Hidden attractors in fundamental problems and engineering models

Recently a concept of self-excited and hidden attractors was suggested: an attractor is called a self-excited attractor if its basin of attraction overlaps with neighborhood of an equilibrium, otherwise it is called a hidden attractor. For example, hidden attractors are attractors in systems with no equilibria or with only one stable equilibrium (a special case of multistability and coexistence of attractors). While coexisting self-excited attractors can be found using the standard computational procedure, there is no standard way of predicting the existence or coexistence of hidden attractors in a system. In this plenary survey lecture the concept of self-excited and hidden attractors is discussed, and various corresponding examples of self-excited and hidden attractors are considered

Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability

The pace of Arctic warming is about double that at lower latitudes – a robust phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA)1. Many diverse climate processes and feedbacks cause AA2-7, including positive feedbacks associated with diminished sea ice6,7. However, the precise contribution of sea-ice loss to AA remains uncertain7,8. Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime AA appears dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results suggest that for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase, relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies. Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of Arctic and sub-Arctic climate. Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline9,10 is greater (reduced) during periods of negative (positive) PDO phase. We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future.J.A.S. was funded by a UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grants NE/J019585/1 and NE/M006123/1. J.A.F. was supported by an NSF/ARCSS grant (1304097) and NASA grant (NNX14AH896). The model simulations were performed on the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. We thank the NOAA ESRL and Met Office Hadley Centre for provision of observational and reanalysis data sets. We also thank D. Ackerley for helping to diagnose the cause of model crashes, C. Deser for commenting on the manuscript prior to submission, and two anonymous reviewers for constructive criticism

Matrix Model Conjecture for Exact BS Periods and Nekrasov Functions

We give a concise summary of the impressive recent development unifying a number of different fundamental subjects. The quiver Nekrasov functions (generalized hypergeometric series) form a full basis for all conformal blocks of the Virasoro algebra and are sufficient to provide the same for some (special) conformal blocks of W-algebras. They can be described in terms of Seiberg-Witten theory, with the SW differential given by the 1-point resolvent in the DV phase of the quiver (discrete or conformal) matrix model (\beta-ensemble), dS = ydz + O(\epsilon^2) = \sum_p \epsilon^{2p} \rho_\beta^{(p|1)}(z), where \epsilon and \beta are related to the LNS parameters \epsilon_1 and \epsilon_2. This provides explicit formulas for conformal blocks in terms of analytically continued contour integrals and resolves the old puzzle of the free-field description of generic conformal blocks through the Dotsenko-Fateev integrals. Most important, this completes the GKMMM description of SW theory in terms of integrability theory with the help of exact BS integrals, and provides an extended manifestation of the basic principle which states that the effective actions are the tau-functions of integrable hierarchies.Comment: 14 page

First observations of separated atmospheric nu_mu and bar{nu-mu} events in the MINOS detector

The complete 5.4 kton MINOS far detector has been taking data since the beginning of August 2003 at a depth of 2070 meters water-equivalent in the Soudan mine, Minnesota. This paper presents the first MINOS observations of nuµ and [overline nu ]µ charged-current atmospheric neutrino interactions based on an exposure of 418 days. The ratio of upward- to downward-going events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation in the absence of neutrino oscillations, giving Rup/downdata/Rup/downMC=0.62-0.14+0.19(stat.)±0.02(sys.). An extended maximum likelihood analysis of the observed L/E distributions excludes the null hypothesis of no neutrino oscillations at the 98% confidence level. Using the curvature of the observed muons in the 1.3 T MINOS magnetic field nuµ and [overline nu ]µ interactions are separated. The ratio of [overline nu ]µ to nuµ events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation assuming neutrinos and antineutrinos oscillate in the same manner, giving R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]data/R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]MC=0.96-0.27+0.38(stat.)±0.15(sys.), where the errors are the statistical and systematic uncertainties. Although the statistics are limited, this is the first direct observation of atmospheric neutrino interactions separately for nuµ and [overline nu ]µ

A comparison of bioclimatic conditions on Franz Josef Land (the Arctic) between the turn of the nineteenth to twentieth century and present day

The paper presents the variability of meteorological conditions: air temperature, wind speed and relative air humidity; and biometeorological indices: wind chill temperature, predicted clothing insulation and accepted level of physical activity on Franz Josef Land (in Teplitz Bay and Calm Bay) in the years 1899–1931. It employs meteorological measurements taken during four scientific expeditions to the study area. The analysis mainly covered the period October–April, for which the most complete data set is available. For that period of the year, which includes the part of the year with the Franz Josef Land’s coldest air temperatures, the range and nature of changes in meteorological and biometeorological conditions between historical periods and the modern period (1981–2010) were studied. The data analysis revealed that during the three oldest expeditions (which took place in the years 1899–1914), the biometeorological conditions in the study area were more harsh to humans than in the modern period (1981–2010) or similarly harsh. In contrast, during the 1930/1931 expedition, which represents the Early Twentieth CenturyWarming (ETCW), conditions were clearly more favourable (including predicted clothing insulation being 0.3 clo lower and 4.0 °C higher wind chill temperature than conditions observed nowadays)

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this recordThe decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.J.A.S. and R.B. were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P006760/1). C.D. acknowledges the National Science Foundation (NSF), which sponsors the National Center for Atmospheric Research. D.M.S. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and the APPLICATE project, which is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme. X.Z. was supported by the NSF (ARC#1023592). P.J.K. and K.E.M. were supported by the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network, which is funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. T.O. was funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada (GCXE17S038). L.S. was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Program Office

Multiphysics and Thermodynamic Formulations for Equilibrium and Non-equilibrium Interactions: Non-linear Finite Elements Applied to Multi-coupled Active Materials

[EN] Combining several theories this paper presents a general multiphysics framework applied to the study of coupled and active materials, considering mechanical, electric, magnetic and thermal fields. The framework is based on thermodynamic equilibrium and non-equilibrium interactions, both linked by a two-temperature model. The multi-coupled governing equations are obtained from energy, momentum and entropy balances; the total energy is the sum of thermal, mechanical and electromagnetic parts. The momentum balance considers mechanical plus electromagnetic balances; for the latter the Abraham rep- resentation using the Maxwell stress tensor is formulated. This tensor is manipulated to automatically fulfill the angular momentum balance. The entropy balance is for- mulated using the classical Gibbs equation for equilibrium interactions and non-equilibrium thermodynamics. For the non-linear finite element formulations, this equation requires the transformation of thermoelectric coupling and conductivities into tensorial form. The two-way thermoe- lastic Biot term introduces damping: thermomechanical, pyromagnetic and pyroelectric converse electromagnetic dynamic interactions. Ponderomotrix and electromagnetic forces are also considered. The governing equations are converted into a variational formulation with the resulting four-field, multi-coupled formalism implemented and val- idated with two custom-made finite elements in the research code FEAP. Standard first-order isoparametric eight-node elements with seven degrees of freedom (dof) per node (three displacements, voltage and magnetic scalar potentials plus two temperatures) are used. Non-linearities and dynamics are solved with Newton-Raphson and New- mark-b algorithms, respectively. 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Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts