The Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Premiums in the Money Market

Using the interest rates on negotiable certificates of deposit issued by individual banks, we first show that under the Bank of Japan's zero interest rate policy and quantitative monetary easing policy, not just the levels of money market rates but also the dispersion of rates across banks have fallen to near zero. We next show that the fall in the dispersion of the rates is not fully explained by a fall in the dispersion of credit ratings of the banks. We also present some evidence on the role of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy in reducing risk premiums.Monetary policy; Zero Interest Rate Policy; Quantitative Monetary Easing Policy; Negotiable Certificate of Deposit; Credit Risk Premium

"The Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Premiums in the Money Market"

This short paper shows that under the Bank of Japan's Zero Interest Rate Policy and Quantitative Monetary Easing, not just the levels of money market rates but also the dispersion of rates across banks have fallen to near zero. Using the data on individual banks' Negotiable Certificate of Deposit rates, we first show that the dispersion of the rates among banks has fallen since 1999, the year of the adoption of the Zero Interest Rate Policy and has reached almost zero by 2004. We next show that the fall in the dispersion of the rates is not explained by a corresponding fall in the dispersion of the credit ratings of the banks. Rather, credit risk premiums seem to have disappeared in the money market. We also discuss possible relationships between this result and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Premiums in the Money Market (Subsequently published in "International Journal of Central Banking", March 2006, Vol.2, No. 1, 105-136. )

This short paper shows that under the Bank of Japan's Zero Interest Rate Policy and Quantitative Monetary Easing, not just the levels of money market rates but also the dispersion of rates across banks have fallen to near zero. Using the data on individual banks' Negotiable Certificate of Deposit rates, we first show that the dispersion of the rates among banks has fallen since 1999, the year of the adoption of the Zero Interest Rate Policy and has reached almost zero by 2004. We next show that the fall in the dispersion of the rates is not explained by a corresponding fall in the dispersion of the credit ratings of the banks. Rather, credit risk premiums seem to have disappeared in the money market. We also discuss possible relationships between this result and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Financial markets forecasts revisited: are they rational, herding or bold?

We test whether professional forecasters forecast rationally or behaviorally using a unique database, QSS Database, which is the monthly panel of forecasts on Japanese stock prices and bond yields. The estimation results show that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, namely, significantly influenced by past forecasts, (ii) there exists a stock-bond dissonance: while forecasting behavior in the stock market seems to be herding, that in the bond market seems to be bold in the sense that their current forecasts tend to be negatively related to past forecasts, and (iii) the dissonance is due, at least partially, to the individual forecasters' behavior that is influenced by their own past forecasts rather than others. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market.

HER2 G776S mutation promotes oncogenic potential in colorectal cancer cells when accompanied by loss of APC function

Clinical cancer genome sequencing detects oncogenic variants that are potential targets for cancer treatment, but it also detects variants of unknown significance. These variants may interact with each other to influence tumor pathophysiology, however, such interactions have not been fully elucidated. Additionally, the effect of target therapy for those variants also unclarified. In this study, we investigated the biological functions of a HER2 mutation (G776S mutation) of unknown pathological significance, which was detected together with APC mutation by cancer genome sequencing of samples from a colorectal cancer (CRC) patient. Transfection of the HER2 G776S mutation alone slightly increased the kinase activity and phosphorylation of HER2 protein, but did not activate HER2 downstream signaling or alter the cell phenotype. On the other hand, the HER2 G776S mutation was shown to have strong oncogenic potential when loss of APC function was accompanied. We revealed that loss of APC function increased Wnt pathway activity but also increased RAS-GTP, which increased ERK phosphorylation triggered by HER2 G776S transfection. In addition, afatinib, a pan-HER tyrosine kinase inhibitor, suppressed tumor growth in xenografts derived from HER2 G776S-transfected CRC cells. These findings suggest that this HER2 mutation in CRC may be a potential therapeutic target

Trends in Japanese households' critical-metals material footprints

This study adopts the concept of material footprint (MF), an indicator for consumption-based material extraction via international trade, and identifies the relationship between the MFs of critical metals for low-carbon technologies – neodymium, cobalt, and platinum – and Japanese household consumption through a multiregional input–output approach using the global link input–output model. We focus solely on the impact of changes in consumption patterns caused by demographic change on the structures of the MFs from 2005 to 2035. As a result, the total MFs of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum in 2035 are estimated to be 11%, 6.6% and 4.7% lower than in 2005, respectively. In terms of commodity sectors, the MFs of the three metals induced by “passenger motor cars” are estimated to decrease most between 2005 and 2035. Finally, we carried out an assessment of the extent to which the products dealt with under current Japanese recycling laws cover the MFs calculated for 2035. This indicates that continued enforcement of the recycling laws can play an important role in alerting consumers to the MFs of critical metals, particularly neodymium. For improving the accuracy of the above estimates, further studies need to incorporate other future trends like technologies and trade

Financial Markets Forecasts Revisited: Are they Rational, Herding or Bold? *

We test whether professional forecasters forecast rationally or behaviorally using a unique database, QSS Database, which is the monthly panel of forecasts on Japanese stock prices and bond yields. The estimation results show that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, namely, significantly influenced by past forecasts, (ii) there exists a stock-bond dissonance: while forecasting behavior in the stock market seems to be herding, that in the bond market seems to be bold in the sense that their current forecasts tend to be negatively related to past forecasts, and (iii) the dissonance is due, at least partially, to the individual forecasters’ behavior that is influenced by their own past forecasts rather than others. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market