A microsimulation study of the benefits and costs of screening for colorectal cancer

This thesis examines the benefits and costs of screening for colorectal cancer in the context of an organised population screening programme. It uses microsimulation modelling to derive an optimally cost-effective screening protocol for various combinations of the available screening tests. ¶ First a mathematical model for the natural history of colorectal cancer is derived, based on analyses of Australian population and hospital-based cancer registries combined with data from published studies. Then a model for population based screening is derived based mainly on data from published screening studies, including the four major published randomised controlled trials of faecal occult blood test (FOBT) screening. These two models are used to simulate the application of a screening programme to the Australian population. The simulations are applied to a period of 40 years following 1990 (the study’s base year), with both costs and benefits discounted back to the base year at an annual rate of 3%. ¶ ..

An Improbable Solution to the Underluminosity of 2M1207B: A Hot Protoplanet Collision Afterglow

We introduce an alternative hypothesis to explain the very low luminosity of the cool (L-type) companion to the ~25 M_Jup ~8 Myr-old brown dwarf 2M1207A. Recently, Mohanty et al. (2007) found that effective temperature estimates for 2M1207B (1600 +- 100 K) are grossly inconsistent with its lying on the same isochrone as the primary, being a factor of ~10 underluminous at all bands between I (0.8 um) and L' (3.6 um). Mohanty et al. explain this discrepency by suggesting that 2M1207B is an 8 M_Jup object surrounded by an edge-on disk comprised of large dust grains producing 2.5^m of achromatic extinction. We offer an alternative explanation: the apparent flux reflects the actual source luminosity. Given the temperature, we infer a small radius (~49,000 km), and for a range of plausible densities, we estimate a mass < M_Jup. We suggest that 2M1207B is a hot protoplanet collision afterglow and show that the radiative timescale for such an object is >~1% the age of the system. If our hypothesis is correct, the surface gravity of 2M1207B should be an order of magnitude lower than predicted by Mohanty et al. (2007).Comment: ApJ Letters, in press (11 pages

Reply to the correspondence: "On the fracture toughness of bioinspired ceramic materials"

This is a reply to the correspondence of Prof. Robert Ritchie: "On the fracture toughness of bioinspired ceramic materials", submitted to Nature Materials, which discusses the fracture toughness values of the following papers: Bouville, F., Maire, E., Meille, S., Van de Moort\`ele, B., Stevenson, A. J., & Deville, S. (2014). Strong, tough and stiff bioinspired ceramics from brittle constituents. Nature Materials, 13(5), 508-514 and Le Ferrand, H., Bouville, F., Niebel, T. P., & Studart, A. R. (2015). Magnetically assisted slip casting of bioinspired heterogeneous composites. Nature Materials, 14(11), 1172-1172.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Using GLM Flash Density, Flash Area, and Flash Energy to Diagnose Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensification

Increased lightning in tropical cyclones (TCs) is typically associated with intensification, but significant lightning outbreaks are also observed in weakening storms. The total number of lightning flashes in a TC is not always a reliable indicator of TC intensity evolution. Issues with the range and detection efficiency of ground-based networks, particularly for intracloud lightning. Physical processes such as vertical wind shear can intensify asymmetric convection while also weakening the TC. The commissioning of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard GOES-16 and GOES-17 marked, for the first time, the presence of an operational lightning detector in geostationary orbit. In addition to flash density (the number of flashes per unit area per unit time), GLM also provides continuous observations of flash area and total optical energy

The Lawyer\u27s Toolbox: Teaching Students About Risk Allocation

This Article is the transcript of a panel presented at Emory’s Third Biennial Conference on Transactional Education. The panel focuses on techniques for teaching risk allocation as part of transactional skills classes. The panelists describe their approaches to teaching risk allocation, from syllabus design to final evaluations. How can a professor help students to understand the basic concepts of risk, the role risk plays in business and legal decisions, and how they can help clients manage risk. The techniques for teaching risk allocation include hypotheticals, visual aids, and hands-on assignments. The panelists each take their students down a different path to arrive at similar locations

The Lawyer\u27s Toolbox: Teaching Students About Risk Allocation

This Article is the transcript of a panel presented at Emory’s Third Biennial Conference on Transactional Education. The panel focuses on techniques for teaching risk allocation as part of transactional skills classes. The panelists describe their approaches to teaching risk allocation, from syllabus design to final evaluations. How can a professor help students to understand the basic concepts of risk, the role risk plays in business and legal decisions, and how they can help clients manage risk. The techniques for teaching risk allocation include hypotheticals, visual aids, and hands-on assignments. The panelists each take their students down a different path to arrive at similar locations