Functional deconvolution in a periodic setting: Uniform case

We extend deconvolution in a periodic setting to deal with functional data. The resulting functional deconvolution model can be viewed as a generalization of a multitude of inverse problems in mathematical physics where one needs to recover initial or boundary conditions on the basis of observations from a noisy solution of a partial differential equation. In the case when it is observed at a finite number of distinct points, the proposed functional deconvolution model can also be viewed as a multichannel deconvolution model. We derive minimax lower bounds for the $L^2$-risk in the proposed functional deconvolution model when $f(\cdot)$ is assumed to belong to a Besov ball and the blurring function is assumed to possess some smoothness properties, including both regular-smooth and super-smooth convolutions. Furthermore, we propose an adaptive wavelet estimator of $f(\cdot)$ that is asymptotically optimal (in the minimax sense), or near-optimal within a logarithmic factor, in a wide range of Besov balls. In addition, we consider a discretization of the proposed functional deconvolution model and investigate when the availability of continuous data gives advantages over observations at the asymptotically large number of points. As an illustration, we discuss particular examples for both continuous and discrete settings.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS552 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Similar Shape Functional Time Series Predictor

We introduce a novel functional time series methodology for short-term load forecasting. The prediction is performed by means of a weighted average of past daily load segments, the shape of which is similar to the expected shape of the load segment to be predicted. The past load segments are identified from the available history of the observed load segments by means of their closeness to a so-called reference load segment, the later being selected in a manner that captures the expected qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the load segment to be predicted. Weak consistency of the suggested functional similar shape predictor is established. As an illustration, we apply the suggested functional time series forecasting methodology to historical daily load data in Cyprus and compare its performance to that of a recently proposed alternative functional time series methodology for short-term load forecasting.Comment: 22 pages, 6 Figures, 1 Tabl

On convergence rates equivalency and sampling strategies in functional deconvolution models

Using the asymptotical minimax framework, we examine convergence rates equivalency between a continuous functional deconvolution model and its real-life discrete counterpart over a wide range of Besov balls and for the $L^2$-risk. For this purpose, all possible models are divided into three groups. For the models in the first group, which we call uniform, the convergence rates in the discrete and the continuous models coincide no matter what the sampling scheme is chosen, and hence the replacement of the discrete model by its continuous counterpart is legitimate. For the models in the second group, to which we refer as regular, one can point out the best sampling strategy in the discrete model, but not every sampling scheme leads to the same convergence rates; there are at least two sampling schemes which deliver different convergence rates in the discrete model (i.e., at least one of the discrete models leads to convergence rates that are different from the convergence rates in the continuous model). The third group consists of models for which, in general, it is impossible to devise the best sampling strategy; we call these models irregular. We formulate the conditions when each of these situations takes place. In the regular case, we not only point out the number and the selection of sampling points which deliver the fastest convergence rates in the discrete model but also investigate when, in the case of an arbitrary sampling scheme, the convergence rates in the continuous model coincide or do not coincide with the convergence rates in the discrete model. We also study what happens if one chooses a uniform, or a more general pseudo-uniform, sampling scheme which can be viewed as an intuitive replacement of the continuous model.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOS767 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Wavelet Estimators in Nonparametric Regression: A Comparative Simulation Study

Wavelet analysis has been found to be a powerful tool for the nonparametric estimation of spatially-variable objects. We discuss in detail wavelet methods in nonparametric regression, where the data are modelled as observations of a signal contaminated with additive Gaussian noise, and provide an extensive review of the vast literature of wavelet shrinkage and wavelet thresholding estimators developed to denoise such data. These estimators arise from a wide range of classical and empirical Bayes methods treating either individual or blocks of wavelet coefficients. We compare various estimators in an extensive simulation study on a variety of sample sizes, test functions, signal-to-noise ratios and wavelet filters. Because there is no single criterion that can adequately summarise the behaviour of an estimator, we use various criteria to measure performance in finite sample situations. Insight into the performance of these estimators is obtained from graphical outputs and numerical tables. In order to provide some hints of how these estimators should be used to analyse real data sets, a detailed practical step-by-step illustration of a wavelet denoising analysis on electrical consumption is provided. Matlab codes are provided so that all figures and tables in this paper can be reproduced

A Functional Wavelet-Kernel Approach for Continuous-time Prediction

We consider the prediction problem of a continuous-time stochastic process on an entire time-interval in terms of its recent past. The approach we adopt is based on functional kernel nonparametric regression estimation techniques where observations are segments of the observed process considered as curves. These curves are assumed to lie within a space of possibly inhomogeneous functions, and the discretized times series dataset consists of a relatively small, compared to the number of segments, number of measurements made at regular times. We thus consider only the case where an asymptotically non-increasing number of measurements is available for each portion of the times series. We estimate conditional expectations using appropriate wavelet decompositions of the segmented sample paths. A notion of similarity, based on wavelet decompositions, is used in order to calibrate the prediction. Asymptotic properties when the number of segments grows to infinity are investigated under mild conditions, and a nonparametric resampling procedure is used to generate, in a flexible way, valid asymptotic pointwise confidence intervals for the predicted trajectories. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed functional wavelet-kernel methodology in finite sample situations by means of three real-life datasets that were collected from different arenas