Price Forecasting Model for Perishable Commodities: A Case of Tomatoes in Punjab, Pakistan.

This study focused on developing forecasting model for perishable commodities and tomato is taken as a case to study. The model is developed on in-depth analysis of market dynamics and structure. An estimable theoretically founded model is the major output of this study which is based on true structure of the market. Complete model is comprised of inverted demand equation, Plantation and yield equations and the role of price expectations. The study reveals the fact that the farmers’ production decisions are affected by the expected profitability which is based on the expected output prices. However, due to the involvement of certain intermediaries the farmers couldn’t get the proper prices of its output whereas the domestic production meets 31.5% to its total demand only and the deficit is imported from other provinces of the country and from India. Low per acre yield and inefficient management practices, non-availability of hybrid seed, weather conditions and less profit margins and declining area of production causes the production to fall short of its potential maximum. Moreover, the increased reliance on imports and the increased demand due to increase in population causes the domestic prices to becomes more volatile. The majority of the small farmers sell their product through commission agents and wholesaler that cause imperfections in the market. Tomatoes value chain have certain problems like there exists a disparity between the small and large farmers in cost of production, yield and profitability. The model may forecast the prices on monthly or weekly basis depending upon the data availability

Policy Reforms & Analysis of Wheat Procurement System in Punjab, Pakistan.

The current policy of minimum price prevailing in the country should be abandoned as although this policy encourages the farmers to produce greater amounts of wheat but it is unfavorable for the government. Instead of minimum price policy, input costs need to be reduced to compete in the international markets as higher domestic prices leave a country internationally uncompetitive and increase the costs to the economy. The objective of this study was to find suitable price policy reforms. Extensive analysis revealed that higher cost of production is the main reason for higher domestic prices. Therefore, the study proposes that controlling and reducing input costs will benefit the farmers as well as the economy. Subsidies on inputs, especially fertilizers, should be given by the government as this will reduce the cost of production significantly. Moreover, reduced input cost for wheat will be the appropriate policy intervention which will lead to achieve international competitiveness. Thus, the policy recommendation on the basis of the analysis carried out in the previous sections is that subsidy should be given on inputs of wheat, especially fertilizers, to reduce the cost of production, as reduction in the production cost will proportionately reduce the support price

Policy Reforms & Analysis of Wheat Procurement System in Punjab, Pakistan.

The current policy of minimum price prevailing in the country should be abandoned as although this policy encourages the farmers to produce greater amounts of wheat but it is unfavorable for the government. Instead of minimum price policy, input costs need to be reduced to compete in the international markets as higher domestic prices leave a country internationally uncompetitive and increase the costs to the economy. The objective of this study was to find suitable price policy reforms. Extensive analysis revealed that higher cost of production is the main reason for higher domestic prices. Therefore, the study proposes that controlling and reducing input costs will benefit the farmers as well as the economy. Subsidies on inputs, especially fertilizers, should be given by the government as this will reduce the cost of production significantly. Moreover, reduced input cost for wheat will be the appropriate policy intervention which will lead to achieve international competitiveness. Thus, the policy recommendation on the basis of the analysis carried out in the previous sections is that subsidy should be given on inputs of wheat, especially fertilizers, to reduce the cost of production, as reduction in the production cost will proportionately reduce the support price

On the estimation of population variance using auxiliary attribute in absence and presence of non-response

In this article we proposed a new class of estimators for estimating thefinite population variance using available auxiliary attribute in absence and presence of non-response problem. Properties such as bias and mean square error of the proposed class are derived up to the first order of approximation. The proposed class is more efficient than the Singh et al. (1988), Shabbir and Gupta (2007), Singh and Solanki (2013a), usual sample variance and regression estimators

Wave Spectra in Dusty Plasmas of Nuclear Fusion Devices

Wave’s spectra are investigated through an equilibrium molecular dynamic (EMD) simulation of three-dimensional (3D) strongly-coupled complex-dusty plasmas (SCCDPs). In this chapter, we have analyzed the correlation functions over a wide range of plasma parameters of Γ (≡1, 100) and of κ (≡4.5, 5.5) along with a higher wave’s numbers of k (≡1, 4). In EMD simulations, we have examined the propagation modes of wave in the longitudinal CL(k, t) and transverse CT(k, t) current direction at higher screening (κ). We have also analyzed the wave’s spectra in different regimes of plasma states of SCCDPs. A new simulation shows that the longitudinal (CL) and transverse (CT) waves in SCCDPs are damped for low values of Γ. However, these damping affects decrease comparatively with an increasing Γ. Outcomes show that amplitude and frequency modes of the CL and CT depend on κ, Γ, k and probably on a number of particles (N). The results obtained from EMD are in reasonable agreement with earlier known theoretical and experimental data. It has been shown that the present EMD method is the best tool for computing CL and CT in the SCCDPs over a suitable range of plasma parameters

Potential Economic and Household Income Gains from Trade Liberalization by Using MyGTAP Model

The current study attempted to calculate the potential gains/losses to the household income in Pakistan. The study has employed MyGTAP model which was initially developed by Minor & Walmsley (2012) and is extension of standard GTAP model. The standard GTAP model was linked with a representative household model by using the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to capture the effects of trade liberalization on economic growth and income distribution. The study used eight different simulations to calculate the impact of trade agreements with EU, SAARC, China and India and found a significant rise in economic growth. Regardless of some limitations, the model developed in this study produced significant results that may help to explain the current debate on trade liberalization. The results of the study conclude that it is manufacturing sector that may help to improve the income of all types of household and economic growth

Potential Economic and Household Income Gains from Trade Liberalization by Using MyGTAP Model

The current study attempted to calculate the potential gains/losses to the household income in Pakistan. The study has employed MyGTAP model which was initially developed by Minor & Walmsley (2012) and is extension of standard GTAP model. The standard GTAP model was linked with a representative household model by using the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to capture the effects of trade liberalization on economic growth and income distribution. The study used eight different simulations to calculate the impact of trade agreements with EU, SAARC, China and India and found a significant rise in economic growth. Regardless of some limitations, the model developed in this study produced significant results that may help to explain the current debate on trade liberalization. The results of the study conclude that it is manufacturing sector that may help to improve the income of all types of household and economic growth

Technical Efficiency Analysis of Wheat Farms in the Punjab, Pakistan: DEA Approach

The wheat productivity in the Punjab is less than the potential maximum due to technical farm and management issues. The farm level panel survey data was used for the said purpose comprising 17 districts of the province of the Punjab from the period 2005-06 to 2007-08. The technical efficiency of wheat farms was analyzed using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. Subsequently, the same was calculated by analyzing the socioeconomic factors responsible for (in) efficiency using Tobit Regression Model. The DEA didn’t accommodate statistical noise such as random shocks which were beyond the control of farmers. However, the technical efficiency of wheat farms was estimated using the DEA approach. The mean technical efficiency estimated through variable return to scale (VRS) was 60.13 percent and constant return to scale (CRS) was 56.61 percent. The results of analyses were supported by the literature. The technical efficiency could be improved by educating the young farmers, building road infrastructure and providing access to essential inputs to farmers. The study undertaken supports the argument that technically wheat farmers are less efficient in the Punjab, Pakistan

Uveitis in spondyloarthropathies

Background: Uveitis is associated with several systemic disorders. It may be the initial presentation or manifestation of a systemic disease. It is the most common ocular complication and is sometimes the earliest manifestation of spondyloarthropathies. This study aimed to review the current literature on spondyloarthropathies and associated uveitis. Methods: A narrative review was performed using various combinations of the keywords spondyloarthropathies, seronegative spondylarthritis-related uveitis, and human leukocyte antigen-associated uveitis using PubMed/MEDLINE and Google Scholar from January 1, 2000, to September 30, 2022. We describe the disease mechanisms, genetics, and classification of spondyloarthropathies, the clinical patterns of their related ocular diseases, and the current modalities for the management of their ocular or systemic manifestations. Results: Seronegative spondyloarthropathies are a group of rheumatic disorders including ankylosing spondylitis, reactive arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease-related spondyloarthropathy, juvenile-onset spondyloarthritis, and undifferentiated spondyloarthritis. These are characterized by enthesitis in the absence of serum rheumatoid factor and have a strong association with human leukocyte antigen B27. The clinical courses and features of spondyloarthropathies are remarkably diverse. Ocular inflammation is common in spondyloarthropathies, often precedes the onset or diagnosis of systemic disease, and responds well to topical therapy. Timely diagnosis of systemic diseases may improve quality of life and help avoid ocular and skeletal complications. Recurrence of ocular inflammation is frequent; on occasion, it may be associated with etanercept administration. Conclusions: Eye care professionals should be able to recognize spondyloarthropathies, manage ocular disease, and collaborate with related specialties for modification of systemic treatment if associated with ocular complications. Timely referral and early management could attenuate or prevent ocular or systemic morbidities associated with spondyloarthropathies

Technical Efficiency Analysis of Wheat Farms in the Punjab, Pakistan: DEA Approach

The wheat productivity in the Punjab is less than the potential maximum due to technical farm and management issues. The farm level panel survey data was used for the said purpose comprising 17 districts of the province of the Punjab from the period 2005-06 to 2007-08. The technical efficiency of wheat farms was analyzed using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. Subsequently, the same was calculated by analyzing the socioeconomic factors responsible for (in) efficiency using Tobit Regression Model. The DEA didn’t accommodate statistical noise such as random shocks which were beyond the control of farmers. However, the technical efficiency of wheat farms was estimated using the DEA approach. The mean technical efficiency estimated through variable return to scale (VRS) was 60.13 percent and constant return to scale (CRS) was 56.61 percent. The results of analyses were supported by the literature. The technical efficiency could be improved by educating the young farmers, building road infrastructure and providing access to essential inputs to farmers. The study undertaken supports the argument that technically wheat farmers are less efficient in the Punjab, Pakistan