Are early market indicators of financial deterioration accurate for Too Big To Fail banks? Evidence from East Asia

This paper investigates whether market information is reliable to predict financial deterioration of large Too Big To Fail banks in Asia. A stepwise logit model is first estimated to isolate the optimal set of accounting indicators to predict rating downgrades. The model is then extended to assess the added value of market indicators and to test for the possible presence of a Too Big To Fail effect. While some results show that market indicators bring in additional information in the prediction process, there is consistent evidence of a Too Big To Fail effect.Bank, Bank Failure, Bank Risk, East Asia

The determinants of bank stock return's co-movements in East Asia

We examine co-movements of bank stock returns in eight East Asian countries after the 1997 crisis and attempt to determine the factors that influence them. Unlike Bautista and al (2008) who focus on a measure of the contribution of banks to systemic risk, we consider the return correlations among banks within each country which are used as a dependent variable in weighted least squares regressions. The factors were chosen from a wide range of accounting and market-based indicators, but also macroeconomic and financial development data, using a stepwise procedure. The study finds that financial development is one of the significant determinants of return co-movement but that the share of interbank activities in the balance sheet is not a significant factor. A strong link is found between the bank return co-movements and bank default risk measured by a z-score. To a lesser extent, the share of loan activities in a bank's balance sheet, which is a proxy of opacity, is also a significant factor of the level of correlation.Bank contagion, East Asia, Correlation of bank stock returns

Does the presence of institutional investors in family banks affect profitability and risk? Evidence from an emerging market

This study aims to investigate whether the presence of institutional investors in family-controlled banks impacts their performance and risk. Using detailed data on Indonesian banks from 2001 to 2008 and controlling for various factors, our results first show that family-controlled banks are less profitable and more risky than other banks. Specifically, family presence, either under the form of direct ownership, pure single majority, or family directors, is related to higher default risk, income variability, and loan risk. However, the presence of institutional investors as a second stage block holder in family controlled banks tends to mitigate and even reverse such behavior by reducing risk-taking and improving performance. Our results are generally robust with regard to endogeneity issues and alternative specifications

Does diversity of bank board members affect performance and risk? Evidence from an emerging market

This study investigates the influence of background diversity of bank board members on performance and risk. Using data from Indonesian banks from 2001 to 2011 covering 4200 individual year observations and 21 ethnic groups, we estimate the degree of diversity by considering various aspects (gender, citizenship, age, experience, tenure, ethnicity, nationality, education level and type) and find significant impacts on bank performance. On the whole, diversity is in general positively associated with performance except when it relates to ethnicity. It not only reduces performance per se but also increases risk. Female presence and professional diversity reduce risk but nationality and ethnicity diversities are associated with higher risk. Education diversity generally leads to higher income volatility and leverage risk. Our results are generally robust to various alternative performance measures, including risk adjusted returns, and estimation methods

Local Versus International Crises, Foreign Subsidiaries and Bank Stability: Evidence from the MENA Region

We investigate the impact of global and local crises on bank stability and examine the effect of owning bank subsidiaries in other countries. We consider banks from MENA countries which experienced both types of crises during our sample period. Our findings highlight a negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 on bank stability but, on the whole, no negative impact of the 'Arab Spring'. A deeper investigation shows that owning subsidiaries outside the home country is a source of increased fragility during normal times, yet a source of higher stability during the 'Arab Spring' but not during the global financial crisis. Moreover, owning foreign subsidiaries in one or two world regions is insufficient to neutralize the 'Arab Spring' crisis, while being present in three or more regions is more stabilizing during the 'Arab Spring' but also more destabilizing during the global financial crisis. Our findings contribute to the literature examining bank stability and have several policy implications. (T. Al Raheb). c Email: [email protected] (A. Tarazi) 2 Local Versus International Crises, Foreign Subsidiaries and Bank Stability: Evidence from the MENA Region. Abstract We investigate the impact of global and local crises on bank stability and examine the effect of owning bank subsidiaries in other countries. We consider banks from MENA countries which experienced both types of crises during our sample period. Our findings highlight a negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 on bank stability but, on the whole, no negative impact of the 'Arab Spring'. A deeper investigation shows that owning subsidiaries outside the home country is a source of increased fragility during normal times, yet a source of higher stability during the 'Arab Spring' but not during the global financial crisis. Moreover, owning foreign subsidiaries in one or two world regions is insufficient to neutralize the 'Arab Spring' crisis, while being present in three or more regions is more stabilizing during the 'Arab Spring' but also more destabilizing during the global financial crisis. Our findings contribute to the literature examining bank stability and have several policy implications

Disclosure, ownership structure and bank risk: Evidence from Asia

We investigate the impact of the interaction of disclosure and ownership structure on bank risk. Using a sample of 209 commercial banks from Asia during the 2004-2010 period, we find that disclosure is negatively associated with income volatility and that such an impact is stronger in the presence of block holders and institutional ownership and weaker with insider or government ownership. Our results also provide evidence that better disclosure ensures greater stability as measured by individual bank default risk. Furthermore, a deeper investigation shows that disclosure on income statement, loans, other earning assets, deposits, and memo lines plays a stronger role in limiting risk than disclosure on non-deposit liabilities

Are early market indicators of financial deterioration accurate for Too Big To Fail banks? Evidence from East Asia

This paper investigates whether market information is reliable to predict financial deterioration of large Too Big To Fail banks in Asia. A stepwise logit model is first estimated to isolate the optimal set of accounting indicators to predict rating downgrades. The model is then extended to assess the added value of market indicators and to test for the possible presence of a Too Big To Fail effect. While some results show that market indicators bring in additional information in the prediction process, there is consistent evidence of a Too Big To Fail effect

Falling under the control of a different type of owner : risk-taking implications for Banks

European banks have experienced significant changes in the type of entity that owns them (another bank, an individual or a family, a non-financial company, an institutional investor, a government, a foreign entity, a domestic entity…). In this paper, we look at the influence of ownership type changes on performance. Working with a panel of commercial banks from 17 European countries, we find that although banks that experience a change in ownership type do not exhibit lower or higher risk or profitability than other banks, their risk and profitability is significantly affected after the change takes place. The type of the acquirer plays a significant role in explaining the observed changes. When the acquirer is a non-financial company, the state or an institutional investor, the level of risk increases after the change while the level of profitability remains unchanged. Conversely, when the acquirer is a bank, we find that the level of risk-adjusted profitability decreases. Banks acquired by a different type of owner during the global financial crisis do not perform better or worse than they did before

Finance-Growth Nexus and Dual Banking System: Relative Importance of Islamic Banks

This paper investigates the relationship between the coexistence of Islamic banks alongside their conventional counterparts and the quantitative and qualitative development of commercial banking and economic welfare. We study 22 Muslim countries with a dual banking system during the 1999-2009 period and find a positive relationship between the market share of Islamic banks and the development of financial intermediation and economic growth. The results also show a negative linkage between Islamic banks' presence and income inequality and poverty. Moreover, a greater market share of Islamic banks is associated with lower credit risk and cost inefficiency of conventional banks in certain countries. The extent and modality of the relationships considerably depend on the institutional environment within which a dual banking system operates

Bank Regulatory Capital and Liquidity: Evidence from U.S. and European publicly traded banks

International audienceThe theory of financial intermediation highlights various channels through which capital and liquidity are interrelated. Using a simultaneous equations framework, we investigate the relationship between bank regulatory capital and bank liquidity measured from on-balance sheet positions for European and U.S. publicly traded commercial banks. Previous research studying the determinants of bank capital buffer has neglected the role of liquidity. On the whole, we find that banks decrease their regulatory capital ratios when they face higher illiquidity as defined in the Basel III accords or when they create more liquidity as measured by Berger and Bouwman (2009). However, considering other measures of illiquidity that focus more closely on core deposits in the United States, our results show that small banks strengthen their solvency standards when they are exposed to higher illiquidity. Our empirical investigation supports the need to implement minimum liquidity ratios concomitant to capital ratios, as stressed by the Basel Committee; however, our findings also shed light on the need to further clarify how to define and measure illiquidity and also on how to regulate large banking institutions, which behave differently than smaller ones