Black Workers Need More than an Economic Boom

This paper looks at the reasons the absolute and relative gains that African Americans made during the 1990s economic boom were both less than hoped for and fragile in the period of economic decline that followed. The paper also looks at the public policies that would be necessary to sustain the gains that African Americans are likely to make during the next economic expansion

Forecasting the Labor Market Prospects of Low-Skilled Americans

This paper forecasts the post-recession labor market experiences of less-skilled men and women. It uses empirical relationships and the Bush Administration's 2004 and 2005 forecasts of the national unemployment rate to predict the employment-population ratios, employment rates, and labor force participation rates of Americans with the least skills. It also describes the econometric models estimated in the paper; presents estimates of the relationship between aggregate demand and the participation, employment, and unemployment of young non-enrolled Americans and 10-year forecasts of their labor market outcomes; and discusses findings and their implications

The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Distribution and Type of Unemployment

This working paper by William M. Rodgers III employs two widely used approaches to estimate the effects of monetary policy on seven measures of unemployment. Evidence from recursive vector autoregressions and autoregressive distributed lag models that use information on the Federal Reserve's contractionary initiatives indicate that the weeks of unemployment distribution (e.g., less than five weeks) is significantly altered. The number of unemployed increases at all segments of the distribution. However, as a share of total unemployment, the increase is greatest among those with 15 weeks of unemployment or more. The number of job losers on both temporary and permanent layoff rise, with over two-thirds of the increase among permanent job losers. The number of reentrants into the labor force, new entrants, and part-time workers that become unemployed also rises. The share of the unemployed that are job losers rises, while the shares of reentrant, new entrant, and part-time workers that become unemployed falls

New Jersey Public-Private Sector Wage Differentials: 1970 to 2004

This paper, by Heldrich Center Chief Economist William M. Rodgers III, uses Decennial Census and Current Population Survey data to provide a rigorous comparison of New Jersey's public and private sector wages

The Pitfalls of Using a Child Support Schedule Based on Outdated Data

A strong rationale for updating child support guidelines arises from changes over time in the measurement of expenditures on children, as well as changes in the empirical relationship between expenditures on children and the income of parents. Such changes affect the accuracy of the numerics upon which states' child support guidelines are based. This study evaluates an alternative child support guideline that was proposed for Virginia and draws lessons for other states that similarly base their guidelines on older survey data. Regression results show that over time, the child expenditure and household income relationship has changed considerably. Furthermore, the largest increases in expenditures attributable to children have occurred for lower- and middle-income households

The Impact of 9/11 and the London Bombings on the Employment and Earnings of U.K. Muslims

Using a difference-in-differences framework, this paper estimates the impact that Britain's July 2005 bombings had on the labor market outcomes of UK residents who are either Muslim by religious affiliation or whose nativity profiles are similar to the terrorists. We find a 10 percentage point decrease in the employment of very young Muslim men relative to non-Muslim immigrants after the London bombings. The drop in employment is accompanied by consistent declines in real earnings and hours worked. A weak association between the 9-11 terrorist attacks and a drop in the employment of very young male immigrants from Muslim-majority countries is also found. The terrorist events had little impact on the employment of older men.Muslim, ethnic minority, minorities, 9/11, employment, London bombings

The weak jobs recovery: whatever happened to "the great American jobs machine"?

Authors Freeman and Rodgers find that the current recovery, which started in 2001, has been the worst in recent history in terms of job creation. They determine that the slow employment growth of the recovery is not attributable to the poor performance of a particular sector, nor is it concentrated in certain geographic areas. ; The authors conclude that the weak jobs recovery represents a major shift in the link between the labor market and the economy over the business cycle. They also find that the slow job growth has disproportionate effects on groups especially sensitive to business cycle swings, such as African-Americans, new labor-market entrants, out-of-school youth and less educated workers.Labor market ; Business cycles ; Economic conditions

Food Security and the Federal Minimum Wage

This working paper, by William M. Rodgers III, Hanley S. Chiang, and Bruce W. Klein, estimates the extent to which increases in the U.S. federal minimum wage in October 1996 and September 1997 improved the ability of households to be food secure -- that is, to purchase for their members an adequate supply of nutritional and safe foods. First, the authors show that the two increases significantly altered the hourly wage distribution of householders (principal person in a household). The shifts were greatest among household heads that are minority, single parents, and household heads with no more than a high school diploma. Even after controlling for the link between the 1990s economic expansion and food security, the October 1996 and September 1997 increases in the federal minimum wage raised food security and reduced hunger, particularly in low-income households where householders had completed no more than a high school degree or were a single parent