Is There a Long Run Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off in Sweden?

We present a small open economy version of Akerlof, Dickens and Perry (2000) and, based on Swedish data, we show that there exists a negatively sloped long run Phillips curve. Regressions on quarterly data 1963-2000 and estimated inflation expectations show that this Phillips curve is relatively robust and that an unemployment rate of close to two percent is consistent with an inflation target slightly above its present level of two percent. However, estimations based on survey data suggest that a considerably higher inflation rate, of around four percent, is necessary to yield a lowest sustainable unemployment rate. These latter estimates seem better adjusted to the recent Swedish macroeconomic experiences. If Sweden enters the EMU, and if the ECB targets inflation at a lower level than the Riksbank, employment as well as output will be lower than today. Moreover, if the inflation-unemployment trade-off differs widely across the member states of the EMU, then a single inflation rate in the EMU-area implies that long run unemployment rates will also differ across the member countries.Phillips curve; Efficiency wages; Near-rationality

The Hausman-MaCurdy Controversy - Why do results differ between studies?

The two perhaps most influential empirical labor supply studies carried out in the U.S. in recent years, Hausman (1981) and MaCurdy, Green & Paarsch (1990), report sharply contradicting labor supply estimates. In this paper we seek to uncover the driving forces behind the seemingly irreconcilable results. Our findings suggest that differences with respect to the estimated income and wage effects can be attributed to the use of differing nonlabor income and wage measures, respectively, in the two studies. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the wage measure adopted by MaCurdy et al might cause a severely downward biased wage effect such that data falsely refute the basic notion of utility maximization.Labor supply; Slutsky condition; maximum likelihood estimation

Low-Inflation Targeting and Unemployment Persistence

A recent model by Akerlof, Dickens and Perry (2000) (ADP) predicts that low inflation may cause unemployment to persist at high levels. This finding should be of major interest to European countries where inflation is targeted at low levels. We specify a small open economy version of the ADP model and apply it to Swedish data. The results indicate that raising the Swedish inflation target from 2 to 4% would bring long-run unemployment down by two percentage points, to 2.0-2.5%. EMU membership, with inflation at the average of the present 0-2% band, would raise unemployment to around 6%. Membership thus implies a rejection of a national inflation target that could maximize employment. Given that long run unemployment-inflation trade-offs can be found in other countries as well, there is nothing to suggest that these trade-offs are identical across countries. A single inflation rate in the EMU may then cause unemployment to widely exceed the lowest sustainable rate in individual countries. We also extend the ADP model by showing theoretically that the unemployment minimizing inflation rate could lead to too low output. However, empirically we find, both for Sweden and the U.S., that minimum unemployment and maximum output occur at roughly the same rate of inflation.Phillips curve; Efficiency wages; Near-rationality

Labor Supply Prediction when Tax Avoidance Matters

We examine how tax avoidance in the form of trade in well-functioning asset markets affects the empirical study of labor supply. We discuss the implications for tax policy analysis, and we show that a failure to account for avoidance responses may lead to huge errors when predicting how tax reform affects labor supply tax revenue, and the welfare cost of taxation. In conclusion we argue that our model may explain a number of otherwise hard to understand dimensions of tax payer response.Labor supply; tax avoidance; asset markets; tax reform simulation

Labor Supply When Tax Avoidance Matters

We examine how tax avoidance in the form of trade in well-functioning asset markets affects the empirical study of labor supply. We discuss the implications for tax policy analysis, and we show that a failure to account for avoidance responses may lead to huge errors when predicting how tax reform affects labor supply, tax revenue, and the welfare cost of taxation. In conclusion we argue that our model may explain a number of otherwise hard to understand dimensions of tax payer response.Labour supply; Tax avoidance; Asset markets; Tax reform simulation

Identifying Interdependent Behavior in an Empirical Model of Labor Supply

In this paper we test a particular form of interdependent behavior, namely the hypothesis that individuals´ choices of hours of work are influenced by the average hours of work in a social reference group. There are problems to empirically disentangle the effects of interdependent behavior and preference variation across groups. We show that panel data or data from several points in time are needed. In the empirical analysis we combine cross-section data from 1973, 1980 and 1990. Our results support the hypothesis of interdependent behavior. The implication is that conventional tax policy predictions, in which preference interdependencies are neglected, will tend to underestimate the effect of a tax reform on hours of work. Our point estimates suggest that conventional calculations would capture only about a third of the actual change in hours of work.Labor supply; interdependent preferences; nonlinear taxes