An incremental explanation of inference in Bayesian networks for increasing model trustworthiness and supporting clinical decision making

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its predictions. Key to this is if its underlying reasoning can be explained. A Bayesian network (BN) model has the advantage that it is not a black-box and its reasoning can be explained. In this paper, we propose an incremental explanation of inference that can be applied to ‘hybrid’ BNs, i.e. those that contain both discrete and continuous nodes. The key questions that we answer are: (1) which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction, and (2) through which intermediate variables does the information flow. The explanation is illustrated using a real clinical case study. A small evaluation study is also conducted

Turbulence spectra in the buoyancy subrange of thermally stratified shear flows

CER68-69JTL21.February 1969.Originally presented as the author's thesis, Colorado State University.Includes bibliographical references (pages 94-97).Prepared under Office of Naval Research, project no. NR 062-414/6-6-68(Code 438), U.S. Department of Defense.A generalized eddy-viscosity approximation is used to study the turbulence spectra of thermally stratified shear flows. For a stationary process in the wave number range investigated--the buoyancy subrange--under the assumption of local homogeneity of the flow, two governing spectral equations with six unknowns are derived from the equations of motion and energy. In order to reduce the number of unknowns to two so that the spectral equations can be solved, a generalized eddy-viscosity is used for expressing the integrated forms of the inertial transfers of energy and temperature inhomogeneity, the shear stress and vertical heat flux in terms of velocity spectrum ¢(k) and temperature spectrum ¢TT(k). Asymptotic solutions are obtained in the buoyancy subrange where the local production and local dissipation of turbulent energy is negligible as compared to the inertial transfer and vertical heat flux terms when the flow conditions satisfy the criterion ε|dT'/dz| << N g/T' or g/T'. |dT'/dz| << N/ε.(g/T)^2. In the buoyancy subrange of stably stratified turbulent flow, the power law for the velocity and temperature spectra is not universal but varies with the flow conditions in the way ¢(k) ~ k^n and ¢TT(k) ~ k^m where 11/5 ≥ n ≥ -3 and -1 ≥ m ≥ -7/5. According to the measurements of velocity spectra in the atmosphere (Pinus and Schcherbakova, 1966; Myrup, 1968), the dependence of the power law on the flow conditions was confirmed. The solutions of Bolgiano (1959) and Luialey-Shur (1964) are only two particular cases of the present results under cert ain flow conditions. In the case of the unstably stratified turbulent flow, the velocity spectrum exhibits a hump in the buoyancy subrange as a result of the energy input from the temperature field to the velocity field. In the left side of this hump the velocity spectrum approaches a +1 slope and the temperature spectrum shows a -3 slope. The measurements of the velocity spectra in the atmosphere (Ivanov and Ordanovich, 1967) confirms this tendency.Under contract no. N00014-68-A-0493-0001

Enhancement of singly and multiply strangeness in p-Pb and Pb-Pb collisions at 158A GeV/c

The idea that the reduction of the strange quark suppression in string fragmentation leads to the enhancement of strange particle yield in nucleus-nucleus collisions is applied to study the singly and multiply strange particle production in p-Pb and Pb-Pb collisions at 158A GeV/c. In this mechanism the strange quark suppression factor is related to the effective string tension, which increases in turn with the increase of the energy, of the centrality and of the mass of colliding system. The WA97 observation that the strange particle enhancement increases with the increasing of centrality and of strange quark content in multiply strange particles in Pb-Pb collisions with respect to p-Pb collisions was accounted reasonably.Comment: 8 pages, 3 PostScript figures, in Latex form. submitted to PR

Health status of older adults with Type 2 diabetes mellitus after aerobic or resistance training: A randomised trial

10.1186/1477-7525-9-59Health and Quality of Life Outcomes9

Deficiency of Capicua disrupts bile acid homeostasis

Capicua (CIC) has been implicated in pathogenesis of spinocerebellar ataxia type 1 and cancer in mammals; however, the in vivo physiological functions of CIC remain largely unknown. Here we show that Cic hypomorphic (Cic-L-/-) mice have impaired bile acid (BA) homeostasis associated with induction of proinflammatory cytokines. We discovered that several drug metabolism and BA transporter genes were down-regulated in Cic-L-/- liver, and that BA was increased in the liver and serum whereas bile was decreased within the gallbladder of Cic-L-/- mice. We also found that levels of proinflammatory cytokine genes were up-regulated in Cic-L-/- liver. Consistent with this finding, levels of hepatic transcriptional regulators, such as hepatic nuclear factor 1 alpha (HNF1 alpha), CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein beta (C/EBP beta), forkhead box protein A2 (FOXA2), and retinoid X receptor alpha (RXR alpha), were markedly decreased in Cic-L-/- mice. Moreover, induction of tumor necrosis factor alpha (Tnf alpha) expression and decrease in the levels of FOXA2, C/EBP beta, and RXRa were found in Cic-L-/- liver before BA was accumulated, suggesting that inflammation might be the cause for the cholestasis in Cic-L-/- mice. Our findings indicate that CIC is a critical regulator of BA homeostasis, and that its dysfunction might be associated with chronic liver disease and metabolic disorders.open11810Ysciescopu

Vector modulation instability induced by vacuum fluctuations in highly birefringent fibers in the anomalous dispersion regime

We report a detailed experimental study of vector modulation instability in highly birefringent optical fibers in the anomalous dispersion regime. We prove that the observed instability is mainly induced by vacuum fluctuations. The detuning of the spectral peaks agrees with linear perturbation analysis. The exact shape of the spectrum is well reproduced by numerical integration of stochastic nonlinear Schrodinger equations describing quantum propagation.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, to be published in Optics Letter

SOXE neofunctionalization and elaboration of the neural crest during chordate evolution

During chordate evolution, two genome-wide duplications facilitated acquisition of vertebrate traits, including emergence of neural crest cells (NCCs), in which neofunctionalization of the duplicated genes are thought to have facilitated development of craniofacial structures and the peripheral nervous system. How these duplicated genes evolve and acquire the ability to specify NC and their derivatives are largely unknown. Vertebrate SoxE paralogues, most notably Sox9/10, are essential for NC induction, delamination and lineage specification. In contrast, the basal chordate, amphioxus, has a single SoxE gene and lacks NC-like cells. Here, we test the hypothesis that duplication and divergence of an ancestral SoxE gene may have facilitated elaboration of NC lineages. By using an in vivo expression assay to compare effects of AmphiSoxE and vertebrate Sox9 on NC development, we demonstrate that all SOXE proteins possess similar DNA binding and homodimerization properties and can induce NCCs. However, AmphiSOXE is less efficient than SOX9 in transactivation activity and in the ability to preferentially promote glial over neuronal fate, a difference that lies within the combined properties of amino terminal and transactivation domains. We propose that acquisition of AmphiSoxE expression in the neural plate border led to NCC emergence while duplication and divergence produced advantageous mutations in vertebrate homologues, promoting elaboration of NC traits