Catching up in total factor productivity through the business cycle : evidence from Spanish manufacturing surveys

Spain has recently experienced more than a decade of price stability and economic growth however now is showing one of the most significant slowdowns in economic activity of the EU economies. There is a general consensus that this slowdown in economic activity is particularly important in Spain due to the low level and low rates of growth experienced by total factor productivity (TFP) during more than a decade. Among the key policy elements that could enhance TFP of manufacturing firms in Spain we find those related to human capital, foreign direct investment, and process innovations. We evaluate the effect of recessions on the productivity growth of firms with different level of productivity. We present evidence on the dynamic of firm’s TFP through the business cycle allowing for a differentiated behavior for technological leaders and followers. We observe lower persistence and faster convergence in TFP during recessions and, higher persistence and non convergence in TFP during expansions. These empirical findings are consistent with the predictions obtained from the technological diffusion literature and from the fact that firm’s innovation is pro-cyclical. These conclusions are obtained from a microeconometric analysis of surveys of Spanish manufacturing firms (ESEE) from 1991 to year 2005

Catching up in total factor productivity through the business cycle : evidence from Spanish manufacturing surveys

Spain has recently experienced more than a decade of price stability and economic growth however now is showing one of the most significant slowdowns in economic activity of the EU economies. There is a general consensus that this slowdown in economic activity is particularly important in Spain due to the low level and low rates of growth experienced by total factor productivity (TFP) during more than a decade. Among the key policy elements that could enhance TFP of manufacturing firms in Spain we find those related to human capital, foreign direct investment, and process innovations. We evaluate the effect of recessions on the productivity growth of firms with different level of productivity. We present evidence on the dynamic of firm’s TFP through the business cycle allowing for a differentiated behavior for technological leaders and followers. We observe lower persistence and faster convergence in TFP during recessions and, higher persistence and non convergence in TFP during expansions. These empirical findings are consistent with the predictions obtained from the technological diffusion literature and from the fact that firm’s innovation is pro-cyclical. These conclusions are obtained from a microeconometric analysis of surveys of Spanish manufacturing firms (ESEE) from 1991 to year 2005.Productivity catching up, Technology diffusion, Pro-cyclical innovation, Technological leaders, Business cycle

Catching up in total factor productivity through the business cycle: Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

After facing more than a decade of price stability and economic growth, Spain is experiencing now one of the most significant slowdowns in economic activity across EU economies. There is a general consensus the severity of this slowdown is due to the low level and low rates of growth experienced by total factor productivity (TFP) during more than a decade. Using firm-level data over the period 1991-2005 we study the effect of recessions on the productivity growth of firms with different level of productivity (i.e., technological leaders and technological followers) and we find that firms tend to converge in recessions. In expansions, on the other hand, we find higher persistence in terms of productivity and no convergence. These findings are consistent with the predictions of technological diffusion models and the fact that firm’s innovation is procyclical. We also find that human capital and innovation are key factors that could enhance the productivity of Spanish manufacturing firms.productivity catching up; technology diffusion; pro-cyclical innovation; technological leaders; business cycle

Heterogeneous Productivity Shocks, Elasticity of Substitution and Aggregate Fluctuations

We use a Dixit-Stiglitz setting to show that aggregate productivity fluctuations can be generated through changes in the dispersion of firms' productivity. When the elasticity of substitution among goods is larger than one, an increase in the dispersion raises aggregate productivity because firms at the top of the distribution produce most of output. When the elasticity is smaller than one, an increase in the dispersion reduces aggregate productivity because firms at the bottom of the distribution use most of inputs. We use individual firm data from Spanish manufacturing sectors to test the relationship between the dispersion of firms' productivity and aggregate productivity. The estimated coefficients are consistent with the predictions of the model: we find that an increase in the coefficient of variation of firms productivity of 1% increases aggregate productivity by 0.59% in sectors with an elasticity of substitution larger than one while the same increase in the coefficient of variation reduces aggregate productivity by 0.07% in sectors with an elasticity of substitution smaller than one.Heterogeneous Productivity Shocks, Elasticity of Substitution, Volatility, Aggregate Productivity.

Do Temporary Contracts Affect TFP? Evidence from Spanish Manufacturing Firms

This paper evaluates the impact of the widespread use of fixed-term contracts in Spain on firms' TFP, via its effect on workers' effort. We propose a simple analytical framework showing that, under plausible conditions, workers' effort depends positively on their perception (for given level of effort) about firms' willingness to convert fixed-term contracts into permanent ones. We test this implication using manufacturing firm level data from 1991 to 2005 by means of nonparametric tests of stochastic dominance and parametric multivariate regression approaches. Our main findings are that high conversion rates increase firm's productivity while high shares of temporary contracts decrease it. Both effects are quantitatively relevant.temporary workers, workers' effort, firms' TFP

SME Policy and Firms’ Productivity in Latin America

Very little is known about the effectiveness of SME policies, and a careful look at the structure, mechanisms and incentives provided by these policies suggest caution in their implementation and, most importantly, the need to carefully and closely monitor their results. This paper relies on the microeconometric analysis of a homogeneous dataset of sixteen Latin American and Caribbean countries to analyze the magnitude and determinants of the productivity gap between large and SME firms and to simulate of the impact on productivity of various policy scenarios.SMEs, SME policy, productivity, Latin America

Does dual employment protection affect TFP? Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

This paper analyzes the effect of having a large gap in firing costs between permanent and temporary workers in a dual labour market on TFP development at the firm level. We propose a simple model showing that, under plausible conditions, both temporary workers’ effort and firms’ temp-to-perm conversion rates decrease when that gap increases. We test this implication by means of a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms from 1991 to 2005, using as natural experiments some labour market reforms entailing substantial changes in this gap. Our main empirical finding is that reforms leading to a lower gap enhanced conversion rates, which in turn increased firms’ TFP, and conversely for reforms that increased the gap.Firms' TFP, Workers' effort, Temporary workers, Firing costs

What determines productivity dynamics at the firm level? Evidence from Spain

The current literature on firm dynamics considers the mobility of firms within the productivity distribution to be determined by exogenous random shocks. This paper evaluates human capital and learning by doing as possible factors determining the mobility once the exogenous shocks have taken place. The main contribution of the paper is to provide evidence on the endogenous mobility of firms within the productivity distribution

Psychometrics as a Tool to Improve Screening and Access to Credit

This paper studies the use of psychometric tests, designed by the Entrepreneurial Finance Lab (EFL), as a tool to screen out high credit risk and potentially increase access to credit for small business owners in Peru. We use administrative data covering the period from June 2011 to April 2014 to compare debt accrual and repayment behavior patterns across entrepreneurs who were offered a loan based on the traditional credit-scoring method versus the EFL tool. We find that the psychometric test can lower the risk of the loan portfolio when used as a secondary screening mechanism for already banked entrepreneurs - i.e., those with a credit history. For unbanked entrepreneurs - i.e., those without a credit history - using the EFL tool can increase access to credit without increasing portfolio risk

SME policy and firms' productivity in Latin America

Very little is known about the effectiveness of SME policies, and a careful look at the structure, mechanisms and incentives provided by these policies suggest caution in their implementation and, most importantly, the need to carefully and closely monitor their results. This paper relies on the microeconometric analysis of a homogeneous dataset of sixteen Latin American and Caribbean countries to analyze the magnitude and determinants of the productivity gap between large and SME firms and to simulate of the impact on productivity of various policy scenarios