Vitamin A Supplementation and Other Predictors of Anemia Among Children from Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.

The associations of hemoglobin, hematocrit, and packed cell volume with socioeconomic factors, malaria, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and nutritional status were examined among 687 children admitted to hospital with pneumonia participating in a double blind, placebo-controlled trial of vitamin A supplementation. Children were randomized to receive 2 doses of vitamin A (200,000 IU) or placebo at baseline, and additional doses at 4 and 8 months after discharge from hospital. Hemoglobin levels were measured at enrollment and, on a subset of 161 children, during follow-up. At baseline, hemoglobin concentration was positively associated with the number of possessions in the household, maternal level of education and quality of water supply, and inversely related to malaria infection after controlling for potential confounding variables. Children infected with HIV experienced a significant fall in mean hemoglobin levels over time. The risk of developing severe anemia (< 7 g/dL) during follow-up was lower for children who were breastfed for longer than 18 months as compared to those with less than 6 months of breastfeeding (adjusted prevalence ratio = 0.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.02, 0.93; P = 0.04), and higher for children over two years of age as compared to 6 to 11 months-old infants (adjusted prevalence ratio = 8.11, 95% CI = 1.2, 55.8; P = 0.03). Children with repeated diagnoses of malaria had 4.1 times the risk of developing severe anemia than did children without the diagnosis (95% CI = 1.3, 13.5; P = 0.02). Vitamin A supplements were associated with an overall nonsignificant reduction of 14% in the risk of developing severe anemia (adjusted prevalence ratio = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.37, 1.99; P = 0.73). We conclude that malaria, HIV infection, low socioeconomic status, and short duration of breastfeeding are strong and independent determinants of adverse hematologic profiles in this population

Theoretical study of finite temperature spectroscopy in van der Waals clusters. II Time-dependent absorption spectra

Using approximate partition functions and a master equation approach, we investigate the statistical relaxation toward equilibrium in selected CaAr$_n$ clusters. The Gaussian theory of absorption (previous article) is employed to calculate the average photoabsorption intensity associated with the 4s^2-> 4s^14p^1 transition of calcium as a function of time during relaxation. In CaAr_6 and CaAr_10 simple relaxation is observed with a single time scale. CaAr_13 exhibits much slower dynamics and the relaxation occurs over two distinct time scales. CaAr_37 shows much slower relaxation with multiple transients, reminiscent of glassy behavior due to competition between different low-energy structures. We interpret these results in terms of the underlying potential energy surfaces for these clusters.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figure

Response to the Letter to the Editor

This paper has attracted interest around the world from the media (both TV and newspapers). In addition, we have received letters, emails and telephone calls. One of our favorites was a voicemail message asking us to return a call to Australia at which point we would learn who really killed JFK. We welcome the opportunity to respond to the letter to the editor from Mr. Fiorentino. Mr. Fiorentino claims that our ``statement relating to the likelihood of a second assassin based on the premise of three or more separate bullets is demonstrably false.'' In response we would like to simply quote from page 327 of Gerald Posner's book Case Closed, one of the most well known works supporting the single assassin theory: ``If Connally was hit by another bullet, it had to be fired from a second shooter, since the Warren Commission's own reconstructions showed that Oswald could not have operated the bolt and refired in 1.4 seconds.'' Mr. Fiorentino also claims that the ``second fatal flaw is the use of a rather uncomplicated formula based on Bayes Theorem.'' Let $E$ denote the evidence and $T$ denote the theory that there were just two bullets (and hence a single shooter). We used Bayes Theorem to hypothetically calculate $P(T|E)$ from $P(E|T)$ and the prior probability $P(T)$. In order to make $P(T|E)$ ten times more likely than $P(\bar{T}|E)$, the ratio of the prior probabilities [i.e., $P(T) / P(\bar{T})$] would have to be greater than 15. Thus, we again conclude that this casts serious doubt on Dr. Guinn's conclusion that the evidence supported just two bullets. Sadly, this is far from the first time that probability has been misunderstood and/or misapplied in a case of public interest. A notable British example is the Clark case. See Nobles and Schiff (2005) for details. Finally, we welcome and, in fact, encourage members of the scientific community to provide alternative analyses of the data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS154 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Chemical and forensic analysis of JFK assassination bullet lots: Is a second shooter possible?

The assassination of President John Fitzgerald Kennedy (JFK) traumatized the nation. In this paper we show that evidence used to rule out a second assassin is fundamentally flawed. This paper discusses new compositional analyses of bullets reportedly to have been derived from the same batch as those used in the assassination. The new analyses show that the bullet fragments involved in the assassination are not nearly as rare as previously reported. In particular, the new test results are compared to key bullet composition testimony presented before the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Matches of bullets within the same box of bullets are shown to be much more likely than indicated in the House Select Committee on Assassinations' testimony. Additionally, we show that one of the ten test bullets is considered a match to one or more assassination fragments. This finding means that the bullet fragments from the assassination that match could have come from three or more separate bullets. Finally, this paper presents a case for reanalyzing the assassination bullet fragments and conducting the necessary supporting scientific studies. These analyses will shed light on whether the five bullet fragments constitute three or more separate bullets. If the assassination fragments are derived from three or more separate bullets, then a second assassin is likely, as the additional bullet would not easily be attributable to the main suspect, Mr. Oswald, under widely accepted shooting scenarios [see Posner (1993), Case Closed, Bantam, New York].Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS119 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Predictors of Stunting, Wasting and Underweight among Tanzanian Children Born to HIV-Infected Women.

Children born to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women are susceptible to undernutrition, but modifiable risk factors and the time course of the development of undernutrition have not been well characterized. The objective of this study was to identify maternal, socioeconomic and child characteristics that are associated with stunting, wasting and underweight among Tanzanian children born to HIV-infected mothers, followed from 6 weeks of age for 24 months. Maternal and socioeconomic characteristics were recorded during pregnancy, data pertaining to the infant's birth were collected immediately after delivery, morbidity histories and anthropometric measurements were performed monthly. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards methods were used to assess the association between potential predictors and the time to first episode of stunting, wasting and underweight. A total of 2387 infants (54.0% male) were enrolled and followed for a median duration of 21.2 months. The respective prevalence of prematurity (<37 weeks) and low birth weight (<2500 g) was 15.2% and 7.0%; 11.3% of infants were HIV-positive at 6 weeks. Median time to first episode of stunting, wasting and underweight was 8.7, 7.2 and 7.0 months, respectively. Low maternal education, few household possessions, low infant birth weight, child HIV infection and male sex were all independent predictors of stunting, wasting and underweight. In addition, preterm infants were more likely to become wasted and underweight, whereas those with a low Apgar score at birth were more likely to become stunted. Interventions to improve maternal education and nutritional status, reduce mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and increase birth weight may lower the risk of undernutrition among children born to HIV-infected women

Power and sample size calculations for longitudinal studies comparing rates of change with a time-varying exposure ‡

Existing study design formulas for longitudinal studies have assumed that the exposure is time-invariant. We derived sample size formulas for studies comparing rates of change by exposure when the exposure varies with time within a subject, focusing on observational studies where this variation is not controlled by the investigator. Two scenarios are considered, one assuming that the effect of exposure on the response is acute and the other assuming that it is cumulative. We show that accurate calculations can often be obtained by providing the intraclass correlation of exposure and the exposure prevalence at each time point. When comparing rates of change, studies with a time-varying exposure are, in general, less efficient than studies with a time-invariant one. We provide a public access program to perform the calculations described in the paper (http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/spiegelman/optitxs.html)