Estimation récursive pour les modèles autorégressifs localement stationnaires

Nous nous intéressons dans ce travail à l'estimation des paramètres d'un processus autorégressif localement stationnaire. Dans cette approche, le paramètre d'intérêt est une fonction de [0,1] dans Rd x R+ décrivant l'évolution de la densité spectrale au cours du temps par l'intermédiaire de d coefficients de prédiction linéaire et de la variance de l'innovation. Le problème d'identification du modèle se ramène alors à un problème d'estimation fonctionnelle non-paramétrique. Nous nous intéressons à la mise en oeuvre d'estimateurs récursifs. Nous avons étudié plus particulièrement l'estimateur LMS (Least Mean Square) qui repose sur l'écriture d'un gradient stochastique. Nous avons étudié le comportement asymptotique précis de l'estimateur, montrant que pour des classes de régularité trop forte, il n'atteint pas la vitesse minimax. Dans ce cas, nous appliquons une méthode de correction du biais pour construire un nouvel estimateur récursif de vitesse minimax dans un ensemble plus large de classes de régularité

PDRs4All II: JWST's NIR and MIR imaging view of the Orion Nebula

The JWST has captured the most detailed and sharpest infrared images ever taken of the inner region of the Orion Nebula, the nearest massive star formation region, and a prototypical highly irradiated dense photo-dissociation region (PDR). We investigate the fundamental interaction of far-ultraviolet photons with molecular clouds. The transitions across the ionization front (IF), dissociation front (DF), and the molecular cloud are studied at high-angular resolution. These transitions are relevant to understanding the effects of radiative feedback from massive stars and the dominant physical and chemical processes that lead to the IR emission that JWST will detect in many Galactic and extragalactic environments. Due to the proximity of the Orion Nebula and the unprecedented angular resolution of JWST, these data reveal that the molecular cloud borders are hyper structured at small angular scales of 0.1-1" (0.0002-0.002 pc or 40-400 au at 414 pc). A diverse set of features are observed such as ridges, waves, globules and photoevaporated protoplanetary disks. At the PDR atomic to molecular transition, several bright features are detected that are associated with the highly irradiated surroundings of the dense molecular condensations and embedded young star. Toward the Orion Bar PDR, a highly sculpted interface is detected with sharp edges and density increases near the IF and DF. This was predicted by previous modeling studies, but the fronts were unresolved in most tracers. A complex, structured, and folded DF surface was traced by the H2 lines. This dataset was used to revisit the commonly adopted 2D PDR structure of the Orion Bar. JWST provides us with a complete view of the PDR, all the way from the PDR edge to the substructured dense region, and this allowed us to determine, in detail, where the emission of the atomic and molecular lines, aromatic bands, and dust originate

PDRs4All IV. An embarrassment of riches: Aromatic infrared bands in the Orion Bar

(Abridged) Mid-infrared observations of photodissociation regions (PDRs) are dominated by strong emission features called aromatic infrared bands (AIBs). The most prominent AIBs are found at 3.3, 6.2, 7.7, 8.6, and 11.2 $\mu$m. The most sensitive, highest-resolution infrared spectral imaging data ever taken of the prototypical PDR, the Orion Bar, have been captured by JWST. We provide an inventory of the AIBs found in the Orion Bar, along with mid-IR template spectra from five distinct regions in the Bar: the molecular PDR, the atomic PDR, and the HII region. We use JWST NIRSpec IFU and MIRI MRS observations of the Orion Bar from the JWST Early Release Science Program, PDRs4All (ID: 1288). We extract five template spectra to represent the morphology and environment of the Orion Bar PDR. The superb sensitivity and the spectral and spatial resolution of these JWST observations reveal many details of the AIB emission and enable an improved characterization of their detailed profile shapes and sub-components. While the spectra are dominated by the well-known AIBs at 3.3, 6.2, 7.7, 8.6, 11.2, and 12.7 $\mu$m, a wealth of weaker features and sub-components are present. We report trends in the widths and relative strengths of AIBs across the five template spectra. These trends yield valuable insight into the photochemical evolution of PAHs, such as the evolution responsible for the shift of 11.2 $\mu$m AIB emission from class B$_{11.2}$ in the molecular PDR to class A$_{11.2}$ in the PDR surface layers. This photochemical evolution is driven by the increased importance of FUV processing in the PDR surface layers, resulting in a "weeding out" of the weakest links of the PAH family in these layers. For now, these JWST observations are consistent with a model in which the underlying PAH family is composed of a few species: the so-called 'grandPAHs'.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figures, to appear in A&

PDRs4All III: JWST's NIR spectroscopic view of the Orion Bar

(Abridged) We investigate the impact of radiative feedback from massive stars on their natal cloud and focus on the transition from the HII region to the atomic PDR (crossing the ionisation front (IF)), and the subsequent transition to the molecular PDR (crossing the dissociation front (DF)). We use high-resolution near-IR integral field spectroscopic data from NIRSpec on JWST to observe the Orion Bar PDR as part of the PDRs4All JWST Early Release Science Program. The NIRSpec data reveal a forest of lines including, but not limited to, HeI, HI, and CI recombination lines, ionic lines, OI and NI fluorescence lines, Aromatic Infrared Bands (AIBs including aromatic CH, aliphatic CH, and their CD counterparts), CO2 ice, pure rotational and ro-vibrational lines from H2, and ro-vibrational lines HD, CO, and CH+, most of them detected for the first time towards a PDR. Their spatial distribution resolves the H and He ionisation structure in the Huygens region, gives insight into the geometry of the Bar, and confirms the large-scale stratification of PDRs. We observe numerous smaller scale structures whose typical size decreases with distance from Ori C and IR lines from CI, if solely arising from radiative recombination and cascade, reveal very high gas temperatures consistent with the hot irradiated surface of small-scale dense clumps deep inside the PDR. The H2 lines reveal multiple, prominent filaments which exhibit different characteristics. This leaves the impression of a "terraced" transition from the predominantly atomic surface region to the CO-rich molecular zone deeper in. This study showcases the discovery space created by JWST to further our understanding of the impact radiation from young stars has on their natal molecular cloud and proto-planetary disk, which touches on star- and planet formation as well as galaxy evolution.Comment: 52 pages, 30 figures, submitted to A&

Function-indexed empirical processes based on an infinite source Poisson transmission stream

We study the asymptotic behavior of empirical processes generated by measurable bounded functions of an infinite source Poisson transmission process when the session length have infinite variance. In spite of the boundedness of the function, the normalized fluctuations of such an empirical process converge to a non-Gaussian stable process. This phenomenon can be viewed as caused by the long-range dependence in the transmission process. Completing previous results on the empirical mean of similar types of processes, our results on non-linear bounded functions exhibit the influence of the limit transmission rate distribution at high session lengths on the asymptotic behavior of the empirical process. As an illustration, we apply the main result to estimation of the distribution function of the steady state value of the transmission process.Samorodnitsky's research was partially supported by the ARO grant W911NF-07-1-0078 at Cornell University, Department of Mathematics, Universite de Paris Ouest Nanterre during his visit in 2007, Laboratory of Actuarial Mathematics, Department of Mathematics, University of Copenhagen and by Laboratory of Informatics, Technical University of Denmark, during his sabbatical stay in 2008-200