Update and, internal and temporal-validation of the FRANCE-2 and ACC-TAVI early-mortality prediction models for Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI) using data from the Netherlands heart registration (NHR)

Background: The predictive performance of the models FRANCE-2 and ACC-TAVI for early-mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI) can decline over time and can be enhanced by updating them on new populations. We aim to update and internally and temporally validate these models using a recent TAVI-cohort from the Netherlands Heart Registration (NHR). Methods: We used data of TAVI-patients treated in 2013–2017. For each original-model, the best update-method (model-intercept, model-recalibration, or model-revision) was selected by a closed-testing procedure. We internally validated both updated models with 1000 bootstrap samples. We also updated the models on the 2013–2016 dataset and temporally validated them on the 2017-dataset. Performance measures were the Area-Under ROC-curve (AU-ROC), Brier-score, and calibration graphs. Results: We included 6177 TAVI-patients, with 4.5% observed early-mortality. The selected update-method for FRANCE-2 was model-intercept-update. Internal validation showed an AU-ROC of 0.63 (95%CI 0.62–0.66) and Brier-score of 0.04 (0.04–0.05). Calibration graphs show that it overestimates early-mortality. In temporal-validation, the AU-ROC was 0.61 (0.53–0.67). The selected update-method for ACC-TAVI was model-revision. In internal-validation, the AU-ROC was 0.63 (0.63–0.66) and Brier-score was 0.04 (0.04–0.05). The updated ACC-TAVI calibrates well up to a probability of 20%, and subsequently underestimates early-mortality. In temporal-validation the AU-ROC was 0.65 (0.58–0.72). Conclusion: Internal-validation of the updated models FRANCE-2 and ACC-TAVI with data from the NHR demonstrated improved performance, which was better than in external-validation studies and comparable to the original studies. In temporal-validation, ACC-TAVI outperformed FRANCE-2 because it suffered less from changes over time

Salt intake and blood pressure response to percutaneous renal denervation in resistant hypertension

The effect of lowering sympathetic nerve activity by renal denervation (RDN) is highly variable. With the exception of office systolic blood pressure (BP), predictors of the BP-lowering effect have not been identified. Because dietary sodium intake influences sympathetic drive, and, conversely, sympathetic activity influences salt sensitivity in hypertension, we investigated 24-hour urinary sodium excretion in participants of the SYMPATHY trial. SYMPATHY investigated RDN in patients with resistant hypertension. Both 24-hour ambulatory and office BP measurements were end points. No relationship was found for baseline sodium excretion and change in BP 6 months after RDN in multivariable-adjusted regression analysis. Change in the salt intake–measured BP relationships at 6 months vs baseline was used as a measure for salt sensitivity. BP was 8 mm Hg lower with similar salt intake after RDN, suggesting a decrease in salt sensitivity. However, the change was similar in the control group, and thus not attributable to RDN