Bank Flows and Basel III—Determinants and Regional Differences in Emerging Markets

The global financial crisis has led to a range of reform proposals concerning the regulatory framework governing the banking sector—collectively referred to as “Basel III.” Although the proposed reforms are expected to generate substantial benefits by reducing the frequency and intensity of banking crises, concerns have been raised that, in the short term, the costs of moving to higher capital ratios may lead banks to raise their lending rates and reduce lending. This note explores the near-term implications of Basel III capital regulations on bank flows to emerging markets, based on an analysis of the key determinants of these flows.Basel III, capital adequacy, financial crisis, financial regulation, financial reform, banking cirsis, lending, emerging markets, trade, financing, SMEs

Finding a balance between growth and vulnerability trade-offs : lessons from emerging Europe and the CIS

This paper examines the growth patterns of emerging Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries prior to the global financial crisis. The aim is to draw lessons on what policies can best position these countries going forward to enjoy growth without a buildup in macro and financial vulnerability. Cluster analysis is used to classify these countries across the growth and vulnerability dimensions; namely, a classification into low or high growth outcomes, each of which may occur with low or high vulnerability features. The vulnerability indicators used are multifaceted, covering both the domestic and the external dimensions that have been identified in previous studies as being good indicators of likelihood of crisis -- itself understood as multidimensional. Based on multinomial logit regressions, the initial conditions and the economic policies that might affect the probabilities of being in each of the four possible cluster combinations are examined. Many (if not most) of the countries in the sample experienced very large capital inflows relative to their gross domestic product prior to the crisis, which can complicate macroeconomic management and lead to a buildup of vulnerability. These large inflows were partly due to the high liquidity in global markets and, at least for some countries in the country sample, the particular attractiveness of"new Europe and emerging countries in the region"in the eyes of foreign investors. Nonetheless, the analysis finds strong evidence that the macroeconomic and structural policies that over time influence the structure of the economy, can play a significant role in explaining (and, going forward, in influencing) the different growth and vulnerability patterns experienced by the countries covered in this paper.Currencies and Exchange Rates,Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Conditions and Volatility

Banking flows and financial crisis -- financial interconnectedness and basel III effects

This paper examines the factors that determine banking flows from advanced economies to emerging markets. In addition to the usual determinants of capital flows in terms of global push and local pull factors, it examines the role of bilateral factors, such as growth differentials and economic size, as well as contagion factors and measures of the depth in financial interconnectedness between lenders and borrowers. The analysis finds profound differences across regions. In particular, in spite of the severe impact of the global financial crisis, banking flows in emerging Europe stand out as a more stable region than is the case in other developing regions. Assuming that the determinants of banking flows remain unchanged in the presence of structural changes, the authors use these results to explore the short-term implications of Basel III capital regulations on banking flows to emerging markets.Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Emerging Markets,Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research

Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper studies the causes and consequences of informality and applies the analysis to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. It starts with a discussion on the definition and measures of informality, as well as on the reasons why widespread informality should be of great concern. The paper analyzes informality's main determinants, arguing that informality is not single-caused but results from the combination of poor public services, a burdensome regulatory regime, and weak monitoring and enforcement capacity by the state. This combination is especially explosive when the country suffers from low educational achievement and features demographic pressures and primary production structures. Using cross-country regression analysis, the paper evaluates the empirical relevance of each determinant of informality. It then applies the estimated relationships to most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in order to assess the country-specific relevance of each proposed mechanism.Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Population Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets

The Crisis Hits Home: Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia

The financial crisis and economic downturn threatens the welfare of more than 160 million people who are poor or are just above the poverty line in the economies of Eastern and Central Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Turkey. This note concerns the findings of recent World Bank analysis (Tiongson et al. 2010)1 that uses precrisis household data and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes in these countries to simulate the impact of the crisis on households—transmitted via credit market shocks, price shocks, and income shocks. The adverse effects are widespread, with both poor and nonpoor households being vulnerable. By 2010, for the region as a whole, it is estimated that some 11 million more people will be in poverty and more than 23 million additional people will find themselves just above the poverty line because of the crisis.financial cirsis, stress testing, household income, Europe, Central Asia, welfare, Soviet Union, Turkey, World Bank, shocks

Global Recessions

The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. During each of these episodes, annual real per capita global GDP contracted, and this contraction was accompanied by weakening of other key indicators of global economic activity. The global recessions were highly synchronized internationally, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by the global financial crisis, was by far the deepest and most synchronized of the four recessions. As the epicenter of the crisis, advanced economies felt the brunt of the recession. The subsequent expansion has been the weakest in the post-war period in advanced economies as many of them have struggled to overcome the legacies of the crisis. In contrast, most emerging market and developing economies weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well and delivered a stronger recovery than after previous global recession

Global Recessions

The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. During each of these episodes, annual real per capita global GDP contracted, and this contraction was accompanied by weakening of other key indicators of global economic activity. The global recessions were highly synchronized internationally, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by the global financial crisis, was by far the deepest and most synchronized of the four recessions. As the epicenter of the crisis, advanced economies felt the brunt of the recession. The subsequent expansion has been the weakest in the post-war period in advanced economies as many of them have struggled to overcome the legacies of the crisis. In contrast, most emerging market and developing economies weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well and delivered a stronger recovery than after previous global recession

Is a Global Recession Imminent?

Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible scenarios for the global economy in 2022–24. We report three major findings. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. The policy actions in many countries are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could have larger impacts than envisioned—both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the global growth slowdown. Third, if the degree of global monetary policy tightening markets now expect is not enough to reduce inflation to targets, experience from previous global recessions suggests that the additional tightening needed could cause significant financial stress and increase the likelihood of a global recession next year. These findings imply that policymakers need to carefully calibrate, clearly communicate, and credibly implement their policy actions while considering potential international spillovers, especially given the globally synchronous withdrawal of monetary and fiscal policies. They also need to pursue supply-side measures to overcome constraints confronting labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks

A Case of Mucosal Cancer of the Stomach Treated by Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection after Which Nodal Metastasis Became Evident

An 82-year-old male was referred to our institution for evaluation and treatment of a protruding lesion in the stomach. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) showed a small protruding lesion and a large superficial elevated lesion on the lesser curvature of the stomach (macroscopic type: 0-I and 0-IIa, resp.). CT and endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) visualized a small round lymph node (LN) 11 mm in size near the lesser curvature, although submucosal invasion was not evident. These two lesions were resected en bloc by endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). Pathological examination of the resected specimen showed moderately differentiated tubular adenocarcinoma (tub2) and well-differentiated tubular adenocarcinoma (tub1), respectively, which were limited to the mucosal layer. Because lymphatic-vascular involvement was not detected by hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining, additional gastrectomy was not performed. Two months after ESD, follow-up EUS and CT showed an enlarged LN. EUS-guided fine needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) for the LN revealed metastasis. Therefore, total gastrectomy with LN dissection was performed. His postoperative course was uneventful. After discharge, he has been followed up at the outpatient department without any sign of recurrence for 5 years. Histological reexamination of the ESD specimen using immunohistochemistry showed lymphatic invasion of cancer cells in the lamina propria of the 0-I lesion 13 mm in size

Financial Integration in Emerging Europe: An Enviable Development Opportunity with Tail Risks

This paper draws on the experience of emerging Europe and argues that foreign capital is an enviable development opportunity with tail risks. Financial integration and foreign savings supported growth in the EU12 and EU candidate countries. We argue that this was possible because of EU membership (actual or potential) and its role as an anchor for expectations. In contrast, the eastern partnership states did not benefit from the foreign savings-growth link. But financial integration also led to a buildup of vulnerabilities and now exposes emerging Europe to prolonged uncertainty and financial deleveraging due to eurozone developments. Nonetheless, we believe that external imbalances should not be eradicated-nor should emerging Europe pursue a policy of self-insurance. Instead, what we refer to as an acyclical fiscal policy stance could serve to counterbalance private sector behavior. Going forward, a more proactive macroprudential policy will also be needed to limit financial system vulnerabilities when external imbalances are large