14400 candidates with a background of roughly 15%. In contrast to previous measurements we find good agreement with our data only by including an additional f_0(1370)pi+ contribution. We measure the magnitude, phase, and fit fraction of K*(892) K+, phi(1020)pi+, K0*(1430)K+, f_0(980)pi+, f_0(1710)pi+, and f_0(1370)pi+ contributions and limit the possible contributions of other KK and Kpi resonances that could appear in this decay.Comment: 21 Pages,available through http://www.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/, submitted to PR

Search for D0 to p e- and D0 to pbar e+

Using data recorded by CLEO-c detector at CESR, we search for simultaneous baryon and lepton number violating decays of the D^0 meson, specifically, D^0 --> p-bar e^+, D^0-bar --> p-bar e^+, D^0 --> p e^- and D^0-bar --> p e^-. We set the following branching fraction upper limits: D^0 --> p-bar e^+ (D^0-bar --> p-bar e^+) p e^- (D^0-bar --> p e^-) < 1.2 * 10^{-5}, both at 90% confidence level.Comment: 10 pages, available through http://www.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/, submitted to PRD. Comments: changed abstract, added reference for section 1, vertical axis in Fig.5 changed (starts from 1.5 rather than 2.0), fixed typo

Charmonium decays to gamma pi0, gamma eta, and gamma eta'

Using data acquired with the CLEO-c detector at the CESR e+e- collider, we measure branching fractions for J/psi, psi(2S), and psi(3770) decays to gamma pi0, gamma eta, and gamma eta'. Defining R_n = B[ psi(nS)-->gamma eta ]/B[ psi(nS)-->gamma eta' ], we obtain R_1 = (21.1 +- 0.9)% and, unexpectedly, an order of magnitude smaller limit, R_2 < 1.8% at 90% C.L. We also use J/psi-->gamma eta' events to determine branching fractions of improved precision for the five most copious eta' decay modes.Comment: 14 pages, available through http://www.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/, published in Physical Review

Precision Measurement of the Mass of the h_c(1P1) State of Charmonium

A precision measurement of the mass of the h_c(1P1) state of charmonium has been made using a sample of 24.5 million psi(2S) events produced in e+e- annihilation at CESR. The reaction used was psi(2S) -> pi0 h_c, pi0 -> gamma gamma, h_c -> gamma eta_c, and the reaction products were detected in the CLEO-c detector. Data have been analyzed both for the inclusive reaction and for the exclusive reactions in which eta_c decays are reconstructed in fifteen hadronic decay channels. Consistent results are obtained in the two analyses. The averaged results of the present measurements are M(h_c)=3525.28+-0.19 (stat)+-0.12(syst) MeV, and B(psi(2S) -> pi0 h_c)xB(h_c -> gamma eta_c)= (4.19+-0.32+-0.45)x10^-4. Using the 3PJ centroid mass, Delta M_hf(1P)= - M(h_c) = +0.02+-0.19+-0.13 MeV.Comment: 9 pages, available through http://www.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/, submitted to PR

Precision Measurement of B(D+ -> mu+ nu) and the Pseudoscalar Decay Constant fD+

We measure the branching ratio of the purely leptonic decay of the D+ meson with unprecedented precision as B(D+ -> mu+ nu) = (3.82 +/- 0.32 +/- 0.09)x10^(-4), using 818/pb of data taken on the psi(3770) resonance with the CLEO-c detector at the CESR collider. We use this determination to derive a value for the pseudoscalar decay constant fD+, combining with measurements of the D+ lifetime and assuming |Vcd| = |Vus|. We find fD+ = (205.8 +/- 8.5 +/- 2.5) MeV. The decay rate asymmetry [B(D+ -> mu+ nu)-B(D- -> mu- nu)]/[B(D+ -> mu+ nu)+B(D- -> mu- nu)] = 0.08 +/- 0.08, consistent with no CP violation. We also set 90% confidence level upper limits on B(D+ -> tau+ nu) < 1.2x10^(-3) and B(D+ -> e+ nu) < 8.8x10^(-6).Comment: 24 pages, 11 figures and 6 tables, v2 replaced some figure vertical axis scales, v3 corrections from PRD revie

Measurement of the Absolute Branching Fraction of D_s^+ --> tau^+ nu_tau Decay

Using a sample of tagged D_s decays collected near the D^*_s D_s peak production energy in e+e- collisions with the CLEO-c detector, we study the leptonic decay D^+_s to tau^+ nu_tau via the decay channel tau^+ to e^+ nu_e bar{nu}_tau. We measure B(D^+_s to tau^+ nu_tau) = (6.17 +- 0.71 +- 0.34) %, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. Combining this result with our measurements of D^+_s to mu^+ nu_mu and D^+_s to tau^+ nu_tau (via tau^+ to pi^+ bar{nu}_tau), we determine f_{D_s} = (274 +- 10 +- 5) MeV.Comment: 9 pages, postscript also available through http://www.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/2007/, revise

J/psi and psi(2S) Radiative Transitions to eta_c

Using 24.5 million psi(2S) decays collected with the CLEO-c detector at CESR we present the most precise measurements of magnetic dipole transitions in the charmonium system. We measure B(psi(2S)->gamma eta_c) = (4.32+/-0.16+/-0.60)x10^-3, B(J/psi->gamma eta_c)/B(psi(2S)->gamma eta_c) = 4.59+/-0.23+/-0.64, and B(J/psi->gamma eta_c) = (1.98+/-0.09+/-0.30)%. We observe a distortion in the eta_c line shape due to the photon-energy dependence of the magnetic dipole transition rate. We find that measurements of the eta_c mass are sensitive to the line shape, suggesting an explanation for the discrepancy between measurements of the eta_c mass in radiative transitions and other production mechanisms.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure