Água, energia e economia: uma avaliação integrada dos impactos económicos das alterações climáticas num país Mediterrânico

Climate change is considered one of the most severe threats to the natural world and global economy. For that reason, the assessment of climate change impacts and mitigation policies have deserved the attention of the scientific and political communities worldwide. One of the main drivers of climate change are the variations in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), which are primarily released by the energy sector. On the other hand, the most evident physical impact of climate change is global warming, which interferes with the water cycle, in particular through changes in precipitation, thereby affecting the availability and variability of supply of and demand for water resources. Water, in turn, is essential in the energy production chain and a key input for the power sector – in particular for hydropower generation. Hence, the energy sector, not only, contributes to climate change but is, also, vulnerable to climate change impacts. Simultaneously, the energy supply sector has significant potential for climate change mitigation, notably through increased efficiency and the deployment of renewable-sourced technologies, such as hydropower. The overall objective of this thesis is to analyse the impacts and feedbacks between water resources, the energy sector and the economy in the face of energy and climate goals as well as climate change. For the case of the Mediterranean country of Portugal, the analysis focusses on i) the economic impacts of current energy/climate policies and targets, and ii) the economic impacts of future climate-driven changes in water resources availability and competition. Results show that: i) attaining energy saving targets is most cost-effectively achieved through a reduction in primary energy consumption of fossil fuels and that achieving a reduction in final energy consumption is most cost-effectively achieved through the taxation of all energy products; ii) stronger climate change impacts and associated reductions in water resources availability imply an increasing role of fossil fuels in the power mix, thus increasing GHG emissions and undermining the compliance with climate goals; iii) macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of climate change are stronger if competition for water between hydropower and the other economic sectors is not considered and if transboundary competition for water is taken into account; and iv) the impacts of climate change related reductions in water resources availability result in decreases in gross domestic product (GDP) of between -0.1% and -3.2%. Hence, beyond the quantification of the economic impacts of climate/energy policies and climate-driven changes in water resources availability and competition by 2050, the analyses provide relevant insights that are of utmost importance for energy and climate policy-makingAs alterações climáticas são consideradas uma das mais sérias ameaças ao mundo natural e à economia global. Por essa razão, a avaliação dos impactos das alterações climáticas e a definição de políticas de mitigação têm merecido a atenção das comunidades científica e política em todo o mundo. Uma das principais causas das alterações climáticas são as variações da concentração de gases com efeito de estufa (GEE) na atmosfera, que são maioritariamente emitidos pelo setor energético. Por outro lado, o impacto físico mais evidente das alterações climáticas é o aquecimento global, que interfere com o ciclo da água, em particular através de alterações da precipitação, e afeta a disponibilidade e a variabilidade da oferta e da procura de recursos hídricos. A água é, por sua vez, essencial na cadeia de produção do setor energético, e um input crucial para o setor elétrico – em particular, para a produção hidroelétrica. Assim, o setor energético não só contribui para as alterações climáticas, como é, também, vulnerável aos seus impactos. Ao mesmo tempo, o setor energético tem um significativo potencial de mitigação das alterações climáticas, nomeadamente através de aumentos de eficiência e da produção a partir de fontes renováveis, como a hidroelétrica. O objetivo global desta tese é analisar os impactos e feedbacks entre recursos hídricos, o setor energético e a economia, considerando os objetivos de energia e clima e as alterações climáticas. Para o caso de Portugal, país Mediterrânico, a análise foca-se i) nos impactos económicos das metas fixadas pelas políticas de energia/clima em vigor e ii) nos impactos económicos da redução da disponibilidade e da competição pela água, decorrentes das alterações climáticas. Os resultados mostram que: i) a forma mais custo-eficaz de alcançar objetivos de poupança de energia é através da redução do consumo de energia primária de origem fóssil, e que a forma mais custo-eficaz de alcançar objetivos de poupança de energia final é através da redução do consumo de todos os produtos (fósseis e renováveis); ii) impactos mais severos das alterações climáticas e a redução da disponibilidade de água que lhes está associada implicam um papel crescente dos combustíveis fósseis no mix elétrico, o que provoca um aumento das emissões de GEE e pode pôr em causa o cumprimento de objetivos climáticos; iii) os impactos macroeconómicos e setoriais das alterações climáticas são mais fortes se a concorrência pela água entre a produção hidroelétrica e os restantes setores económicos não for considerada, e se a concorrência transfronteiriça for tida em conta; e iv) os impactos das alterações climáticas na disponibilidade de água levam a uma redução do produto interno bruto entre -0.1% e -3.2%. Para além da quantificação dos impactos económicos das políticas de energia/clima e dos efeitos das alterações climáticas na disponibilidade de recursos hídricos, a análise fornece elementos relevantes para a definição de políticas de energia e climaPrograma Doutoral em Ciências e Engenharia do Ambient

Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) decision support tool: report on frontrunner Aqua Cases

"This report has been developed in the context of the international co-operation projectAqua-Add (Deploying the added value of water in local and regional development), aiming atthe sharing of knowledge and experience between project partners as to better deploy thepotential of 'water' (economically, socially and environmentally) in urbanised landscapes andto improve the implementation of water measures in local and regional spatialdevelopment. Aqua-Add not only collects, analyses, disseminates and promotes the specificfunctions, services and values of green/blue spaces, but also develops and applies a DecisionSupport Tool (DST) that: i) demonstrates the (potential) social, environmental and economicimpacts of different water management scenarios, and ii) facilitates the planning processand better informed decision making across stakeholders.The objective of this report is to present, not only, the theory and methodologyunderpinning, but also, the application of the Sustainable Urbanizing LandscapeDevelopment decision support tool (SULD; Roebeling et al., 2007). Case studies arepresented for the two frontrunner Aqua Cases (Aveiro PT; Eindhoven NL), to assess theimpact of location-specific green/blue space and socio-economic scenarios on the location ofresidential development, housing quantity, residential development density, populationdensity, population composition, household living space and real estate values. (...)

Socio-Economic and environmental indicators: do they go hand in hand or back to back? A zoom into SDG7

The EU is succeeding in the achievement of climate and energy targets, but affordability of energy services cannot be left behind. The paper assesses the interlinkages between SDG 7’s social, economic and environmental dimensions to understand whether they go hand in hand or back to back. With Eurostat data for 27 countries for the share of households unable to keep homes warm, energy dependency and the share of renewables, we use correlations and scatter (for pairs) and the Venn diagram (for the combination of the three). Results show a diversity of synergistic or trade-off paths, making clear that the solutions to improve the progress in SDG 7 cannot be the same for all Member States and that even the most urgent measures in a domain should not compromise advancements in others. The micro affordability ratios computed and the share of households with affordability problems expose a greater extension of issues than those revealed by EU affordability indicator, confirming the relevance of looking at the problem from different lenses. Moreover, households with elder and living in more isolated areas are found especially prevalent among those with affordability problems. This should be accommodated in policy measures to support those most in need

Balancing social and economic impacts of nature-based solutions for storm water management = Équilibrer les impacts sociaux et économiques des solutions écologiques pour la gestion des eaux pluviales

FR: Les espaces verts et bleus sont mis sous pression alors que les zones urbaines se densifient, sedéveloppent et évoluent. Pourtant, il est avéré que ces espaces fournissent des servicesécosystémiques essentiels - dont la gestion des eaux de ruissellement (inondations), la constructiond'abris pour la faune et la flore (biodiversité) et l'amélioration du cadre de vie (esthétique et récréatif).Ces solutions basées sur l'ingénierie écologique pour des risques d'inondation sont une priorité pourla recherche et dans l'agenda politique européen. La mise en place de ces solutions peut toutefoisconduire à la gentrification des quartiers, où une demande accrue immobilière des ménages àrevenus plus élevés conduit à une augmentation des valeurs immobilières et au déplacement desménages à faible revenu. Cette étude vise à évaluer et à comparer les impacts sociaux etéconomiques des solutions écologiques dans un projet de requalification urbaine à La Confluence(Lyon, France), en utilisant un modèle de simulation hédonique (SULD). Les résultats montrent troisgrandes tendances en ce qui concerne la mise en place de ces solutions dans les paysages urbains:i) l'augmentation de la densité de population, ii) l'augmentation des prix de l'immobilier, et iii) lechangement dans les modes de distribution démographiques. Ces effets de gentrification peuvent êtreatténués par, entre autres, la requalification simultanée des grandes infrastructures routières quipeuvent réduire les déplacements des ménages à faible revenu.Urban green and blue spaces are put under pressure as urban areas grow, develop and evolve. It isincreasingly recognized, however, that green/blue spaces provide critical ecosystem services -including regulating (flood control), habitat (biodiversity) and cultural (aesthetic and recreational)services. These so-called nature-based solutions for flood risk adaptation are a key priority on theEuropean research and policy agenda, given their contribution to welfare and human well-being. Theestablishment of nature-based solutions may, however, lead to gentrification where increased realestate demand from higher-income households leads to increased real estate values and thedisplacement of lower-income households. This paper aims to assess and compare the social andeconomic impacts of nature-based solutions in an urban-requalification project in the Confluence(Lyon, France), using the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) hedonic pricingsimulation model. Results show three major tendencies regarding the establishment of nature-basedsolutions in urban landscapes: i) population densities increase, ii) real estate values rise, and iii)demographic distribution patterns change. These gentrification effects may be dampened by, amongstothers, the simultaneous requalification of major road infrastructure that leads to reduceddisplacement of lower-income households

Evaluating hydrological and socio-economic impacts of green/blue space projects for storm water management = Evaluation des effets hydrologiques et socioéconomiques des espaces verts/bleus pour la gestion des eaux de pluie

FR: Les régions et villes européennes doivent faire face à des nombreuses questions liées à l'eau :gestion des eaux pluviales, qualité de l'eau, impact des sécheresses sur les milieux aquatiques. Pourrépondre durablement à ces questions, il est évident que l'eau doit être intégrée dans ledéveloppement urbain et dans les politiques d'aménagement du territoire. L'objectif général du projetpour la coopération interrégionale Aqua-Add (Mieux intégrer l'eau dans les projets urbains) est dedéployer le potentiel de l'eau dans les paysages urbains (potentiel économique, social etenvironnemental). Dans ce contexte, l'approche hydrologique et un modèle hédonique des prix sontintégrés et appliqués afin de vérifier les effets hydrologiques et socio-économiques des différentessolutions pour la gestion des eaux de pluie, et de faciliter le débat avec les acteurs de l'aménagement.L'objectif de cette étude est d'évaluer les effets hydrologiques et socio-économiques des espacesverts/bleus pour la gestion des eaux de pluie dans les villes moyennes. Nous présentons et étudionsici plus particulièrement l'étude de cas de Imperia (Italie)European regions and cities face important challenges related to water management, includingstorage, discharge, quality and periodic stress. To address these challenges, it is evident that watermust become an integral part of urban planning policies and their implementation. The internationalco-operation project Aqua-Add (Deploying the added value of water in local and regionaldevelopment) aims to deploy the potential of 'water' (economically, socially and environmentally) inurbanized landscapes and to improve the implementation of water measures in local and regionalurban planning. In this framework, hydrologic and hedonic-pricing simulation modelling approachesare integrated and applied in order to demonstrate the potential environmental, social and economicimpacts of different water management scenarios as well as to facilitate more informed decisionmaking across stakeholders. The objective of this paper is to assess the hydrological as well as socioeconomic implications of green/blue space projects for storm water management in medium-sizedcities. In particular, the case study of Imperia (Italy) is here presented and discussed

Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) decision support tool: report on other Aqua Cases. Aqua-Add project

"This report has been developed in the context of the international co-operation projectAqua-Add (Deploying the added value of water in local and regional development), aiming atthe sharing of knowledge and experience between project partners as to better deploy thepotential of 'water' (economically, socially and environmentally) in urbanised landscapes andto improve the implementation of water measures in local and regional spatialdevelopment. Aqua-Add not only collects, analyses, disseminates and promotes the specificfunctions, services and values of green/blue spaces, but also develops and applies a DecisionSupport Tool (DST) that: i) demonstrates the (potential) social, environmental and economicimpacts of different water management scenarios, and ii) facilitates the planning processand better informed decision making across stakeholders.The objective of this report is twofold. First, the importance of stakeholder meetings in thedevelopment and application of the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD;Roebeling et al., 2007, 2014) decision support tool is assessed. In particular, the extent towhich these meetings facilitated the identification, assessment and communication ofdifferent views and interests and, in turn, encouraged the effective engagement ofstakeholders in the participative design of (peri-) urban development plans. Second, theapplication of SULD to the other Aqua Cases (Bremerhaven DE; Copenhagen DK; DebrecenHU; Imperia IT; Lyon FR; Sofia BU) is presented and discussed, to assess the impact oflocation-specific green/blue space and infrastructure projects on the location of residentialdevelopment, housing quantity, residential development density, population density,population composition, household living space and real estate values. (,,,)

Nationwide access to endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke in portugal

Publisher Copyright: Copyright Ordem dos M dicos 2021.Introduction: Since the publication of endovascular treatment trials and European Stroke Guidelines, Portugal has re-organized stroke healthcare. The nine centers performing endovascular treatment are not equally distributed within the country, which may lead to differential access to endovascular treatment. Our main aim was to perform a descriptive analysis of the main treatment metrics regarding endovascular treatment in mainland Portugal and its administrative districts. Material and Methods: A retrospective national multicentric cohort study was conducted, including all ischemic stroke patients treated with endovascular treatment in mainland Portugal over two years (July 2015 to June 2017). All endovascular treatment centers contributed to an anonymized database. Demographic, stroke-related and procedure-related variables were collected. Crude endovascular treatment rates were calculated per 100 000 inhabitants for mainland Portugal, and each district and endovascular treatment standardized ratios (indirect age-sex standardization) were also calculated. Patient time metrics were computed as the median time between stroke onset, first-door, and puncture. Results: A total of 1625 endovascular treatment procedures were registered. The endovascular treatment rate was 8.27/100 000 inhabitants/year. We found regional heterogeneity in endovascular treatment rates (1.58 to 16.53/100 000/year), with higher rates in districts closer to endovascular treatment centers. When analyzed by district, the median time from stroke onset to puncture ranged from 212 to 432 minutes, reflecting regional heterogeneity. Discussion: Overall endovascular treatment rates and procedural times in Portugal are comparable to other international registries. We found geographic heterogeneity, with lower endovascular treatment rates and longer onset-to-puncture time in southern and inner regions. Conclusion: The overall national rate of EVT in the first two years after the organization of EVT-capable centers is one of the highest among European countries, however, significant regional disparities were documented. Moreover, stroke-onset-to-first-door times and in-hospital procedural times in the EVT centers were comparable to those reported in the randomized controlled trials performed in high-volume tertiary hospitalspublishersversionpublishe

Water competition through the ‘water-energy’ nexus: Assessing the economic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean context

© 2020. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is a pre-copyedited version of an article published in Energy Economics. The final version of this article is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988319303342?via%3Dihu

Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach

Hydropower plays a major role in the Portuguese electrical mix. Given the projected impacts of climate change on the availability of water resources, effects on hydropower generation are widely recognized though scantily quantified in literature. Considering projected climate change impacts on water resources in Portugal, we use a partial equilibrium bottom-up optimization model (TIMES_PT) to assess the effects of climate change on the Portuguese electrical system by 2050 – particularly focusing on the impacts on water resources availability and hydropower generation. Results show that hydropower generation may decrease by 41% in 2050. Hydropower will remain one of the most cost-effective technologies in the power sector, though it will lose as compared to other renewable energy sources (solar PV and wind power) due to, not only, the almost fully exploited endogenous hydropower potential, but also, due to climate change impacts. This will result in higher electricity prices (up to a 17% increase). Moreover, the stronger the climate change impacts the higher the levels of greenhouse gas emissions (up to 7.2% increase) – thus demanding stronger political action to comply with EU climate goals for 2050.publishe