1971: Economic Outlook and Uncertainties

macroeconomics, economic outlook, 1971

Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction

macroeconomics, consumer spending

On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points

macroeconomics, cyclical turning points

The Measurement and Determination of Loanable-Funds Saving

macroeconomics, saving, capital formation, interest

Forecasting U.S. Trade in Services

This paper provides a set of forecasts of United States international trade in services, both at the aggregate level and for four subcategories. These sectors are: travel, which is mostly tourist expenditures; passenger fares, which is mostly passenger air transportation; transportation, other than passenger transportation; and other private services, including education, financial services, insurance, telecommunications, and business, professional and technical services. A forecasting model is constructed and estimated, based on conventional economic forces of supply and demand, dependent on cost variables and income variables as well as relative prices. For forecasting purposes, these variables are taken from the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy, a macroeconomic forecasting model with forecasts provided regularly by the University of Michigan Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics. The equations of the services trade model are reported and discussed, and the performance of the estimated equations is evaluated. The quarterly forecast paths are provided for both aggregate and sectoral services trade, including exports and imports, through the end of 2001. Results indicate that imports will continue to rise over the forecast period, while exports, after remaining nearly stationary for several quarters in some sectors in 1999, will resume their rise thereafter. This forecasting work is to be continued, and it is suggested, in addition, that future research would be useful to explore the determinants of the production and sales of foreign services affiliates of U.S. parent companies.Services, International Trade

The Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy

https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154097/1/mqem1983.pd

Money-demand and the efficacy of fiscal policy

An M2 money-demand function including the market value of government debt is estimated. The resulting equation both tracks the recent movements in money-demand and has implications for the efficacy of fiscal policy as a tool of stabilization policy.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/22715/1/0000270.pd

The allocation of household income to food consumption

Low-income households - those toward which various income supplement programs are aimed - not only spend a large share of their incomes on food, but exhibit a higher income elasticity of demand for food than does the rest of the population. Further, a greater proportion of the marginal income generated via welfare payments and food subsidy programs (e.g., food stamps) is devoted to food consumption than is true of wage income. These are among the major conclusions emerging from an extensive Engel Curve analysis applied to the data generated by a five-year (1968-1972) panel study of 5000 U.S. households.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/21776/1/0000170.pd