Trade liberalization and regional integration: the search for large numbers

The debate over the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on world welfare hinges upon (1) whether they are net trade creating or trade diverting and (2) whether they impede multilateral trade liberalization. Theoretical models are ambiguous on these issues. We summarize the insights from the vast body of empirical literature on multi-country CGE models which analyze RTAs. The empirical models overwhelmingly show that aggregate trade creation dominates trade diversion. Indeed, in many cases, there is no absolute aggregate trade diversion from an RTA. The models also indicate that welfare for all members — both current and potential — increases when RTAs expand. There are even bigger welfare gains when models incorporate aspects of “new trade theory” such as increasing returns, imperfect competition, technology transfers, trade externalities, and dynamic effects such as links between trade liberalization, total factor productivity growth, and capital stock accumulation. We broaden the search for large numbers by suggesting an additional gain from RTAs. We conjecture that increases in intra-sectoral trade arise from the fact that an RTA provides an expanded secure market, and permits firms to pursue economies of fine specialization. This Smithian specialization in production is another source of efficiency gains.Trade liberalization Econometric models., Trade policy Econometric models., Regional economics., Welfare economics.,

Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers

We surveyed the empirical literature using multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse potential and actual regional trade agreements (RTAs). The studies indicate that these RTAs improve welfare, that trade creation greatly exceeds trade diversion, and that they are consistent with further global liberalisation. The welfare gains are bigger when models incorporate aspects of ‘‘new trade theory’’ such as increasing returns, imperfect competition, and links between trade liberalisation, total factor productivity growth, and capital accumulation. We also conjectured that an RTA expands market size and stability, allowing firms to pursue economies of fine specialisation, generating additional ‘‘Smithian’’ efficiency gains.International Relations/Trade,

Trade and the skilled-unskilled wage gap in a model with differentiated goods

"There is a continuing debate about the role of changes in trade on the evolution of relative wages particularly the skilled-unskilled wage gap. In the 1980's, the wage gap widened considerably in the United States, and there was an active literature on the roles of trade, technology, and changes in labor supplies, particularly due to migration and education, in explaining these changes. The empirical models used to analyze the links fall into two broad groups: (1) partial-equilibrium models of the labor market, focusing on changes in the supply and demand of labor by skill category, and (2) general equilibrium trade models linking domestic factor returns to changes in world prices and the composition of trade....In this paper, we present a theoretical model that can capture many of the differences between the approaches of trade and labor economists." from Authors' Introduction.Equilibrium (Economics) Models ,

A note on taxes, prices, wages, and welfare in general equilibirium models:

Changes in real wages are often used to measure welfare changes. There is a problem, however, in interpreting measures of changes in factor returns when analyzing the impact of changes in taxes — such as tariffs and indirect taxes — that operate as wedges in product and factor markets versus direct taxes that do not work through the price system. One must account for both how the tax is collected and where the tax revenue goes. We sort out how a shift in tax structure will affect the real wage in a model which isolates the price, wage, revenue, and welfare effects. We start from a simple general equilibrium model which accounts for all income and expenditure flows in the economy and includes both traded and domestic goods. We analyze the impact of changes in indirect taxes and tariffs on prices and factor income and demonstrate the pitfalls of using real factor returns as a welfare indicator. There is a transfer effect on factor returns arising from any shift between indirect and direct taxes, regardless of any efficiency effects. Next, we add explicit factor markets to the model and describe the implications for income distribution in an extension of the Jones trade model. We find that the transfer effect dampens the magnification effect of a price change on factor returns, but does not reverse the Stolper-Samuelson results.Trade policy., Welfare economics., Equilibrium (Economics).,

Trade and tradability

We extend the Salter-Swan model to include both factor markets and semi-traded goods. In our model, changes in relative factor prices depend on changes in world commodity prices, factor endowments, and the trade balance. In contrast, only changes in world commodity prices can affect factor prices in the neoclassical trade model. The inclusion of semi-traded goods weakens the magnification effect of both the Stolper-Samuelson and Rybczynski theorems. When imports and domestic goods are poor substitutes, a characteristic of some commodities in developing countries, the sign of the Stolper-Samuelson effect is reversed. Authors' Abstract.Exports. ,Imports. ,Trade. ,Commerce Mathematical models. ,

Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data

This paper provides a technical description of a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that is calibrated from a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) representation of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. An important feature of the model is the treatment of nominal and real exchange rates and hence the specification of multiple numéraire. Another distinctive feature of the model is the use of a ‘dummy’ region, known as globe, that allows for the recording of inter regional transactions where either the source or destination are not identified.

Globe: Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia

Using a global general equilibrium trade model, this study analyzes the impact on developing countries, of (1) the dramatic expansion of trade by India, China, and an integrated East and Southeast (E&SE) Asia trade bloc and (2) productivity growth in the region. China is an integral member of the E&SE Asia bloc, with strong links through value chains and trade in intermediate inputs, while India is not part of any trade bloc. The analyses consider the importance of their different degrees of integration into regional and global economies, focusing on potential complementarities and competition with other developing countries.

After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa

After protracted and difficult negotiations, agreement was recently reached on the dimensions of a South African-EU free trade deal. Because of South Africa's prominence in the sub-region, implementation of this agreement will have an impact not only on South Africa, but on all the SADC economies. This paper traces how this impact may be felt over time, using a multi-region model constructed to focus on the determination of sectoral and geographic trade patterns. By separatelymodeling South Africa and the rest of southern Africa, the model can be used to evaluate how alternative SADC regional trade strategies can influence how the EU deal affects the region's economies; by distinguishing among major trading partners (EU, North America, East Asia), the simulations can help illuminate how the trade deal will likely affect current trade patterns The empirical results lead to a number of conclusions: (1) trade creation dominates trade diversion for the region under all FTA arrangements; (2) the rest of southern Africa benefits from an FTA between the EU and South Africa — the recently signed bilateral agreement is not a “beggar thy neighbor” policy; (3) the rest of southern Africa gains more from zero-tariff access to EU markets than from a partial (50 percent) reduction in global tariffs; and (4) the South African economy is not large enough to serve as a growth pole for the region. Access to EU markets provides substantially bigger gains for the rest of southern Africa than does access to South Africa.Trade policy Africa., Free trade., South Africa.,

Genetically modified foods, trade, and developing countries

This paper analyzes price, production and trade consequences of changing consumer preferences regarding the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in food production. The analytical framework used is an empirical global general equilibrium model, in which the entire food processing chain - from primary crops through livestock feed to processed foods - is segregated into genetically modified (GM) and non-GM lines of production. This model is used to analyze the implications of widespread use of genetically engineered crops in some regions whilst consumers in Western Europe and High- income Asia adopt a critical attitude toward GM foods. Two different representations of consumer preference changes are illustrated: (1) a change in price sensitivity: i.e. consumer demand is less sensitive to a decline in the price of GM foods relative to non-GM varieties, and (2) a structural demand shift: for a given price ratio consumers simply demand less of the GM variety relative to the non-GM variety. This analysis finds that developing countries adjust their trade patterns in response to preference changes in important trading partner countries. Non-GM varieties are diverted to GM-critical regions while GM varieties are sold to countries in which consumers are not sensitive to GM content. Furthermore, the development of segregated GM and non-GM food creates a potential niche market for producers if the non-GM characteristic can in fact be preserved and verified throughout the marketing system at reasonable costs.Genetically modified foods Economic aspects. ,Trade. ,Food production. ,Prices. ,

Genetic engineering and trade

Advocates of the use of genetic engineering techniques in agriculture contend that this new biotechnology promises increased productivity, better use of natural resources and more nutritious foods. Opponents, on the other hand, are concerned about potentially adverse implications for the environment and food safety. In response to consumer reactions against genetically modified (GM) foods in some countries - particularly in Western Europe - crop production is being segregated into GM and non-GM varieties. This paper investigates how such changes in the maize and soybean sectors may affect international trade patterns, with particular attention given to different groups of developing countries.Biotechnology. ,Environmental impact analysis. ,Genetic engineering. ,International trade. ,Developing countries. ,Agriculture. ,TMD ,