Is the East African Community an Optimum Currency Area?

This paper investigates whether the East African Community (EAC) constitutes an optimum currency area (OCA) by estimating the degree and evolution of business cycle synchronization between the EAC countries. We also investigate whether the degree of business cycle synchronization has improved after signing of the EAC treaty in 1999. The degree of business cycle synchronization is estimated using an unobserved components model of structural shocks obtained from a structural VAR model. We then use a time-varying parameter model to estimate the evolution of business cycle synchronization. Our results indicate that the proportion of shocks that is common across different countries is small, implying weak synchronization. However, we also find that the degree of synchronization has improved after signing of the EAC treaty in 1999.East African Community, Optimum Currency Area, Business Cycle Synchronization, Structural VAR, State-Space Model

Sino-African relations: some solutions and strategies to the policy syndromes

We survey about 110 recently published studies on Sino-African relations; put some structure on the documented issues before suggesting some solutions and strategies to the identified policy syndromes. The documented issues classified into eight main strands include, China: targeting nations with abundant natural resources; focusing on countries with bad governance; not hiring local workers; outbidding other countries by flouting environmental and social standards; importing workers that do not integrate into domestic society and living in extremely simple conditions; exhibiting low linkages between her operations and local businesses; exporting low quality products to Africa; and the emergence of China hindering Africa’s development

Is the East African Community an Optimum Currency Area?

This paper investigates whether the East African Community (EAC) constitutes an optimum currency area (OCA) by estimating the degree and evolution of business cycle synchronization between the EAC countries. We also investigate whether the degree of business cycle synchronization has improved after signing of the EAC treaty in 1999. The degree of business cycle synchronization is estimated using an unobserved components model of structural shocks obtained from a structural VAR model. We then use a time-varying parameter model to estimate the evolution of business cycle synchronization. Our results indicate that the proportion of shocks that is common across different countries is small, implying weak synchronization. However, we also find that the degree of synchronization has improved after signing of the EAC treaty in 1999

When is Foreign Aid Effective in Fighting Terrorism? Threshold Evidence

Building on previous literature, we assess when foreign aid is effective in fighting terrorism using quantile regressions on a panel of 78 developing countries for the period 1984-2008. Bilteral, multilateral and total aid indicators are used whereas terrorism includes: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. We consistently establish that foreign aid (bilateral, multilateral and total) is effective at fighting terrorism exclusively in countries where existing levels of transnational terrorism are highest. This finding is consistent with our theoretical underpinnings because donors have been documented to allocate more aid towards fighting transnational terrorist activities in recipient countries because they are more likely to target their interests. Moreover, the propensity of donor interest at stake is likely to increase with initial levels of transnational terrorism, such that the effect of foreign aid is most significant in recipient countries with the highest levels of transnational terrorism. Policy implications and future research directions are discussed

When is Foreign Aid Effective in Fighting Terrorism? Threshold Evidence

Building on previous literature, we assess when foreign aid is effective in fighting terrorism using quantile regressions on a panel of 78 developing countries for the period 1984-2008. Bilteral, multilateral and total aid indicators are used whereas terrorism includes: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. We consistently establish that foreign aid (bilateral, multilateral and total) is effective at fighting terrorism exclusively in countries where existing levels of transnational terrorism are highest. This finding is consistent with our theoretical underpinnings because donors have been documented to allocate more aid towards fighting transnational terrorist activities in recipient countries because they are more likely to target their interests. Moreover, the propensity of donor interest at stake is likely to increase with initial levels of transnational terrorism, such that the effect of foreign aid is most significant in recipient countries with the highest levels of transnational terrorism. Policy implications and future research directions are discussed

The Effects of Remittances on Output per Worker in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Production Function Approach

This paper uses a production function to examine the channels through which remittances affect output per worker in 31 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1980-2010. We find that remittances directly increase output per worker if complemented with education. The indirect effects vary with the economic characteristics of the recipient nations: while remittances have increased human capital among the low-income nations, among the upper-middle-income nations, they have mostly increased total factor productivity, but are still inversely related to factor inputs among the lower-middle-income nations of SSA. Finally, remittances are more effective when institutional risk is reducing

Is the East African Community an Optimum Currency Area?

This paper investigates whether the East African Community (EAC) constitutes an optimum currency area (OCA) by estimating the degree and evolution of business cycle synchronization between the EAC countries. We also investigate whether the degree of business cycle synchronization has improved after signing of the EAC treaty in 1999. The degree of business cycle synchronization is estimated using an unobserved components model of structural shocks obtained from a structural VAR model. We then use a time-varying parameter model to estimate the evolution of business cycle synchronization. Our results indicate that the proportion of shocks that is common across different countries is small, implying weak synchronization. However, we also find that the degree of synchronization has improved after signing of the EAC treaty in 1999

The Effects of Remittances on Output per Worker in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Production Function Approach

This paper uses a production function to examine the channels through which remittances affect output per worker in 31 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1980-2010. We find that remittances directly increase output per worker if complemented with education. The indirect effects vary with the economic characteristics of the recipient nations: while remittances have increased human capital among the low-income nations, among the upper-middle-income nations, they have mostly increased total factor productivity, but are still inversely related to factor inputs among the lower-middle-income nations of SSA. Finally, remittances are more effective when institutional risk is reducing

Sino-African relations: some solutions and strategies to the policy syndromes

We survey about 110 recently published studies on Sino-African relations; put some structure on the documented issues before suggesting some solutions and strategies to the identified policy syndromes. The documented issues classified into eight main strands include, China: targeting nations with abundant natural resources; focusing on countries with bad governance; not hiring local workers; outbidding other countries by flouting environmental and social standards; importing workers that do not integrate into domestic society and living in extremely simple conditions; exhibiting low linkages between her operations and local businesses; exporting low quality products to Africa; and the emergence of China hindering Africa’s development

The Effectiveness of Development Aid for Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Purpose: Agriculture is the major source of livelihood for the majority population in Sub-Saharan Africa but its productivity is not only low it has started showing signs of decline since 2012. The paper seeks to find out whether official development assistance for agriculture is effective. Design/Methodology/Approach: The data for development assistance for agriculture are broken down into the major agricultural sectors in receiving countries. The empirical evidence is based on the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments to assess the degree of responsiveness of agricultural productivity to development assistance. Findings: There is a positive relationship between development assistance and agricultural productivity in general. However, when broken down into the major agricultural recipient sectors, there is a substitution effect between food crop production and industrial crop production. Better institutions and economic freedom are found to enable agricultural productivity growth, and to increase the effectiveness of development assistance. The structural economic transformation associated with agricultural development assistance is also found to be weak. Practical Implications: Allocation of development assistance for agriculture is primarily determined by need, although expected effectiveness also increases the assistance receipts. Agricultural assistance policies could focus more on building productive capacity to reduce the need while boosting effectiveness. Originality: Breaking down data into agricultural recipient sectors, and controlling for the potential spurious correlation under the assumption that more development assistance could be allocated where agricultural productivity is already increasing due to some other factors