Corporate Cash Flow and Stock Price Exposures to Foreign Exchange Rate Risk

This paper estimates the foreign exchange rate exposure of 6,917 U.S. nonfinancial firms on the basis of stock prices and corporate cash flows. The results show that several firms are significantly exposed to at least one of the foreign exchange rates Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and Euro, and significant exposures are more frequent at longer horizons. The percentage of firms for which stock price and earnings exposures are significantly different is relatively low, though it increases with time horizon. Overall, the impact of exchange rate risk on stock prices and cash flows is similar and determined by a related set of economic factors.corporate finance, risk management, exposure, foreign exchange rates, hedging

What Lies Beneath: Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure, Hedging and Cash Flows

This paper presents results from an in-depth analysis of the foreign exchange rate exposure of a large nonfinancial firm based on proprietary internal data including cash flows, derivatives and foreign currency debt, as well as external capital market data. While the operations of the multinational firm have significant exposure to foreign exchange rate risk due to foreign currency-based activities and international competition, corporate hedging mitigates this gross exposure. The analysis illustrates that the insignificance of foreign exchange rate exposures of comprehensive performance measures such as total cash flow can be explained by hedging at the firm level. Thus, the residual net exposure is economically and statistically small, even if the operating cash flows of the firm are significantly exposed to exchange rate risk. The results of the paper suggest that managers of nonfinancial firms with operations exposed to foreign exchange rate risk take savvy actions to reduce exposure to a level too low to allow its detection empirically.Foreign exchange rates, exposure, risk management, cash flow, derivatives, corporate finance

Corporate hedging and speculation with derivatives

Against the backdrop of the role of derivatives in the recent financial crisis, this paper investigates the effect of derivatives usage on the risk and exposure of nonfinancial firms around the world, and presents evidence that they use derivatives for hedging purposes. There is no evidence of corporate speculation with derivatives for firms in individual countries or for different types of derivatives, except for marginally higher net commodity price exposure of firms using commodity price derivatives. Firms use derivatives for hedging purposes independent of access to derivatives or country-level corporate governance. While there are no differences in risk between firms in countries with strong and weak shareholder rights, the reduction in risk is larger for firms in countries where creditor rights are weak or where derivatives are readily available. Consequently, policy makers could facilitate corporate hedging activities by pursuing strategies that encourage the development of local-currency derivatives markets. Given the similarity in the use and effect of derivatives across countries, internationally harmonized regulation of derivatives markets may be adequate

The Exchange Rate Exposure Puzzle

Based on basic financial models and reports in the business press, exchange rate movements are generally believed to affect the value of nonfinancial firms. In contrast, the empirical research on nonfinancial firms typically produces fewer significant exposures estimates than researchers ex-pect, independent of the sample studied and the methodology used, giving rise to a situation known as “the exposure puzzle”. This paper provides a survey of the existing research on the exposure phenomenon for nonfinancial firms. We suggest that the exposure puzzle may not be a problem of empirical methodology or sample selection as previous research has suggested, but is simply the result of the endogeneity of operative and financial hedging at the firm level. Given that empirical tests estimate exchange exposures net of corporate hedging, both, firms with low gross exposure that do not need to hedge, as well as firms with large gross exposures that employ one or several forms of hedging, may exhibit only weak exchange rate exposures net of hedging. Consequently, empirical tests yield only small percentages of firms with significant stock price exposures in almost any sample.Exposure, risk management, derivatives, corporate finance, exchange rates

In good times and in bad : defined-benefit pensions and corporate financial policy

U.S. sponsors of defined-benefit pension plans integrate their pension plans into their overall financial management. Plan contributions are smaller and funding levels lower for plan sponsors that have less cash, are less profitable and are financially distressed. Moreover, plan sponsors make more aggressive pension plan assumptions if they have lower cash holdings and profit margins. While there is no evidence that plan sponsors generally take more risk with their pension plan as-sets if they have high business or financial risk, there is some evidence of risk shifting during major economic downturns such as the global financial crisis. As a result, funding rules, pension plan assumptions and investment policies are areas to consider for pension policy to protect plan beneficiaries

Crossing the Lines: The Conditional Relation between Exchange Rate Exposure and Stock Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets

This paper examines the importance of exchange rate risk in the return generating process for a large sample of non-financial firms from 37 countries. We argue that the effect of exchange rate exposure on stock returns should be conditional and show evidence of a significant return premium to firm-level currency exposures when conditioning on the exchange rate change. The return premium is directly related to the size and sign of the subsequent exchange rate change, suggesting fluctuations in exchange rates themselves as a source of time-variation in currency risk premia. For the entire sample the return premium ranges from 1.2 - 3.3% per unit of currency exposure. The premium is larger for firms in emerging markets, while in developed markets it is statistically significant only for local currency depreciations. Overall, the results indicate that exchange rate exposure plays an important role in generating cross-sectional return variation. Moreover, we show that the impact of exchange rate risk on stock returns is predominantly a cash flow effect as opposed to a discount rate effect.Exchange rate exposure, exchange rate risk, return premia, international finance

No Place To Hide: The Global Crisis in Equity Markets in 2008/09

This paper provides a broad analysis of the effect of the current financial crisis on global equity markets and their major components. We also examine the magnitude of the crisis in terms of value destruction in comparison to other market crashes. In brief, upon looking at return performance across an array of regions, countries, and sectors, broad market averages are down approximately 40% on their end of 2006 levels. While deterioration started in most markets in early to mid 2008, the crisis period of mid September to the end of October 2008 is responsible for the lion's share of the collapse with just about all indices falling 30 - 40% in this short period. Financial sectors have taken a bigger hit than non-financials over the period, though they both suffered similarly during the peak of the crisis. Due to larger rises in 2007 the emerging markets drop more in 2008 than developed markets but in large part end up at the same level as the other markets. The global nature of the crisis is also apparent from the high correlations between markets and investment styles that further increased during the crisis. As a result, diversification provided little help to investors when needed most as markets dropped in tandem.Equity market, financial crisis, shareholder value, performance, international finance

Are Short-sellers Different?

While theoretical models strongly suggest that short-sales are mainly driven by private information, recent empirical evidence of has been rather mixed. This paper contributes to the discussion by looking at various potential motives to sell short and compares these with regular buys and sales with regards to variation in the information contents and timing of short-sales. We find that short-sellers have different private information than regular buyers and sellers, which seems to have a longer life-time, being related to previous buying pressure. The information advantage of short-sellers seems originating from skilled analysis of publicly available data rather than corporate insider information. Short-sales provide an important stabilizing role by providing liquidity in periods of uninformed buying pressure. Overall, we find that short-sales are driven by multiple trade motives, which sets short-sellers apart from regular buyers and sellers.Short-selling; Information asymmetry; Microstructure

Informed Trading, Information Asymmetry and Pricing of Information Risk: Empirical Evidence from the NYSE

We analyze commonality in informed trading across stocks, and how informed trading varies with the structural and trading characteristics of a firm. We thereby isolate the residual level of informed trading that is unrelated to commonality, trading characteristics, and structural charac-teristics and analyze this measure with respect to its characteristics and pricing relevance. We find evidence of commonality in informed trading, and a systematic dependence of the level of informed trading on firm characteristics, such as, tick size, the existence of options, and the size of the ownership stake of outside parties. Most importantly, we find that the residual level of in-formed trading is the component of informed trading most strongly related to required returns. This indicates that an important part of the information risk premium is related to the inability to differentiate between price fluctuations that are caused by changes in fundamental value from random price moves.Market microstructure; Common factors; Risk factors; Asymmetric information

Agnostic fundamental analysis works

To assess stock market informational efficiency with minimal data snooping, we take the view of a statistician with little knowledge of finance. The statistician uses techniques such as least squares to estimate peer-implied fair values from the market values of replicating portfolios with the same accounting statements as the company being valued. Divergence of a company's peer-implied value estimate from its market value represents mispricing, motivating a convergence trade that earns risk-adjusted returns of up to 10% per year and is economically significant for both large and small cap firms. The rate of convergence decays to zero over the subsequent 34 months