The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns

Commodity futures risk premiums vary across commodities and over time depending on the level of physical inventories, as predicted by the Theory of Storage. Using a comprehensive dataset on 31 commodity futures and physical inventories between 1969 and 2006, we show that the convenience yield is a decreasing, non-linear relationship of inventories. Price measures, such as the futures basis, prior futures returns, and spot returns reflect the state of inventories and are informative about commodity futures risk premiums. The excess returns to Spot and Futures Momentum and Backwardation strategies stem in part from the selection of commodities when inventories are low. Positions of futures markets participants are correlated with prices and inventory signals, but we reject the Keynesian "hedging pressure" hypothesis that these positions are an important determinant of risk premiums.

Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: The Inefficient Performance and Persistence of Commodity Trading Advisors

Investors face significant barriers in evaluating the performance of hedge funds and commodity trading advisors (CTAs). The only available performance data comes from voluntary reporting to private companies. Funds have incentives to strategically report to these companies, causing these data sets to be severely biased. And, because hedge funds use nonlinear, state-dependent, leveraged strategies, it has proven difficult to determine whether they add value relative to benchmarks. We focus on commodity trading advisors, a subset of hedge funds, and show that during the period 1994-2007 CTA excess returns to investors (i.e., net of fees) averaged 85 basis points per annum over US T-bills, which is insignificantly different from zero. We estimate that CTAs on average earned gross excess returns (i.e., before fees) of 5.4%, which implies that funds captured most of their performance through charging fees. Yet, even before fees we find that CTAs display no alpha relative to simple futures strategies that are in the public domain. We argue that CTAs appear to persist as an asset class despite their poor performance, because they face no market discipline based on credible information. Our evidence suggests that investors' experience of poor performance is not common knowledge.

Warehouse design and control: framework and literature review

In this paper we present a reference framework and a classification of warehouse design and control problems. Based on this framework, we review the existing literature on warehousing systems and indicate important gaps. In particular, we emphasize the need for design oriented studies, as opposed to the strong analysis oriented research on isolated subproblems that seems to be dominant in the current literature

A Lindley-type equation arising from a carousel problem

Abstract: In this paper we consider a system with two carousels operated by one picker. The items to be picked are randomly located on the carousels and the pick times follow a phasetype distribution. The picker alternates between the two carousels, picking one item at a time. Important performance characteristics are the waiting time of the picker and the throughput of the two carousels. The waiting time of the picker satisfies an equation very similar to Lindley’s equation for the waiting time in the P H/U/1 queue. Although the latter equation has no simple solution, it appears that the one for the waiting time of the picker can be solved explicitly. Furthermore, it is well known that the mean waiting time in the P H/U/1 queue depends on to the complete inter-arrival time distribution, but numerical results show that, for the carousel system, the mean waiting time and throughput are rather insensitive to the pick-time distribution

Warehouse design and planning: A mathematical programming approach

The dynamic nature of today's competitive markets compels organizations to an incessant reassessment in an effort to respond to continuous challenges. Therefore, warehouses as an important link in most supply chains, must be continually re-evaluated to ensure that they are consistent with both market's demands and management's strategies. A number of warehouse decision support models have been proposed in the literature but considerable difficulties in applying these models still remain, due to the large amount of information to be processed and to the large number of possible alternatives. In this paper we discuss a mathematical programming model aiming to support some warehouse management and inventory decisions. In particular a large mixed-integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) is presented to capture the trade-offs among the different inventory and warehouse costs in order to achieve global optimal design satisfying throughput requirements.(undefined)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Economic Activity of Firms and Asset Prices

In this review we survey the recent research on the fundamental determinants of stock returns. These studies explore how firms' systematic risk and their investment and production decisions are jointly determined in equilibrium. Models with production provide insights into several types of empirical patterns, including (a) the correlations between firms' economic characteristics and their risk premia, (b) the comovement of stock returns among firms with similar characteristics, and (c) the joint dynamics of asset returns and macroeconomic quantities. Moreover, by explicitly relating firms' stock returns and cash flows to fundamental shocks, models with production connect the analysis of financial markets with the research on the origins of macroeconomic fluctuations