The "LifeCourse" model, a competing risk cohort microsimulation model: source code and basic concepts of the generic microsimulation programming language Modgen

This paper documents the source code of “LifeCourse”, a simple competing risk microsimulation model initially developed alongside a study on fertility decline in Bulgaria and Russia. “LifeCourse” is programmed in the generic microsimulation language Modgen developed at Statistics Canada. In the context of this contribution, the model is introduced step by step as template for other microsimulation applications and as training tool for demographic microsimulation using Modgen.microsimulation

Childlessness and the concentration of reproduction in Austria

In this paper we study the changes of reproduction concentration among women, the levels of childlessness, individual factors influencing childlessness, and the contribution of childlessness to the concentration of reproduction in Austria for the female age cohorts 1917-1961. International comparative studies find a decline in the concentration of reproduction in the last century for all western countries, a trend that was reversed for the most recent cohorts that have reached the end of their reproductive period. This reversal was mainly triggered by an increase of childlessness, a result that can be confirmed also for Austria. The country has one of the highest levels of childlessness, both currently and historically, and changes in the level of childlessness are very pronounced. Austria has very low fertility, too; between the world wars it even witnessed the lowest period fertility in the world. While cohort fertility rates peaked during the baby-boom with 2.5 children per women, fertility decreased considerably for more recent age cohorts. The recent changes in fertility can be attributed partly to composition effects resulting from the educational expansion of the last decades. As our analysis shows, even in the times of the baby boom, cohort fertility exceeded the reproductive level only for the lowest of eight different educational groups, and this group is rapidly decreasing in size. Besides the strong impact of educational on cohort fertility, childlessness and concentration measures of reproduction, a detailed study based on micro-census data reveals strong urban-rural differentials in the demographic changes of the last decades. We can conclude that the recent re-increase in reproduction concentration is an entirely urban phenomenon. Micro-census data also allow for the study of intergenerational dynamics. Comparing the educational level of women with their parents’ educational attainment, we found a strong positive effect on childlessness of downward mobility in the lower end of the educational spectrum. In the upper end of the educational spectrum we found a strong positive effect on childlessness of upward mobility.Austria, childless couples, first birth

Persistence and change of the relative difference in educational attainment by ethno-cultural group and gender in Canada

This article presents analytical findings on the persistence and change of the relative difference in educational attainment by ethno-cultural group and gender in Canada. As these trends cannot be observed from a single data source, a modelling technique to integrate longitudinal data lacking ethno-cultural detail with cross-sectional Census data was developed. First- and second-generation immigrants and/or members of most visible minority groups on average reach higher educational levels than their Canadian-born peers not belonging to a visible minority. This study reveals that the relative educational differences between the studied groups are both important in extent and remarkably stable over birth cohorts. The research presented in this paper was conducted in the context of Statistics Canada’s population projection microsimulation model Demosim. Demosim marks an important milestone in establishing microsimulation for official population projections. It reflects the demand for models which can go beyond age and sex, capturing geographical detail, ethnic diversity, educational attainment and other characteristics.

The contextual database of the Generations and Gender Program: overview, conceptual framework and the link to the Generations and Gender Survey

This paper follows two aims. First it intends to give an overview of the contextual database of the Generations and Gender Program and how it is linked to the Generations and Gender Survey. Secondly, it provides a documentation of the approaches taken towards the conceptual definition and construction of the database. The document consists of two parts. The first gives a brief description of the underlying ideas of the database and the approach taken in order to develop its conceptual framework and construct the database. The second part is a note on the link between the Generations and Gender Survey and the contextual database. Starting from the GGS questionnaire, the main interfaces between micro data and contextual domains are investigated.data collection

The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Program

The increasing recognition that the study of human behaviors has to take into account the multiple contexts in which they occur has opened a promising research avenue in social sciences. It also presents new challenges, e.g., to complement micro-level surveys with the collection of meaningful contextual data within a common conceptual framework. The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Program aims at responding to the new data demands by providing a comparative collection of around 210 variables on a national and sub-national level, thus complementing the individual-level data collected in the Generations and Gender Survey.World, comparative analysis, data banks

Concentration of reproduction in Austria: general trends and differentials by educational attainment and urban-rural setting

In this paper, we explore the inter-individual diversity in fertility among women in Austria for the female birth cohorts 1917-1961. Comparative studies revealed that all Western countries have witnessed a decline in the concentration of reproduction during the 20th century, a trend that has reversed for the most recent cohorts that have reached the end of their reproductive period. This reversal, mainly triggered by an increase in childlessness, has been far less pronounced in Austria and limited to urban municipalities. Changes in fertility and concentration have followed very different trajectories by educational attainment as well as by the type of municipality in which women lived at age 15. Within educational categories, we found large differentials by profession and intergenerational educational mobility. A consequence of the concentration of reproduction is that the level of cohort fertility differs from the average sibship size seen from the children’s perspective. In the Austrian case, in contrast to the pronounced fertility differentials by educational attainment, the average sibship size experienced by children became almost independent of parents’ education. In difference to the negative correlation between fertility and concentration found in earlier studies for the first demographic transition and the baby boom, the fertility level and concentration moved in the same direction, and did so for an extended time period following the baby boom, accelerating changes from the children’s perspective.Austria, family composition, fertility trends

The Potential of Dynamic Microsimulation in Family Studies: a Review and some Lessons for FAMSIM+

Die Entwicklung von Simulationsmodellen nimmt in der sozioökonomischen Abteilung einen zentralen Forschungsschwerpunkt ein, dies einerseits in der Form von Hochrechnungsmodellen zur Berechnung von Kosten und Verteilungswirkungen familienpolitischer Maßnahmen (Förderungen) - hierzu wurden insbesondere Modelle und Softwarepakete für die Bundesländer Niederösterreich und Wien entwickelt - und andererseits in der Form des dynamischen Mikrosimulationsmodells FAMSIM. Dynamische Mikrosimulation erlaubt es, die Individuen einer Bevölkerung über ihren ganzen Lebenslauf im Computer zu simulieren, was insbesondere zur Erforschung demographischer Prozesse dient bzw. die Erforschung der Auswirkungen dieser Prozesse auf andere Systeme - wie etwa Pensionssysteme. Statische "cell-based" Modelle zur Berechnung der Kosten von Familienförderungen in der Form frei parametrisierbarer Simulationsmodelle auf Basis von realen Antragsdaten zu Förderungen: Anwendungen in Wien und Niederösterreich. Modellierung, Programmierung und ökonometrische Schätzung des dynamischen FAMSIM Modells für 5 Europäische Länder; Internationale Vergleichsstudien zu typischen "Risikomustern" betreffend dem Beginn und Ende von Partnerschaften, Erwerbstätigkeit, Ausbildungen sowie Schwangerschaften/Geburten. Zusammenführung der statischen und dynamischen Modelle zu einem dynamischen Familien - Mikrosimulationsmodell FAMSIM+ zur Erforschung demographischer Prozesse (wie sich verändernder Familienstrukturen) sowie der Evaluierung der Kosten und Wirkung familienrelevanter Maßnahmen im Quer- und Längsschnitt. Dieser Ansatz erlaubt zum Beispiel die Erforschung der Auswirkungen von Erwerbsunterbrechungen zur Kinderbetreuung auf die gesamte weitere Erwerbskarriere einschließlich Pensionsansprüche. Nationale und internationale Kooperationen für verschiedene Anwendungsgebiete, wie derzeit für Bildungsprognosen (Kooperation mit dem Institut für Bildungsforschung der Wirtschaft) sowie im Bereich Altenpflege (Netzwerkpartner im International Network for the Research on Elderly Care INREC)

Family Microsimulation (FAMSIM): Socio-economic Analysis, Simulation and Surveys

Die Entwicklung von Simulationsmodellen nimmt in der sozioökonomischen Abteilung einen zentralen Forschungsschwerpunkt ein, dies einerseits in der Form von Hochrechnungsmodellen zur Berechnung von Kosten und Verteilungswirkungen familienpolitischer Maßnahmen (Förderungen) - hierzu wurden insbesondere Modelle und Softwarepakete für die Bundesländer Niederösterreich und Wien entwickelt - und andererseits in der Form des dynamischen Mikrosimulationsmodells FAMSIM. Dynamische Mikrosimulation erlaubt es, die Individuen einer Bevölkerung über ihren ganzen Lebenslauf im Computer zu simulieren, was insbesondere zur Erforschung demographischer Prozesse dient bzw. die Erforschung der Auswirkungen dieser Prozesse auf andere Systeme - wie etwa Pensionssysteme. Statische „cell-based“ Modelle zur Berechnung der Kosten von Familienförderungen in der Form frei parametrisierbarer Simulationsmodelle auf Basis von realen Antragsdaten zu Förderungen: Anwendungen in Wien und Niederösterreich. Modellierung, Programmierung und ökonometrische Schätzung des dynamischen FAMSIM Modells für 5 Europäische Länder; Internationale Vergleichsstudien zu typischen „Risikomustern“ betreffend dem Beginn und Ende von Partnerschaften, Erwerbstätigkeit, Ausbildungen sowie Schwangerschaften/Geburten. Zusammenführung der statischen und dynamischen Modelle zu einem dynamischen Familien - Mikrosimulationsmodell FAMSIM+ zur Erforschung demographischer Prozesse (wie sich verändernder Familienstrukturen) sowie der Evaluierung der Kosten und Wirkung familienrelevanter Maßnahmen im Quer- und Längsschnitt. Dieser Ansatz erlaubt zum Beispiel die Erforschung der Auswirkungen von Erwerbsunterbrechungen zur Kinderbetreuung auf die gesamte weitere Erwerbskarriere einschließlich Pensionsansprüche. Nationale und internationale Kooperationen für verschiedene Anwendungsgebiete, wie derzeit für Bildungsprognosen (Kooperation mit dem Institut für Bildungsforschung der Wirtschaft) sowie im Bereich Altenpflege (Netzwerkpartner im International Network for the Research on Elderly Care INREC)

The Influence of Education on quantum, timing and spacing of births in Austria

The aim of this paper is to study the quantum, timing and spacing of births in Austria and their changes over time by educational groups and school leaving age. Rather than taking the age as such, we take the school leaving age as reference point in our analysis, as - with the exception of university drop-outs that are partly caused by pregnancy - very few women give birth while being in education. As the analysis shows, the recent overall increase of age at first birth can be observed in all educational groups and is not (only) the result of staying in the education system for a longer time. As expected, parity progression rates vary considerably between different educational groups and follow different patterns of change. Changes of norms - i.e. to and from the two-child norm - seem to be more pronounced in urban areas, were drops in parity progression rates were biggest for higher educated women. As the educational composition of the population changes in the course of time, this will considerably influence overall fertility rates in future, even assuming unchanged individual fertility behavior of women of given educational groups. This paper is also understood as background paper in the context of the ongoing development of the FAMSIM+, family microsimulation model, that shows fertility decisions along with other life careers, such as education, partnership and job careers. Besides other applications, FAMSIM+ will serve to study the impact of various dynamics, like changes of timing and educational changes, on fertility changes