Could Regional Economic Cooperation Generate Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects without Altering Trade Policies of Members? Preliminary Results from a Gravity Application to BSEC

Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC); Trade Creation/Diversion; Gravity Models

Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Results from a 2x2x2x2 Overlapping Generations Model with Unequal Population Growth Rates

This paper considers a two-country world where the population in one country grows faster than the other, and investigates the implications of the addition of non-stationary population dynamics to a simple 2- commodity, 2-factor model of international trade within an overlapping- generations framework. The two countries in the world considered are assumed to be identical in every respect except, for their population growth rates initially. The effects of differential speed of population growth on relative factor endowments and patterns of international trade are explored by comparing simulation results obtained from the overlapping-generations general equilibrium model under autarky and trade scenarios. Unequal population growth rates are shown to give rise to differentials in wage rates and rentals for capital under autarky conditions. This, in turn, causes costs of production and relative prices to differ, creating the grounds for trade in the sense of Heckscher-Ohlin (HO). Yet, the results from simulation exercises indicate that static welfare results from the standard 2x2x2 HO model can not be generalized to hold in a dynamic setting with overlapping generations of individuals.Unequal population growth rates, Heckscher-Ohlin model, international trade, overlapping-generations

Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Results from a 2x2x2x2 Overlapping Generations Model with Unequal Population Growth Rates

Unequal population growth rates; Heckscher-Ohlin model; international trade; overlapping-generations

To Give In or Not To Give In To Bribery? Setting the Optimal Fines for Violations of Rules when the Enforcers are Likely to Ask for Bribes

In this paper, we develop a model of law enforcement with the possibility of corruption between enforcers and potential offenders. We study how the violation rate changes with the level of the fine imposed on violations. We find, in contrast to the conventional wisdom, that the fine level that minimizes violations can be intermediate rather than large. Finally, we study conditions under which different fine levels would be optimal.Corruption, Law Enforcement

Remittances, Business Cycles and Poverty: The Recent Turkish Experience

We investigate whether remittances sent to Turkey by Turkish workers living in Germany are countercyclical or procyclical with Turkish and German national outputs and discuss the possible reasons underlying the resulting patterns and their implications. We also take up a previously unexplored issue and discuss poverty alleviation potential of remittances at a macroeconomic level by examining the statistical properties of any co-movements between remittances cycles and cycles in consumption spending on food and durable goods in Turkey. Our results reveal that the real remittance flows from Germany to Turkey move procyclically with the real output in Turkey, and are primarily driven by (largely independent of) the developments in the Turkish economy (German economy). We also find that remittances cycles remain procyclical to the consumption cycles throughout our sample period. This direct co-movement between the two cycles becomes synchronous, however, only after a phase shift occurring around 1992, pointing to the increasing role of the level of economic activity in Turkey as the leading determinant of remittance receipts from Germany and the declining strength of consumption smoothing motive over time. Our results all together point out a low potential for remittances sent from Germany to reduce poverty in Turkey, at least as far as the past fifteen years are concerned.Remittances, International migration, Business cycles and poverty

Business Cycles and Remittances: A Comparison of the Cases of Turkish Workers in Germany and Mexican Workers in the US

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Directions of Trade Flows and Labor Movements between High- And Low-Population Growth Countries: An Overlapping Generations General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper considers a two-country world where the population in one country grows faster than the other, and investigates the implications of the addition of non-stationary population dynamics to a simple 2- commodity, 2-factor model of international trade within an overlapping- generations framework. The two countries in the world considered are assumed to be identical in every respect except, for their population growth rates initially. The effects of differential speed of population growth on relative factor endowments and patterns of international trade are explored by comparing simulation results obtained from the overlapping-generations general equilibrium model under autarky and trade scenarios. Unequal population growth rates are shown to give rise to differentials in wage rates and rentals for capital under autarky conditions. This, in turn, causes costs of production and relative prices to differ, creating the grounds for trade in the sense of Heckscher-Ohlin (HO). Yet, the results from simulation exercises indicate that static welfare results from the standard 2x2x2 HO model can not be generalized to hold in a dynamic setting with overlapping generations of individuals.Unequal population growth rates, labor migration, international trade, overlapping-generations