The Welfare Cost of Uncertain Tax Policy

Frequent shifts in tax policy can increase uncertainty about future net-of-tax wages and interest income. This paper measures the impact of uncertain tax policy on savings, labor supply, and welfare in the United States. A vector autoregression model with six variables was estimated which found the standard error of the one-year-ahead forecast for the wage tax to be 1.8 percentage points, and for the interest income tax 3.3 percentage points. Furthermore, the negative correlation between unanticipated shifts in the real interest rate and changes in the interest income tax amplifies the variability in the real after-tax return. A two-period model of consumption and labor supply is developed that measures the effect of uncertain taxes on savings, work hours, and taxpayer welfare. Using plausible empirical parameters, it is shown that removing all uncertainty about future tax policy can lead to a welfare gain of 0.4 percent of national income, or about 12 billion dollars in 1985.

Risky Income, Life Cycle Consumption, and Precautionary Savings

This paper argues that precautionary savings against uncertain income comprise a large fraction of aggregate savings. A closed-form approximation for life cycle consumption subject to uncertain interest rates and earnings is derived by taking a second-order Taylor-Series approximation of the Euler equations. Using empirical measures of income uncertainty, I find that precautionary savings comprises up to 56 percent of aggregate life cycle savings. The derived expression for n-period optimal consumption is easily implemented for econometric estimation, and accords well with the exact numerical solution. Empirical comparisons of savings patterns among occupational groups using the Consumer Expenditure Survey contradict the predictions of the life cycle model. Riskier occupations, such as the self-employed and salespersons, save less than other occupations, although this finding may in part reflect unobservable differences in risk aversion among occupations.

Outcomes Assessment and Health Care Reform

Argues for the use of outcomes assessment in measuring cost-effectiveness and quality to capture the overall impact of multi-dimensional treatment strategies and to identify healthcare systems that both adopt appropriate technologies and perform well

Assessing the Effectiveness of Saving Incentives

In this paper, we argue that there is more to be learned from recent research on the effectiveness of targeted saving incentives than is suggested by the wide variation in empirical estimates. First, we conclude that characterizations of saving appear to stimulate moderate amounts of new saving. Second, we suggest a cost-benefit approach to ask: What is the incremental gain in capital accumulation per dollar of foregone revenue? We find that for quite conservative measures of the saving impacts of IRAs or 401(k)s, the incremental gains in capital accumulation per dollar of lost revenue are large

The Resolution of the Labor Scarcity Paradox

This paper reconciles the apparently contradictory evidence about American and British technology in the first half of the nineteenth century. Past studies have focused on the writings of a number of distinguished British engineers, who toured the United States during the 1850s and commented extensively on the highly mechanized state of the manufacturing sector. Other studies, however, have marshalled evidence that the interest rate was higher, and the aggregate manufacturing capital stock was lower, in the United States relative to Britain. We resolve this paradox by noting that British engineers were most impressed by only a few industries which relied on skilled workers. Using the 1849 Census of Manufactures, we estimate separate production functions for the skilled sector and for the remaining, less skilled manufacturing sector. We find strong relative complementarity between capital and natural resources in the skilled sector, and relative substitutability between skilled labor and capital. Using these parameters in a computable general equilibrium model of the U.S. and British economies indicates greater capital intensity (or labor scarcity) in the skilled manufacturing sector, but overall capital scarcity and higher interest rates, in the U.S. relative to Britain.