Viabilidade econômica da irrigação da cultura do café na região de Viçosa - MG

The objective of this paper is analyze the economic viability of implanting different technological alternatives of irrigation in the culture of coffee in the municipal district of Viçosa-MG. Technical and financial parameters of coffee cultivation were analyzed in five different technological alternatives: (A) - no-irrigated production with low productivity, (B) - no-irrigated production with high productivity, (C) - irrigated production by leaking, (D) - irrigated production by leaking fertilizing, (E) - irrigated production by mesh. For each one of there alternatives, Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, the Rate Interns of Return Modified and the Payback Period, being made the risk simulations were performed using the Latin Hypercube method. Results showed that the alternatives of production white irrigated were economically superior to the alternatives without no-irrigated, even in traditional producers areas, as the municipal district of Viçosa-MG. In addition to elevating the economical return and reducing the of the Payback Period capital invested, irrigated coffee reduces the risk of the activity.Coffee, Return, Risk, Risk and Uncertainty,

Portfolio selection models: comparative analysis and applications to the Brazilian stock market

This paper presents a comparison of three portfolio selection models, Mean-Variance (MV), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Minimax, as applied to the Brazilian Stock Market (BOVESPA). For this comparison, we used BOVESPA data from three different 12 month time periods: 1999 to 2000, 2001, and 2002 to 2003. Each model generated three optimal portfolios for each period, with performance determined by monthly returns over the period. In general, the accumulated returns from the Minimax modeled portfolios were superior to the BOVESPA’s principal index, the IBOVESPA. The MV model was the least efficient for portfolio selection.Portfolio selection, Stock market, Brazil, Financial Economics,

Análise de market-share e fontes de variação das exportações brasileiras de soja

The objective of this work is to determine factors that explain the alteration of the participation of the Brazilian soybean agro-industry and industry in the international trade. Particularly, it intends to analyze the Brazilian competitiveness in the exports of each segment of the soybean agro-industry. For this, the Constant-Market-Share (CMS) model was used, through which, the discrepancies were computed in the potential and effectual variation of the Brazilian exports of soybeans, soybean meal and oil, disaggregating them in these components: market size, market distribution and competitiveness. The market size was shown positive for the three analyzed segments, demonstrating that the expansion of the world demand of soybean and its by-products it was fundamental factor to the growth of the Brazilian exports. The effect market distribution was negative, indicating that there are inefficiencies in the commercialization channels of the Brazilian of soybean agro-industry. The competitiveness, for its time, was only positive for the soy exports in grain. However, it stands out that the positive impact of the competitiveness, in the soy segment in grain compensated more in monetary values than the negative impacts in the soybean meal and oil segments. In that way, are necessary government politics that improve the infrastructure and, consequently, reduce the costs for improvement of the competitiveness in the soybean meal and oil segments.Constant-Market-Share, Competitiveness, Exports, Soybean, Brazil, International Relations/Trade,

Diferenciação por origem e substituição nas exportações de soja em grão do Brasil, dos EUA e da Argentina

The objective of this work was to estimate and to analyze the elasticity of substitution between Brazil, the USA and Argentina in the soybeans exports in the selected importers markets. This fact is important, considering that, it increases the integration of the world economies, placing in prominence of the adaptability to the world demand, as a fundamental factor for the exports expansion. Like this, given the economical relevance of the Brazilian exports of soybeans it was looked for, specifically, to verify the substitution possibility between the soybeans exports of Brazil, the USA and Argentina. After accomplishment of Dickey-Fuller expanded tests (ADF) for unit root, and Trace test and Max-eingevalue test for co-integration, the Error Correction Model (ECM) was adopted in the estimate of the elasticity of substitution. That model was shown well adjusted to the datas, allowing to identify the presence or absence of market rigidity, even so there is not perfect substitution in the soybeans exports. This way, investment in differentiation of the product, through rastreability and identity preservation can impulse the Brazilian exports.Elasticity of substitution, Exports, Soybeans, Brazil, International Relations/Trade,

ELASTICIDADE-RENDA DAS DESPESAS COM ÁGUA E ESGOTO NO MEIO URBANO E NO MEIO RURAL DAS REGIÕES BRASILEIRAS

Este trabalho objetivou analisar as mudanças ocorridas na despesa com água e esgoto, em resposta à alteração na renda das famílias nas regiões Norte, Nordeste, Centro-Oeste, Sudeste e Sul. Para isso, estimou-se a elasticidade-renda da despesa por meio de um modelo econométrico que consiste em ajustar uma poligonal com três segmentos, com vistas em mostrar como a despesa com água e esgoto varia em decorrência de uma alteração no recebimento familiar. Os dados foram extraídos da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar de 2002/2003, realizada pelo IBGE. Os valores encontrados para elasticidade-renda situaram-se entre 0 e 1, o que indica que a água pode ser considerada um bem normal nas regiões analisadas e no Brasil, onde o valor encontrado foi de 0,4263. As estimativas mostraram ainda que, quase sempre, a elasticidade-renda das despesas com água e esgoto no meio rural é maior do que no meio urbano.----------------------The objective of this paper was to analyze the expense changes with water and sanitation taxes in response to change in households’ income in the main Brazilian regions (North, Northeast, Central-West, South East, and South). The data were collected from the Household Budgetary Research (POF) of IBGE for the period 2002/2003. Elasticity-income of expenditure was estimated through an econometric model which consisted of an adjusted polygonal with three segments. The values encountered for the elasticity-income of expenditure are between 0 and 1, indicating that water can be considered a normal good in the regions analyzed, and, for the country as a whole, the value encountered was 0.4263. The estimations show also that, in general, the elasticity-income of expenditure of water and sanitation taxes is higher in rural areas than in urban areas.água, elasticidade-renda, regiões brasileiras, water, elasticity-income, Brazilian regions, Consumer/Household Economics,

Rentabilidade e risco na estocagem do café pelos produtores na região de Viçosa - MG

The objective of this article was to evaluate the yield and risk in the production and storage of the Arabian coffee. Cash flows are elaborated for coffee production in two productive systems, one with low productivity and other with high productivity. Twelve different scenarios are simulated, each one representing the returns and risks in the production and storage for every month of the year. The financial indicators Payback Period (PP), Net Present Value (VPL) and Internal Rate of Return (TIR) and the indicator Average Cost (CMe), suggest that high productivity is important to increase profitability and to decrease the activity risk, being the best periods to sale coffee, on the part of the producers, the months that precede the harvest, January, February and March.Financial Economics, Coffee, Return, Risk,

VIABILIDADE FINANCEIRA E RISCOS ASSOCIADOS À INTEGRAÇÃO LAVOURA-PECUÃRIA NO ESTADO DO PARANÃ

The Brazilian agricultural sector is characterized by a great diversity of production systems subject to a wide number of risk factors. These risks cannot be completely eliminated, but they can be minimized by the adoption of some strategies, such as diversification of agricultural and livestock activities. In this light, a comparative analysis, under operational and market risk conditions, of the financial viability of integrated crop-livestock systems, in relation to systems characterized by grain exploitation or specialized in livestock (beef cattle), was done. The methodology included data on farming in Paraná state, especially the in area of Guarapuava. Long term financial indicators were generated: net present value, internal return rate and cost-benefit analysis. The results show that, in both deterministic and uncertain conditions, the integrated system generates the best financial results.farming system, financial indicators, probabilities, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Industrial Organization,

IMPACTOS DOS SUBSÍDIOS AGRÍCOLAS DOS EUA NA EXPANSÃO DA PRODUÇÃO E EXPORTAÇÕES DO AGRONEGÓCIO BRASILEIRO

No Acordo Agrícola da Rodada Uruguai e posteriores rodadas de negociações multilaterais foram propostas metas de redução de subsídios à agricultura. Mesmo assim, o que tem ocorrido é uma elevação dos volumes de recursos concedidos aos produtores agrícolas dos EUA. Salienta-se que os subsídios à produção agrícola nos EUA geram distorções no comércio mundial desses produtos, na medida em que reduzem suas importações e aumentam os excedentes exportáveis. Assim, o objetivo da presente pesquisa é avaliar os impactos dos subsídios à produção agrícola dos EUA – concedidos através dos Loan Deficiency Payments (LDP) – sobre o crescimento do agronegócio brasileiro. Para isso foi utilizado um Modelo Aplicado de Equilíbrio Geral (MAEG) para a economia dos EUA e do Brasil. A partir desse modelo, utilizando a hipótese de Market Share constante, simularam-se quatro cenários de redução de subsídios norte-americanos: redução no valor médio anual e no montante total de subsídio concedido no período de 2002 a 2007, em conjunturas otimistas e pessimistas. Dos resultados obtidos pode-se inferir que as mudanças na produção dos EUA seriam, em geral, negativas e do Brasil positivas. Isso ocorreria, pois a queda na produção do agronegócio dos EUA diminuiria os excedentes exportáveis desse país, gerando maiores oportunidades de expansão do agronegócio em países concorrentes, como o Brasil. Portanto, haveria queda nas exportações agroindustriais dos EUA e queda nas importações, possivelmente devido à desaceleração do crescimento. O Brasil, por sua vez, apresentaria elevação das exportações e importações agroindustriais em todos os cenários, mas seria gerado saldo positivo para a balança comercial desse setor. Conclui-se que a redução da produção agroindustrial nos EUA devido à redução dos subsídios agrícolas geraria oportunidades para o crescimento do agronegócio brasileiro e promoveria maior competitividade das exportações.-------------------------------------------Into the agricultural agreement of the Uruguai round and the forthcoming rounds of multilateral negociations were proposed marks for decreasing the subsidies to agriculture. Even so, what has been occurring it is an increasing of the volume of granted resources to the agricultural producers in the USA. It is pointed out that the subsidies to the agricultural production into the USA create distortions into the worldwide trade. Thus, the objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of subsidies to the agricultural production of the USA granted through the Loan Deficiency Payments (LDP), upon the Brazilian agribusiness growing. For this, it was used an Computable General Equilibrium Model to the economy of Brazil and the USA. Since this model, using a hypothesis of constant Market Share, four sceneries for the reduction of the American subsidies were simulated: reduction of the medium yearly and of the total amount of subsidies granted during the period from 2002 to 2007, into optimist and pessimist situations. We can infer from the results gathered that the changes on the USA production would be negative in general, but positive for Brazil. This would occur, because the downing of production in the USA agricultural trade would diminish the exportable excess of this country, creating more opportunities for the agricultural trade expansion for the competitors countries like Brazil. Therefore, there would be a decline on the agro-industry exportations and importations of the USA. Brazil, on the other hand, would present an increasing of the agro-industry exportations and importations in all the sceneries, but it would be created a positive credit balance to the balance of trade of this sector. It is concluded that the reduction of the agro-industry production in the USA due to the reduction of agricultural subsidies would create opportunities for the Brazilian agricultural trade and would promote more exportations competitiveness.subsídios agrícolas, EUA, crescimento, agronegócio brasileiro, Agricultural subsidies, the USA, growing, Brazilian agricultural trade, International Relations/Trade,

Teoria dos jogos e seleção de portfólio: uma proposta de adaptação ao modelo minimax e aplicação ao mercado acionário brasileiro

The objective of this paper was to compare and to analyze three portfolio selection models: Mean-Variance, Minimax and Minimax Weighted. These models were evaluated using historical data (September 1999 to August 2000, January 2001 to December 2001 and February 2002 to January 2003) obtained from the Brazilian Stock Market (Bovespa). They were selected optimal portfolios to each month based on the returns of the last twelve months. The results show that the returns obtained through the Mean-Variance model were superiors in certain circumstances and inferiors in others when compared to the Ibovespa index. The Minimax model obtained the best accumulated returns when compared with the others models and the Ibovespa index.Portfolio selection, Mean-variance, Bovespa, Game theory, Financial Economics,

ANÁLISE ESTRUTURAL DA SÉRIE DE PREÇOS DO SUÍNO NO ESTADO DO PARANÁ, 1994 A 2007

O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar a estrutura e comportamento da série de preços mensal recebido pelos produtores de suíno do Estado do Paraná no período de 06/1994 a 08/2007. Para isso, a série de preços do suíno foi decomposta em seus elementos não observáveis: tendência, sazonalidade, ciclos e movimentos irregulares, utilizando-se modelos temporais de domínio do tempo e de frequência. Os resultados indicam que a série de preços do suíno apresenta uma componente tendência ascendente irregular, um componente sazonal e cíclico (de curta duração) e uma volatilidade assimétrica e persistente ao longo do tempo. ---------------------------------------------The objective this paper is to analyze the structure and behavior of the monthly price received of the swine of the State of the Paraná in the period of 06/1994 the 08/2007. For this, the series of prices of the swine was decomposed in its elements did not observe: irregular trend, seasonal, cycles and movements, using itself secular models of the domain of the time and frequency. The results indicate that the series of prices of the swine has a component irregular ascending trend, a seasonal and cyclical component (of short duration) and an anti-symmetrical and persistent volatileness throughout the time.Preço, suíno, Paraná, Price, swine, Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,