Climate Change and Conflict: the Darfur Conflict and Syrian Civil War

As the impacts of climate change grow more apparent, policy makers and scholars have become increasingly interested in the relationship between climate change and conflict, but their analyses have shown ambiguous results. In this thesis, I analyze this relationship in two cases: the Sudan Darfur Conflict (2003-present) and the Syrian Civil War (2011-present). I argue that climate change functioned as an intermediate variable in each case, influencing other factors known to have contributed to the conflict. I find that climate change would have been unlikely to cause either conflict in isolation. Rather, climate change exacerbated the conflicts by making the factors that led to them more severe

Formation of Compact Stellar Clusters by High-Redshift Galaxy Outflows III: Observability and Connection to Halo Globular Clusters

The early universe hosted a large population of low-mass virialized "minihalos," that were not massive enough to form stars on their own. While most minihalos were photoevaporated by ionizing photons from star-forming galaxies, these galaxies also drove large outflows, which in some cases would have reached the minihalos in advance of ionization fronts. In the previous papers in this series, we carried out high-resolution, three-dimensional adaptive mesh refinement simulations of outflow-minihalo interactions that included non-equilibrium chemistry, radiative cooling, and turbulent mixing. We found that, for a fiducial set of parameters, minihalos were transformed into dense, chemically homogenous stellar clusters. Here we conduct a suite of simulations that follow these interactions over a wide range of parameters including minihalo mass, minihalo formation redshift, outflow energy, outflow redshift, distance, concentration, and spin. In almost all cases, the shocked minihalos form molecules through nonequillibrium reactions and then cool rapidly to become compact, chemically-homogenous stellar clusters. Furthermore, we show that the unique properties of these clusters make them a prime target for direct study with the next generation of telescopes, and that there are many reasons to suspect that their low-redshift counterparts are the observed population of halo globular clusters.Comment: 19 pages, 17 figures. Accepted to the Astrophysical Journa

Measuring the capability to raise revenue process and output dimensions and their application to the Zambia revenue authority

The worldwide diffusion of the good governance agenda and new public management has triggered a renewed focus on state capability and, more specifically, on the capability to raise revenue in developing countries. However, the analytical tools for a comprehensive understanding of the capability to raise revenue remain underdeveloped. This article aims at filling this gap and presents a model consisting of the three process dimensions ‘information collection and processing’, ‘merit orientation’ and ‘administrative accountability’. ‘Revenue performance’ constitutes the fourth capability dimension which assesses tax administration’s output. This model is applied to the case of the Zambia Revenue Authority. The dimensions prove to be valuable not only for assessing the how much but also the how of collecting taxes. They can be a useful tool for future comparative analyses of tax administrations’ capabilities in developing countries.Die weltweite Verbreitung der Good-Governance- und New-Public-Management-Konzepte hat zu einer zunehmenden Konzentration auf staatliche Leistungsfähigkeit und, im Besonderen, auf die Leistungsfähigkeit der Steuererhebung in Entwicklungsländern geführt. Allerdings bleiben die analytischen Werkzeuge für ein umfassendes Verständnis von Leistungsfähigkeit unterentwickelt. Dieser Artikel stellt hierfür ein Modell vor, das die drei Prozess-Dimensionen „Sammeln und Verarbeiten von Informationen“, „Leistungsorientierung der Mitarbeiter“ und „Verantwortlichkeit der Verwaltung“ beinhaltet. „Einnahmeperformanz“ ist die vierte Dimension und erfasst den Output der Steuerverwaltung. Das mehrdimensionale Modell wird für die Analyse der Leistungsfähigkeit der Steuerbehörde Zambias (Zambia Revenue Authority) genutzt. Es erweist sich nicht nur für die Untersuchung des Wieviel, sondern auch des Wie des Erhebens von Steuern als wertvoll. Die vier Dimensionen können in Zukunft zur umfassenden und vergleichenden Analyse der Leistungsfähigkeit verschiedener Steuerverwaltungen in Entwicklungsländern genutzt werden

Songbirds as sentinels of mercury in terrestrial habitats of eastern North America

Mercury (Hg) is a globally distributed environmental contaminant with a variety of deleterious effects in fish, wildlife, and humans. Breeding songbirds may be useful sentinels for Hg across diverse habitats because they can be effectively sampled, have well-defined and small territories, and can integrate pollutant exposure over time and space. We analyzed blood total Hg concentrations from 8,446 individuals of 102 species of songbirds, sampled on their breeding territories across 161 sites in eastern North America [geometric mean Hg concentration = 0.25 μg/g wet weight (ww), range < 0.01–14.60 μg/g ww]. Our records span an important time period—the decade leading up to implementation of the USEPA Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, which will reduce Hg emissions from coal-fired power plants by over 90%. Mixed-effects modeling indicated that habitat, foraging guild, and age were important predictors of blood Hg concentrations across species and sites. Blood Hg concentrations in adult invertebrate-eating songbirds were consistently higher in wetland habitats (freshwater or estuarine) than upland forests. Generally, adults exhibited higher blood Hg concentrations than juveniles within each habitat type. We used model results to examine species-specific differences in blood Hg concentrations during this time period, identifying potential Hg sentinels in each region and habitat type. Our results present the most comprehensive assessment of blood Hg concentrations in eastern songbirds to date, and thereby provide a valuable framework for designing and evaluating risk assessment schemes using sentinel songbird species in the time after implementation of the new atmospheric Hg standards.Keywords: Songbird, Sentinel, Bioaccumulation, Mercury, Passeriforme

Preparing for a Bsal invasion into North America has improved multi-sector readiness

Western palearctic salamander susceptibility to the skin disease caused by the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) was recognized in 2014, eliciting concerns for a potential novel wave of amphibian declines following the B. dendrobatidis (Bd) chytridiomycosis global pandemic. Although Bsal had not been detected in North America, initial experimental trials supported the heightened susceptibility of caudate amphibians to Bsal chytridiomycosis, recognizing the critical threat this pathogen poses to the North American salamander biodiversity hotspot. Here, we take stock of 10 years of research, collaboration, engagement, and outreach by the North American Bsal Task Force. We summarize main knowledge and conservation actions to both forestall and respond to Bsal invasion into North America. We address the questions: what have we learned; what are current challenges; and are we ready for a more effective reaction to Bsal’s eventual detection? We expect that the many contributions to preemptive planning accrued over the past decade will pay dividends in amphibian conservation effectiveness and can inform future responses to other novel wildlife diseases and extreme threats

Advancements in decadal climate predictability: the role of nonoceanic drivers

We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale

Approaching the motional ground state of a 10 kg object

The motion of a mechanical object -- even a human-sized object -- should be governed by the rules of quantum mechanics. Coaxing them into a quantum state is, however, difficult: the thermal environment masks any quantum signature of the object's motion. Indeed, the thermal environment also masks effects of proposed modifications of quantum mechanics at large mass scales. We prepare the center-of-mass motion of a 10 kg mechanical oscillator in a state with an average phonon occupation of 10.8. The reduction in temperature, from room temperature to 77 nK, is commensurate with an 11 orders-of-magnitude suppression of quantum back-action by feedback -- and a 13 orders-of-magnitude increase in the mass of an object prepared close to its motional ground state. This begets the possibility of probing gravity on massive quantum systems.Comment: published version containing minor change

Identification and mitigation of narrow spectral artifacts that degrade searches for persistent gravitational waves in the first two observing runs of Advanced LIGO

Searches are under way in Advanced LIGO and Virgo data for persistent gravitational waves from continuous sources, e.g. rapidly rotating galactic neutron stars, and stochastic sources, e.g. relic gravitational waves from the Big Bang or superposition of distant astrophysical events such as mergers of black holes or neutron stars. These searches can be degraded by the presence of narrow spectral artifacts (lines) due to instrumental or environmental disturbances. We describe a variety of methods used for finding, identifying and mitigating these artifacts, illustrated with particular examples. Results are provided in the form of lists of line artifacts that can safely be treated as non-astrophysical. Such lists are used to improve the efficiencies and sensitivities of continuous and stochastic gravitational wave searches by allowing vetoes of false outliers and permitting data cleaning

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead