Labor Market Effects of Public Policy

In this dissertation, I analyze the effects of five specific labor market public policies in Germany

The politicians’ wage gap: insights from German members of parliament

Using a unique dataset of German members of parliament (MPs) this paper analyzes the politicians’ wage gap (PWG). After controlling for observable characteristics as well as accounting for election probabilities and campaigning costs, we find a positive income premium for MPs which is statistically and economically significant. Our results are consistent with the citizen candidate model: The PWG amounts to 35–65% when comparing MPs to citizens in an executive position. However, it shrinks to zero when restricting the control group to top-level executives. This suggests that German politicians do not receive excessive pay when compared to senior executives.politicians’ wage gap; citizen-candidate model; office remuneration; outside earnings

Documentation IZAΨMOD: The IZA Policy SImulation MODel

This paper describes IZAΨMOD, the policy microsimulation model of the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). The model uses household microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study and firm data from the German linked employer-employee dataset LIAB. IZAΨMOD consists of three components: First, a static module simulates the effects of a tax reform on the budget of the individual households. Secondly, behavioral labor supply responses are estimated. The third component distinguishes our model from most other microsimulation tools. A demand module takes into account possible restrictions of labor demand and identifies the partial equilibrium of the labor market after the supply reactions.IZAΨMOD, microsimulation, tax and benefit systems, labor demand

On event studies and distributed-lags in two-way fixed effects models: identification, equivalence, and generalization

We discuss important properties and pitfalls of panel-data event study designs. We derive three main results. First, binning of effect window endpoints is a practical necessity and key for identification of dynamic treatment effects. Second, event study designs with binned endpoints and distributed-lag models are numerically identical leading to the same parameter estimates after correct reparametrization. Third, classic dummy variable event study designs can be generalized to models that account for multiple events of different sign and intensity of the treatment, which are particularly interesting for research in labor economics and public finance. We show the practical relevance of our methodological points in a replication study

Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn: A Model-based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09

Macro-level changes can have substantial effects on the distribution of resources at the household level. While it is possible to speculate about which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking. This paper suggests a straightforward approach to gauge the distributional and fiscal implications of large output changes at an early stage. We illustrate the method with an evaluation of the impact of the 2008-2009 crisis in Germany. We take as a starting point a very detailed administrative matched employer-employee dataset to estimate labor demand and predict the effects of output shocks at a disaggregated level. The predicted employment effects are then transposed to household-level microdata, in order to analyze the incidence of rising unemployment and reduced working hours on poverty and inequality. We focus on two alternative scenarios of the labor demand adjustment process, one based on reductions in hours (intensive margin) and close to the German experience, and the other assuming extensive margin adjustments that take place through layoffs (close to the US situation). Our results suggest that the distributional and fiscal consequences are less severe when labor demand reacts along the intensive margin.Labor demand, Tax-benefit system, Crisis, Income Distribution

Distributional Consequences of Labor-demand Shocks: The 2008-09 Recession in Germany

The distributional consequences of the recent economic crisis are still broadly unknown. While it is possible to speculate which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking due to a lack of real-time microdata. This paper studies the distributional and fiscal implications of output changes in Germany 2008-09, using data available prior to the economic downturn. We first estimate labor demand on 12 years of detailed, administrative matched employer-employee data. The distributional analysis is then conducted by transposing predicted employment effects of actual output shocks to household-level microdata. A scenario in which labor demand adjustments occur at the intensive margin (hour changes), close to the German experience, shows less severe effects on income distribution compared to a situation where adjustments take place through massive layoffs. Adjustments at the intensive margin are also preferable from a fiscal point of view. In this context we discuss the cushioning effect of the tax-benefit system and the conditions under which German-style work-sharing policies can be successful in other countries.labor demand, output shock, tax-benefit system, crisis, income distribution

Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn: A Model-Based Approach with Applications to Germany 2008-09

Macro-level changes can have substantial effects on the distribution of resources at the household level. While it is possible to speculate about which groups are likely to be hardesthit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking. This paper suggests a straightforward approach to gauge the distributional and fiscal implications of large output changes at an early stage. We illustrate the method with an evaluation of the impact of the 2008-2009 crisis in Germany. We take as a starting point a very detailed administrative matched employer-employee dataset to estimate labor demand and predict the effects of output shocks at a disaggregated level. The predicted employment effects are then transposed to household-level microdata, in order to analyze the incidence of rising unemployment and reduced working hours on poverty and inequality. We focus on two alternative scenarios of the labor demand adjustment process, one based on reductions in hours (intensive margin) and close to the German experience, and the other assuming extensive margin adjustments that take place through layoffs (close to the US situation). Our results suggest that the distributional and fiscal consequences are less severe when labor demand reacts along the intensive margin.Labor demand, tax-benefit system, crisis, income distribution

Structural labor supply models and wage exogeneity

There is still considerable dispute about the magnitude of labor supply elasticities. While differences in micro and macro estimates are recently attributed to frictions and adjustment costs, we show that relatively low labor supply elasticities derived from microeconometric models can also be explained by modeling assumptions with respect to wages. Specifically, we estimate 3,456 structural labor supply models each representing a plausible combination of frequently made choices. While most model assumptions do not systematically affect labor supply elasticities, our analysis shows that the results are very sensitive to the treatment of wages. In particular, the often-made but highly restrictive independence assumption between preferences and wages is key. To overcome this restriction, we propose a flexible estimation strategy that nests commonly used models. We show that loosening the exogeneity assumption leads to labor supply elasticities that are much higher

Tax-Benefit Systems in Europe and the US: Between Equity and Efficiency

Whether observed differences in redistributive policies across countries are the result of differences in social preferences or efficiency constraints is an important question that paves the debate about the optimality of welfare regimes. To shed new light on this question, we estimate labor supply elasticities on microdata and adopt an inverted optimal tax approach to characterize the redistributive preferences embodied in the welfare systems of 17 EU countries and the US. Implicit social welfare functions are broadly compatible with the fi…ction of an optimizing Paretian social planner. Some exceptions due to generous demogrant transfers are consistent with the ignorance of behavioral responses by some European governments and are partly corrected by recent policy developments. Heterogeneity in leisure-consumption preferences somewhat affect the international comparison in degrees of revealed inequality aversion, but differences in social preferences are signifi…cant only between broad groups of countries.Social preferences, redistribution, optimal income taxation, labor supply