The Hydrologic Cycle of the La Plata Basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset

General circulation models (GCMs) forced under different greenhouse gases emission and socioeconomic scenarios are currently the most extended tool throughout the scientific community that is used to infer the future climate on Earth. However, these models still have problems in capturing several aspects of regional climate variability in many parts of the globe. In this paper, the hydrological cycle of the La Plata Basin is simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) distributed hydrology model and forced with atmospheric data from different GCMs to determine to what extent errors in temperature and precipitation fields impact the hydrology of the basin. The skill assessment is performed in terms of simulated runoff at different closing points. Simulated hydrographs show that all of the GCMs present deficiencies in simulating the regional climatology of southern South America, and this leads to a very poor representation of the hydrological cycle of the main rivers across the basin. Two unbiasing schemes are then proposed as a means of correcting the GCM outputs before forcing the hydrology model, and comparisons between biased and unbiased simulations are also performed. Results indicate that both schemes, though methodologically different, reduce the water cycle simulation bias. Finally, VIC is forced with bias-corrected data from the GCMs for future decades (2030 and 2070) under different socioeconomic scenarios [e.g., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios A1B, A2, and B1] to determine the potential changes in streamflow due to climate change for the rest of the present century.Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentin

Likely intensification of water deficit conditions over the Comahue region under different climate change scenarios

Las principales actividades socioeconómicas de la región del Comahue en el norte de la Patagonia argentina dependen directamente de la disponibilidad hídrica de los ríos Limay, Neuquén y Negro. En este trabajo, se adaptó el modelo hidrológico VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) sobre las cuencas de dichos ríos con el objetivo de estudiar el posible impacto que el cambio climático tendrá en la hidrología de la región durante las próximas décadas. La etapa de calibración del modelo mostró que la base de datos observacional disponible es insuficiente para llevar a cabo una adecuada calibración del modelo a nivel diario. Frente a esto, se aplicaron diversas correcciones a las temperaturas máximas y mínimas y precipitación por separado a nivel mensual, obteniéndose al disminuir las temperaturas en los Andes una calibración (1999-2009) y una validación (2011-2016) a nivel anual satisfactorias. Los cambios proyectados en precipitación y en temperaturas máximas y mínimas para lo que resta del siglo XXI y bajo los escenarios con forzante radiativo moderado y alto sugieren una disminución en la precipitación en los Andes neuquinos y un aumento en las temperaturas, lo cual daría lugar a una reducción en el caudal medio anual para los ríos de la región que tendería a acentuarse conforme aumente la concentración de gases de efecto invernadero.The main socio-economic activities of the Comahue region in the northern Patagonia in Argentina depend directly on the water availability of the Limay, Neuquén and Negro rivers. In this work, the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model was applied to the basins of these rivers in order to study the possible impact climate change will have on the hydrology of the region over the next few decades. It was found that the available observational database is insufficient to carry out an adequate calibration of the model on a daily basis: various corrections to the maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were applied separately at a monthly level, obtaining a satisfactory calibration (1999-2009) and validation (2011-2016) at an annual level when reducing the temperatures in the Andes. The projected changes in precipitation and in maximum and minimum temperatures for the remainder of the 21st century under the scenarios with moderate and high radiative forcing suggest a decrease in precipitation in the Andes of the Neuquén province and an increase in temperatures. These conditions would result in a reduction in the mean annual flow for the rivers of the region that would be enhanced by an increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases.Fil: Raggio, Gabriela Adriana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentin

Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano

Changes in the summer rainfall and 200-hPa zonal winds (U200) in the South American Altiplano are studied from 1902 to 2018 using three different reanalysis datasets and simulations from 14 climate models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). No significant trend in rainfall was identified from GPCC reanalysis data over that period. On the other hand, regional U200 trends estimated from 20C and ERA20C reanalyses and from CMIP5 Historical simulations are significant and positive over the 1902-2005 period. However, the trends seem to be dependent on the reanalysis dataset and period considered. While no significant U200 trend is detected in simulations forced only by external natural sources, the mean trend is positive and significant in simulations forced only by the increment of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, a signal associated with the anthropogenic forcing of climate change has been detected in U200 trends in the Altiplano, but it is weak as compared with the internal climate variability. Singular value decomposition analyses based on both reanalyzed and simulated data were performed to describe the co-variability between rainfall in the Altiplano, regional U200 and global sea surface temperature (SST). The analysis confirms that negative rainfall anomalies in the Altiplano, associated with positive U200 anomalies, are related with positive SST anomalies mainly in the tropical Pacific-Indian Oceans. Simulations can reproduce observed relationships and confirm that natural variability explains the observed year-to-year variability. Simulations also confirm that anthropogenic forcing is a necessary condition to explain the positive trends detected in the co-variability between tropical SST and regional U200 anomalies. However, the large influence exerted by the South American Monsoon over the region can also affect sign and magnitude of the changes in the Altiplano. No significant relationship was found from CMIP5 simulations between poleward displacements of the global Hadley cell and regional U200 changes. Instead, South American Hadley cell displacements are significantly correlated with regional U200 changes. The latter might be an additional evidence of the combined influence of both tropical surface ocean and South America Monsoon on the circulation changes in the Altiplano in the global warming context.Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentin

Revisitando la irrupción de aire frío extrema de junio de 1967 en el centro de argentina, cincuenta años después

Durante el mes de junio de 1967 aire frío de origen polar avanzó desde el continenteantártico hacia el centro de Argentina, donde dejó temperaturas mínimas extremas, nevadasy cuantiosos daños a los cultivos. Cincuenta años después, este trabajo revisita dichasituación sinóptica haciendo uso de datos de reanálisis y modelado numérico con el fin decaracterizar los procesos físicos involucrados. En términos estadísticos, esta irrupción fríafue la más intensa de los últimos 50 años en una amplia región del centro argentino nosolamente en superficie sino también en niveles bajos y medios de la troposfera. El ingresodel aire frío se asoció al avance de un intenso frente frío detrás del cual una masa de aire deorigen polar se trasladó desde latitudes subpolares hacia el centro y norte de la Argentina.Si bien dicha masa de aire sufrió una profunda transformación durante su desplazamientopor zonas oceánicas, tal como se muestra mediante las simulaciones numéricas, laadvección térmica en primer término y el enfriamiento radiativo más tarde actuaron demodo de contribuir a las temperaturas mínimas extremas.During the month of June 1967 cold polar air moved from the Antarctic continent into central Argentina, where it brought extremely low minimum temperatures, snow and extensive damage to crops. Fifty years later, this paper revisits such synoptic situation making use of reanalysis data as well as numerical modelling in order to characterize the physical mechanisms at play. In a statistical context, this cold air outbreak was the most intense in the last 50 years in an extensive area covering central Argentina, not only at the surface but also at low and middle levels of the troposphere. The cold air outbreak was associated with the displacement of a cold front, behind which a polar air mass moved from subpolar latitudes onto central and northern Argentina. Although the air mass suffered a noticeable modification while traversing oceanic areas, as seen by the numerical simulations, temperature advection first and radiative cooling afterwards contributed to the extreme minimum temperatures.Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Ruiz, Juan Jose. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin

La Plata Basin Hydroclimate Response to Solar Radiation Modification With Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

This study analyses the La Plata Basin (LPB) hydroclimate response to Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) in terms of changes in mean and extreme temperature, rainfall, and river flows simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). The GLENS data used consists of three members simulations of a single model under the high anthropogenic emission scenario RCP8.5 with and without sulfur injection in the tropical stratosphere. The response of such an intervention is compared to a historical period (1980–2010) and to projections under the RCP8.5 scenario for two time slices: 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. The analysis of changes in extreme temperature and precipitation focuses on a subset of climate indices from the Expert Team of Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). To determine the possible effects of SRM in the LPB water cycle, we use the distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model in combination with daily extreme temperature and precipitation outputs from GLENS. Systematic errors in both fields were corrected by the application of a statistical bias correction method. Results show robust impacts on the water cycle of the LPB due to SRM implementation, particularly associated with increased precipitation over the northern part of the region and a general reduced warming compared to the RCP8.5 scenario. These variations would lead to regional-dependent responses in the river flows, mostly related to reductions in the severity of the extremely low flow conditions. Additionally, under the SRM scenario a reduction in extreme precipitation and a cooling effect on extreme temperatures could be expected over the LPB.Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Gulizia, Carla. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentin

Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region

The South Pacific Ocean is a key driver of climate variability within the Southern Hemisphere at different time scales. Previous studies have characterized the main mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in that region as a dipolar pattern of SST anomalies that cover subtropical and extratropical latitudes (the South Pacific Ocean Dipole, or SPOD), which is related to precipitation and temperature anomalies over several regions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Using that relationship and the reported low predictive skill of precipitation anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere, this work explores the predictability and prediction skill of the SPOD in near-term climate hindcasts using a set of state-of-the-art forecast systems. Results show that predictability greatly benefits from initializing the hindcasts beyond the prescribed radiative forcing, and is modulated by known modes of climate variability, namely El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Furthermore, the models are capable of simulating the spatial pattern of the observed SPOD even without initialization, which suggests that the key dynamical processes are properly represented. However, the hindcast of the actual phase of the mode is only achieved when the forecast systems are initialized, pointing at SPOD variability to not be radiatively forced but probably internally generated. The comparison with the performance of an empirical prediction based on persistence suggests that initialization may provide skillful information for SST anomalies, outperforming damping processes, up to 2–3 years into the future.Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: García Serrano, Javier. Universidad de Barcelona; EspañaFil: Doblasreyes, Francisco. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; EspañaFil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin

Relative humidity predicts day-to-day variations in COVID-19 cases in the city of Buenos Aires

Possible links between the transmission of COVID-19 and meteorology have been investigated by comparing positive cases across geographical regions or seasons. Little is known, however, about the degree to which environmental conditions modulate the daily dynamics of COVID-19 spread at a given location. One reason for this is that individual waves of the disease typically rise and decay too sharply, making it hard to isolate the contribution of meteorological cycles. To overcome this shortage, we here present a case study of the first wave of the outbreak in the city of Buenos Aires, which had a slow evolution of the caseload extending along most of 2020. We found that humidity plays a prominent role in modulating the variation of COVID-19 positive cases through a negative-slope linear relationship, with an optimal lag of 9 days between the meteorological observation and the positive case report. This relationship is specific to winter months, when relative humidity predicts up to half of the variance in positive case count. Our results provide a tool to anticipate possible local surges in COVID-19 cases after events of low humidity. More generally, they add to accumulating evidence pointing to dry air as a facilitator of COVID-19 transmission.Fil: Pineda Rojas, Andrea Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Cordo, Sandra Myriam. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Jimenez, Jose L.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados UnidosFil: Marr, Linsey C.. Virginia Tech University; Estados UnidosFil: Kropff, Emilio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; Argentin

High PM10 concentrations in the city of Buenos Aires and their relationship with meteorological conditions

In this work, the first long-term (eight years) record of hourly concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter with diameter less than 10 μm (PM10) from three sites in the city of Buenos Aires is analysed. Considering the short-term guidelines suggested by the WHO, the daily mean PM10 concentrations present a relatively large number of exceedances at the three sites. Different statistical techniques are combined to study the relationship between these relatively high PM10 concentrations and relevant surface meteorological variables. For all pollutants and sites, wind speed shows the largest differences between the lowest and highest concentration quartiles. To further explore its role on daily mean PM10 concentration, a k-means algorithm is applied, grouping days with similar surface 1h-wind sequences. Five wind sequence clusters are found, presenting distinctive air quality data features. Two clusters (1 and 2) show that PM10 exceedances occurring with winds entering the city from the river represent between 10 and 21% of total events at the three sites. The frequency of exceedance under these conditions decreases with the distance to the coast. For cluster 1, the hourly PM10 concentration profile and its associated daily wind sequence suggest an important contribution to exceedance events from the city's southernmost power plant. Two clusters (3 and 4), exhibiting continental winds, account for 49–59% of the exceedances and co-occur with relatively drier air conditions. The correlation between CO and PM10 for days belonging to cluster 3 supports the hypothesis of a potential remote or distributed source contribution with SW winds. For cluster 4, differences among sites in the number of events under NNW winds suggest an important contribution from the city's widest avenue to the PM10 levels at the most coastal site. A large contribution coming from urban sources is also indicated for these winds. Finally, cluster 5, exhibiting low wind speed sequences, accounts for 23–33% of the exceedances at the three sites. The average PM10 concentration increases with persistence of this cluster, which could be a driver for exceedances. These results contribute to show the importance of simple methods such as clustering analysis to obtain insights into air quality features such as exceedances and their potential drivers. They also suggest that further efforts in monitoring, modelling and emission estimates may help to better understand local, urban and regional source contributions to these events in the city of Buenos Aires.Fil: Pineda Rojas, Andrea Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Borge, Rafael. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid; EspañaFil: Mazzeo, Nicolás A.. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Avellaneda; ArgentinaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Matarazzo, Bruno Nicolas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Cordero, Jose M.. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid; EspañaFil: Kropff, Emilio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; Argentin

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe

Fil: Tompkins, Adrian M.. The Abdus Salam; ItaliaFil: Ortiz de Zarate, Maria Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Vera, Carolina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Saulo, Andrea Celeste. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Merryfield, William J.. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; CanadáFil: Sigmond, Michael. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; CanadáFil: Lee, Woo Sung. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; CanadáFil: Baehr, Johanna. Universitat Hamburg; AlemaniaFil: Braun, Alain. Météo-France; FranciaFil: Amy Butler. National Ocean And Atmospheric Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Déqué, Michel. Météo-France; FranciaFil: Doblas Reyes, Francisco J.. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; España. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; EspañaFil: Gordon, Margaret. Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Scaife, Adam A.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Yukiko Imada. Japan Meteorological Agency. Meteorological Research Institute. Climate Research Department; JapónFil: Masayoshi Ishii. Japan Meteorological Agency. Meteorological Research Institute. Climate Research Department; JapónFil: Tomoaki Ose. Japan Meteorological Agency. Meteorological Research Institute. Climate Research Department; JapónFil: Kirtman, Ben. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Kumar, Arun. National Ocean And Atmospheric Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Müller, Wolfgang A.. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie; AlemaniaFil: Pirani, Anna. Université Paris-Saclay; FranciaFil: Stockdale, Tim. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather; Reino UnidoFil: Rixen, Michel. World Meteorological Organization. World Climate Research Programme; SuizaFil: Yasuda, Tamaki. Japan Meteorological Agency. Climate Prediction Division; Japó

Dynamic and thermodynamic drivers of rainfall trends at the City of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Southeastern South America (SESA) experienced some of the largest positive trends in total and extreme precipitation of the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades. The City of Buenos Aires, the second largest mega-city of SESA, has been particularly hard-hit by these trends due to its flat topography and poor natural drainage. Recent studies suggest that these precipitation extremes may exacerbate even further under global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such events have not been documented for this region so far. This study quantifies the relative contributions of dynamics (atmospheric fronts) and thermodynamics (vertical stability) on the observed variations and trends of daily, seasonal and annual precipitation over the City of Buenos Aires between 1981 and 2020 by splitting the precipitation events into convective and stratiform. Results show that the relative contributions from dynamics and thermodynamics depend on the season under consideration: the positive trends in summer precipitation have been favoured by a net increase in vertical instability with a negligible contribution from dynamics, while the increased frequency of fronts in autumn and winter, when no changes in vertical instability have been observed, has contributed to the higher frequency of cold-season convective events.Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Piscitelli, Franco. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin