Phase II trial of gemcitabine in combination with cisplatin in inoperable or advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Introduction: Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a dismal prognosis and is notoriously chemo-resistant. We conducted a Phase II prospective study to evaluate the activity and tolerability of gemcitabine and cisplatin in chemo-naïve advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. The trial considered a “no further interest” response rate of 10% and a target response rate of 30%. Utilising a Simon’s minimax two-stage design with a type I error of 0.05 and power of 80%, 25 subjects would be required. Fifteen patients would be needed in stage 1 and if fewer than 2 responses were observed, the trial would be stopped and lack of efficacy claimed. Materials and Methods: Patients with advanced HCC, diagnosed based on histology or by World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, were administered gemcitabine 1000 mg/m2 and cisplatin 25 mg/ m2 on day 1 and day 8 of a 21-day schedule. Assessment of response based on computer tomography was performed after every 2 cycles of chemotherapy. Results: The trial was stopped early due to a lack of efficacy. A total of 15 patients were accrued. Twelve patients were hepatitis B positive and the other 3 patients were negative for both hepatitis B and C. Only 1 patient had a history of prior heavy alcohol use. Two patients had Child C liver cirrhosis, 5 patients had Child B cirrhosis, and the remaining 8 patients had Child A cirrhosis. This regime was well tolerated and there was only 1 patient who experienced grade IV toxicities. Only 5 of 15 patients experienced grade III toxicities (nausea and emesis, 1 patient; anemia, 1 patient; thrombocytopenia, 1 patient; and neutropaenia, 2 patients). Only 1 patient experienced a partial response to the combination of gemcitabine and cisplatin. A further 3 patients experienced stable disease and 11 patients progressed on chemotherapy. The median time to progression was 6 weeks. The progression-free curve showed a sharp descent in the initial part of the study, suggesting that many patients had disease progression after enrolment. The median overall survival was 18 weeks. Conclusion: The progression-free survival and overall survival in our study were extremely short. Based on the results of our phase 2 study, we are unable to recommend further studies utilising gemcitabine and cisplatin combination in patients with advanced HC

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society