Money and Inflation in an Inflation-Tageting Regime

This work describes the role of money in the current inflation-targeting framework in Chile, in particular given the large recent annual increase in M1A. From a conceptual standpoint, it analyzes the relationship between money growth and inflation, as well as the interpretation of movements in monetary aggregates. Empirically, the article evaluates the informational content of money as an indicator of inflationary pressures in Chile, and examines whether the recent evolution of M1A is consistent with money demand fundamentals. The evidence indicates that the recent trajectory of money does not represent a material risk to the achievement of the inflation target.

Dinero e Inflación en el Marco de Metas de Inflación

This work describes the role of money in the current inflation-targeting framework in Chile, in particular given the large recent annual increase of M1A. From a conceptual point of view, we analyze the relationship between money growth and inflation, as well as the interpretation of the movements in monetary aggregates. Empirically, we evaluate the informational content of money as an indicator of inflationary pressures in Chile, as well as whether the recent evolution of M1A is consistent with money demand fundamentals. The evidence indicates that the recent trajectory of money does not represent a relevant risk to the achievement of the inflation target.

CENTRAL BANK AUTONOMY: THE CHILEAN EXPERIENCE

A selective revision to the theoretical and empirical literature on macroeconomic performance and central bank autonomy, yields new evidence of the relationship between the latter and the passthrough coefficient from the exchange rate to inflation. An analysis follows, from diverse viewpoints, to the way central bank autonomy has worked in practice in Chile, what were the issues being debated at the beginning and how they have unfolded later. The Central Bank of Chile’s (CBC) autonomy is then compared with that of other central banks, discussing the role of central banks’ capital. The conclusion from the analysis is that the CBC’s experience with autonomy has had very positive results.

Current Account and External Financing

This article summarizes the most salient aspects of papers presented at the Central Bank of Chile’s Tenth Annual Conference “Current Account and External Financing” held in November 2006 and soon to be edited into an upcoming book. Many works were included oriented to improve understanding of recent trends and behavior of international financial markets and emerging economies participating in said markets. The papers, that cover both theoretical and empirical aspects, contribute elements to the comprehension of macroeconomic management in a small open economy, taking into account the main changes observed in recent years in matters relating with financial integration.

Stocks, Flows and Valuation Effects of Foreign Assets and Liabilities: Do they Matter?

During the last few years, large holdings of foreign assets and liabilities along with an increasing relevance of the valuation effects—capital gains or losses—have characterized global financial integration. This paper presents an empirical assessment of the implications of stocks, flows and valuation adjustments in external crises, sovereign credit ratings and the long-run dynamics of real exchange rates (RER), in both industrial and developing economies. We find that foreign assets and liabilities are rather distinctive external holdings with different implications in the occurrence of an external crisis. Valuation adjustments have an impact on crises, although quantitatively not very large. Portfolio liabilities (particularly equity) increase the probability of current account reversals, while the likelihood of sudden stops increases with foreign direct investment assets. In the case of sovereign credit ratings, we find a noteworthy effect of the stock and flows of FDI liabilities on improvin sovereign ratings. Finally, as for the RER, gross assets and liabilities appear equally important, but components of external holdings have considerably different effects. While the cumulative current account is associated with real depreciation, the valuation effect is strongly linked with real currency appreciations in developing economies.

Policy Responses to external Shocks in Australia, Brazil and Chile

Open economies, particularly emerging markets and commodity-intensive economies, deal with large external shocks. Alternative policy reactions and policy setups may dampen or amplify the consequences of these shocks, affecting the magnitude of the effects. This paper revisits the recent experience of policy frameworks and reactions in Australia, Brazil and Chile. In particular, we describe the recent experience of these countries by providing an account of the macroeconomic policy framework and the policy reactions to the major shocks of the past eight years, and draw some policy lessons.

The Monetary Policy Horizon in Chile and Other Inflation-Targeting Countries

Tolerating some volatility in the rate of inflation leads the design of inflation target characteristics—in inflation-targeting economies—to reflect flexibility in four dimensions, namely: the price index that defines the target, the width of the target range, the midpoint of the monetary policy horizon (MPH) and the time range of the MPH. This paper evaluates Chile’s MPH—recently redefined by the Central Bank of Chile—in light of the Chilean experience and in an international comparison with other inflation targeters around the world. We review analytical and practical aspects of the formulation of the inflation-targeting framework. Then we present descriptive information on inflation, its volatility and its deviation from the target for all inflation-targeting countries, in order to infer the actual degree of tolerance countries have had toward inflation rates’ deviation and volatility. Next we describe the current design of monetary policy in the four aforesaid dimensions of flexibility in inflation-targeting countries. Finally, we review inflation forecasts published by the Central Bank of Chile and evaluate the consistency between the announced MPH and the Bank’s actual policy horizon

Structural budget balance: the pilar of the new chilean fiscal policy rule

This paper develops the structural budget balance methodology, adopted for use in the Chilean public sector. The structural balance methodology adjusts fiscal accounts so they reflect changes in net worth and makes it possible to isolate changes in fiscal policy resulting from the main exogenous factors determining fiscal revenues: GDP and copper price. This facilitates the analysis and evaluation of fiscal policy in Chile, which, since 2000, has focused on achieving a structural budget surplus, thus ensuring the existence of counter-cyclical fiscal policy in a framework of robust fiscal accounts.

Concentración, Hold-up e Información de las Colocaciones Bancarias: Evidencia de Empresas Chilenas

In this paper we empirically study bank-client relationships using a sample of Chilean manufacturing firms. We examine whether concentration and the duration of bank-client relationships affect the volume of bank lending. Our results indicate that lower concentration, measured by the number of banks a firm borrows from, is associated ith a large and positive effect on borrowing. The length of borrower-lender relationships has a positive—although not always statistically significant—effect on the amount borrowed.