How Accurate are Expected Retirement Savings?

This paper examines the ability of workers nearing retirement to report their expected retirement savings, where retirement savings refers to funds held in savings, checking, and investment-type accounts. Responding to such a question is likely to be difficult, even for those who are near retirement, because it requires respondents to assess when they will retire, their likely income stream between the survey date and retirement, and what portfolio choices will be made at retirement. Based on two nationally representative surveys collected two decades apart, we find that most individuals provide some response to the question, particularly when they are allowed to provide a range. Moreover, the responses that are given have substantial predictive power for actual retirement savings, even when compared to the savings in the initial wave. Despite this predictive power, there is evidence that responses do not satisfy the more stringent requirements of the rational expectations hypothesis.

Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings

Researchers in a variety of important economic literatures have assumed that current income variables as proxies for lifetime income variables follow the textbook errors-in-variables model. In an analysis of Social Security records containing nearly career-long earnings histories for the Health and Retirement Study sample, we find that the relationship between current and lifetime earnings departs substantially from the textbook model in ways that vary systematically over the life cycle. Our results can enable more appropriate analysis of and correction for errors-in-variables bias in a wide range of research that uses current earnings to proxy for lifetime earnings.

Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations

Previous research finds a systematic decrease in consumption at retirement, a finding that is inconsistent with the Life-Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis if retirement is an expected event. In this paper, we use workers' subjective beliefs about their retirement dates as an instrument for retirement. After demonstrating that subjective retirement expectations are strong predictors of subsequent retirement decisions, we still find a retirement consumption decline for workers who retire when expected. However, our estimates of this consumption fall are about a third less than those found when we instead rely on the instrumental variables strategy used in prior studies. Finally, we examine a number of hypotheses that have been put forward to explain the retirement consumption decline. We find little empirical support for these explanations in our data.

Recent Trends in Resource Sharing Among the Poor

Motivated in part by the dramatic changes in the United States economy and public assistance policies, many researchers have examined the changes in the resources of the low-income population over the last two decades, with particular attention paid to income from earnings and public assistance programs. One source of income that has received comparatively little attention is income from private transfers. However, private transfers may be a key source of support for low-income individuals, especially for those who have had little attachment to the labor force or who have experienced reductions in public assistance. In this paper, we provide a conceptual discussion of private transfers drawing on several related literatures and provide new empirical evidence regarding the significance of private of transfers as a source income. We find that private transfers are an important source of income for many less-skilled households, the contribution of private transfers to total income has increased over time, and shared living arrangements are a common mechanism for providing assistance.

How Important Are Wages to the Elderly? Evidence from the New Beneficiary Data System and the Social Security Earnings Test

More than 40 percent of Social Security beneficiaries continue to work after age 65. This research investigates the extent to which these individuals substitute labor across periods in response to anticipated wage changes induced by the Social Security earnings test. While we find that a disproportionate number of individuals choose earnings within a few percentage points of the earnings limit, we find no evidence that these individuals substitute labor supply between

Food Insecurity or Poverty? Measuring Need-Related Dietary Adequacy

We examine the extent to which food insecurity questions and the standard poverty measure are correlated with various dietary and physiologic outcomes. Our findings suggest that the correlations vary tremendously by age. We find that the food insecurity questions are correlated with the dietary outcomes of older household members, but that they are not consistently related to the diets of children. In contrast, poverty predicts dietary outcomes among preschoolers. Among adults, both poverty and food insecurity questions are good predictors of many dietary outcomes.

Breakfast of Champions? The School Breakfast Program and the Nutrition of Children and Families

We use the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) III to examine the effect of the availability of the school breakfast program (SBP). Our work builds on previous research in four ways: First, we develop a transparent difference-in-differences strategy to account for unobserved differences between students with access to SBP and those without. Second, we examine serum measures of nutrient in addition to intakes based on dietary recall data. Third, we ask whether the SBP improves the diet by increasing/or decreasing the intake of nutrients relative to meaningful threshold levels. Fourth, we examine the effect of the SBP on other members of the family besides the school-aged child. We have three main findings. First, the SBP helps students build good eating habits: SBP increases scores on the healthy eating index, reduces the percentage of calories from fat, and reduces the probability of low fiber intake. Second, the SBP reduces the probability of serum micronutrient deficiencies in vitamin C, vitamin E, and folate, and it increases the probability that children meet USDA recommendations for potassium and iron intakes. Since we find no effect on total calories these results indicate that the program improves the quality of food consumed. Finally, in households with school-aged children, both preschool children and adults have healthier diets and consume less fat when the SBP is available. These results suggest that school nutrition programs may be an effective way to combat both nutritional deficiencies and excess consumption among children and their families.

Econometric Studies of Long-Run Earnings Inequality: Dissertation Summary

My dissertation comprises three econometric studies of long-run earnings inequality. Two studies are empirical analyses of U.S. data, one contributing to the well-established literature on male earnings inequality and the other extending the analysis to the understudied level of families. These empirical chapters focus on documenting trends in long-run earnings inequality and evaluating the potential causes. The third study develops an econometric technique that is necessary to complete the empirical analyses, specifically, how to use a Generalized Method of Moments estimator with an incomplete data set. Because this estimator is becoming increasingly popular and because researchers often face the prospect of using incomplete data, the study will be useful to the applied researcher

Heat or Eat? Cold Weather Shocks and Nutrition in Poor American Families

We examine the effects of cold weather periods on family budgets and on nutritional outcomes in poor American families. Expenditures on food and home fuels are tracked by linking the Consumer Expenditure Survey to temperature data. Using the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we track calorie consumption, dietary quality, vitamin deficiencies, and anemia in summer and winter months. We find that both rich and poor families increase fuel expenditures in response to unusually cold weather (a 10 degree F drop below normal). At same time, poor families reduce food expenditures by roughly the same amount as the increase in fuel expenditures, while rich families increase food expenditures. Poor adults and children reduce caloric intake by roughly 200 calories during winter months, unlike richer adults and children. In sensitivity analyses, we find that decreases in food expenditure are most pronounced outside the South. We conclude that poor parents and their children outside the South spend and eat less food during cold weather temperature shocks. We surmise that existing social programs fail to buffer against these shocks.

The Economic Status of Elderly Divorced Women

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