Divergent mathematical treatments in utility theory

In this paper I study how divergent mathematical treatments affect mathematical modelling, with a special focus on utility theory. In particular I examine recent work on the ranking of information states and the discounting of future utilities, in order to show how, by replacing the standard analytical treatment of the models involved with one based on the framework of Nonstandard Analysis, diametrically opposite results are obtained. In both cases, the choice between the standard and nonstandard treatment amounts to a selection of set-theoretical parameters that cannot be made on purely empirical grounds. The analysis of this phenomenon gives rise to a simple logical account of the relativity of impossibility theorems in economic theory, which concludes the paper

Aggregation Rules in Committee Procedures.

Very often, decision procedures in a committee compensate potential manipulations by taking into account the ordered profile of qualifications. It is therefore rejected the standard assumption of an underlying associative binary connective allowing the evaluation of arbitrary finite sequences of items by means of a one-by-one sequential process. In this paper we develop a mathematical approach for non-associative connectives allowing a sequential definition by means of binary fuzzy connectives. It will be then stressed that a connective rule should be understood as a consistent sequence of binary connective operators. Committees should previously decide about which connective rule they will be condidering, not just about a single operator

COSPAR Sample Safety Assessment Framework (SSAF).

The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Sample Safety Assessment Framework (SSAF) has been developed by a COSPAR appointed Working Group. The objective of the sample safety assessment would be to evaluate whether samples returned from Mars could be harmful for Earth's systems (e.g., environment, biosphere, geochemical cycles). During the Working Group's deliberations, it became clear that a comprehensive assessment to predict the effects of introducing life in new environments or ecologies is difficult and practically impossible, even for terrestrial life and certainly more so for unknown extraterrestrial life. To manage expectations, the scope of the SSAF was adjusted to evaluate only whether the presence of martian life can be excluded in samples returned from Mars. If the presence of martian life cannot be excluded, a Hold & Critical Review must be established to evaluate the risk management measures and decide on the next steps. The SSAF starts from a positive hypothesis (there is martian life in the samples), which is complementary to the null-hypothesis (there is no martian life in the samples) typically used for science. Testing the positive hypothesis includes four elements: (1) Bayesian statistics, (2) subsampling strategy, (3) test sequence, and (4) decision criteria. The test sequence capability covers self-replicating and non-self-replicating biology and biologically active molecules. Most of the investigations associated with the SSAF would need to be carried out within biological containment. The SSAF is described in sufficient detail to support planning activities for a Sample Receiving Facility (SRF) and for preparing science announcements, while at the same time acknowledging that further work is required before a detailed Sample Safety Assessment Protocol (SSAP) can be developed. The three major open issues to be addressed to optimize and implement the SSAF are (1) setting a value for the level of assurance to effectively exclude the presence of martian life in the samples, (2) carrying out an analogue test program, and (3) acquiring relevant contamination knowledge from all Mars Sample Return (MSR) flight and ground elements. Although the SSAF was developed specifically for assessing samples from Mars in the context of the currently planned NASA-ESA MSR Campaign, this framework and the basic safety approach are applicable to any other Mars sample return mission concept, with minor adjustments in the execution part related to the specific nature of the samples to be returned. The SSAF is also considered a sound basis for other COSPAR Planetary Protection Category V, restricted Earth return missions beyond Mars. It is anticipated that the SSAF will be subject to future review by the various MSR stakeholders

Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life: data from the REVEAL study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rotavirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and the most frequent cause of severe diarrhoea in children aged less than 5 years. Although the epidemiology of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) is well documented, there are few data on the impact of RVGE on the families of affected children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data associated with the burden of RVGE, including number of working days lost, levels of parental stress, the need for alternative childcare arrangements and additional nappies used, were extracted from questionnaires completed by parents of children participating in a prospective, multicentre, observational study (Rotavirus gastroenteritis Epidemiology and Viral types in Europe Accounting for Losses in public health and society, REVEAL), conducted during 2004-2005 in selected areas of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom to estimate the incidence of RVGE in children aged less than 5 years seeking medical care as a result of AGE.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>1102 children with RVGE were included in the present analysis. The proportion of RVGE cases that required at least one parent or other person to be absent from work was 39%-91% in the hospital setting, 44%-64% in the emergency department, and 20%-64% in primary care. Self-reported levels of parental stress were generally high (mean stress levels, ≥ 5 on a 10-point visual analogue scale). Additional childcare arrangements were required in up to 21% of RVGE episodes. The mean number of nappies used per day during RVGE episodes was approximately double that used when the child was not ill.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Paediatric RVGE cases cause disruption to families and parental stress. The burden of RVGE on children and their families could be substantially reduced by routine rotavirus vaccination of infants.</p

Risk perception among Brazilian individuals with high risk for colorectal cancer and colonoscopy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Risk perception is considered a motivating factor for adopting preventive behaviors. This study aimed to verify the demographic characteristics and cancer family history that are predictors of risk perception and to verify if risk perception is a predictor of colonoscopy adherence.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Individuals with a family colorectal cancer history as indicated by a proband with cancer were interviewed by telephone. They responded to a questionnaire covering demographic characteristics, colonoscopy history and four questions on risk perception. Tests of multiple linear regression and logistic regression were used to identify associations between dependent and independent variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 117 participants belonged to 62 families and had a mean age of 45.2 years. The majority of these individuals were female (74.4%) and from families who met the Amsterdam Criteria (54.7%). The average risk perception was 47.6%, with a median of 50%. The average population perception of individual risk was 55.4%, with a median of 50%. Variables associated with a higher risk perception were age, gender, religion, school level, income, and death of a family member. The variable predicting colonoscopy was receiving medical information regarding risk (odds ratio OR 8.40).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found that family cancer history characteristics (number of relatives with cancer, risk classification) are associated with adequate risk perception. Risk perception does not predict colonoscopy in this sample. The only variable that predicted colonoscopy was receiving medical information recommending screening.</p

Non-travel related Hepatitis E virus genotype 3 infections in the Netherlands; A case series 2004 – 2006

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Human hepatitis E virus (HEV) infections are considered an emerging disease in industrialized countries. In the Netherlands, Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infections have been associated with travel to high-endemic countries. Non-travel related HEV of genotype 3 has been diagnosed occasionally since 2000. A high homology of HEV from humans and pigs suggests zoonotic transmission but direct molecular and epidemiological links have yet to be established. We conducted a descriptive case series to generate hypotheses about possible risk factors for non-travel related HEV infections and to map the genetic diversity of HEV.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A case was defined as a person with HEV infection laboratory confirmed (positive HEV RT-PCR and/or HEV IgM) after 1 January 2004, without travel to a high-endemic country three months prior to onset of illness. For virus identification 148 bp of ORF2 was sequenced and compared with HEV from humans and pigs. We interviewed cases face to face using a structured questionnaire and collected information on clinical and medical history, food preferences, animal and water contact.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We interviewed 19 cases; 17 were male, median age 50 years (25–84 y), 12 lived in the North-East of the Netherlands and 11 had preexisting disease. Most common symptoms were dark urine (n = 16) and icterus (n = 15). Sixteen ate pork ≥ once/week and six owned dogs. Two cases had received blood transfusions in the incubation period. Seventeen cases were viremic (genotype 3 HEV), two had identical HEV sequences but no identified relation. For one case, HEV with identical sequence was identified from serum and surface water nearby his home.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results show that the modes of transmission of genotype-3 HEV infections in the Netherlands remains to be resolved and that host susceptibility may play an important role in development of disease.</p

The Contribution of High Levels of Somatic Symptom Severity to Sickness Absence Duration, Disability and Discharge

Introduction: The primary objectives were to compare the duration of sickness absence in employees with high levels of somatic symptom severity (HLSSS) with employees with lower levels of somatic symptom severity, and to establish the long-term outcomes concerning return to work (RTW), disability and discharge. Secondary objective was to evaluate determinants of the duration of sickness absence in employees with HLSSS. Methods: 489 sick-listed employees registered with five Occupational Health Physician (OHP) group practices were included in this study. We measured their baseline scores for somatic symptoms severity, depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, health anxiety, distress and functional impairment. The OHPs filled in a questionnaire on their diagnosis. A prospective 2-year follow-up was carried out to assess the long-term outcomes concerning sickness absence, and retrospective information was gathered with regard to sickness absence during the 12 months before the employees were sick-listed. Results: The median duration of sickness absence was 78 days longer for employees with HLSSS. They more often remained disabled and were discharged more often, especially due to problems in the relationship between the employer and the employee. HLSSS, health anxiety and older age contributed to a longer duration of sickness absence of employees. Conclusion: High levels of somatic symptom severity are a determinant of prolonged sickness absence, enduring disabilities and health-related job loss. Occupational health physicians should identify employees who are at risk and adhere to guidelines for medically unexplained somatic symptoms

QAPgrid: A Two Level QAP-Based Approach for Large-Scale Data Analysis and Visualization

Background: The visualization of large volumes of data is a computationally challenging task that often promises rewarding new insights. There is great potential in the application of new algorithms and models from combinatorial optimisation. Datasets often contain “hidden regularities” and a combined identification and visualization method should reveal these structures and present them in a way that helps analysis. While several methodologies exist, including those that use non-linear optimization algorithms, severe limitations exist even when working with only a few hundred objects. Methodology/Principal Findings: We present a new data visualization approach (QAPgrid) that reveals patterns of similarities and differences in large datasets of objects for which a similarity measure can be computed. Objects are assigned to positions on an underlying square grid in a two-dimensional space. We use the Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP) as a mathematical model to provide an objective function for assignment of objects to positions on the grid. We employ a Memetic Algorithm (a powerful metaheuristic) to tackle the large instances of this NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem, and we show its performance on the visualization of real data sets. Conclusions/Significance: Overall, the results show that QAPgrid algorithm is able to produce a layout that represents the relationships between objects in the data set. Furthermore, it also represents the relationships between clusters that are feed into the algorithm. We apply the QAPgrid on the 84 Indo-European languages instance, producing a near-optimal layout. Next, we produce a layout of 470 world universities with an observed high degree of correlation with the score used by the Academic Ranking of World Universities compiled in the The Shanghai Jiao Tong University Academic Ranking of World Universities without the need of an ad hoc weighting of attributes. Finally, our Gene Ontology-based study on Saccharomyces cerevisiae fully demonstrates the scalability and precision of our method as a novel alternative tool for functional genomics