Economists as Worldly Philosophers

While leading figures in the early history of economics conceived of it as inseparable from philosophy and other humanities, there has been movement, especially in recent decades, towards its becoming an essentially technical field with narrowly specialized areas of inquiry. Certainly, specialization has allowed for great progress in economic science. However, recent events surrounding the financial crisis support the arguments of some that economics needs to develop forums for interdisciplinary interaction and to aspire to broader vision.Economic methodology, Specialization, Behavioral economics, Psychology, Rational expectations, Economics as a moral science, Pareto criterion, Interdisciplinary, Journal of Economic Perspectives

From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance

The efficient markets theory reached the height of its dominance in academic circles around the 1970s. Faith in this theory was eroded by a succession of discoveries of anomalies, many in the 1980s, and of evidence of excess volatility of returns. Finance literature in this decade and after suggests a more nuanced view of the value of the efficient markets theory, and, starting in the 1990s, a blossoming of research on behavioral finance. Some important developments in the 1990s and recently include feedback theories, models of the interaction of smart money with ordinary investors, and evidence on obstacles to smart money.Speculative markets, Rational expectations, Psychology, Anomalies, Excess volatility, Feedback, Smart money, Limits to arbitrage, Short sales

Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better. Three case studies of past booms are considered for comparison: the US housing boom of 1950, the US farmland boom of the 1970s, and the temporary interruption 2004-5 of the UK housing boom. The paper concludes that while it is possible that prices will continue to go up as is commonly expected, there is a high probability of steady and substantial real home price declines extending over years to come.Home prices, Residential investment, Mortgage, Subprime crisis, Business cycle, Recession, Boom, Bubble, Monetary policy

The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review

The life-cycle accounts proposal for Social Security reform has been justified by its proponents using a number of different arguments, but these arguments generally involve the assumption of a high likelihood of good returns on the accounts. A simulation is undertaken to estimate the probability distribution of returns in the accounts based on long-term historical experience. U.S. stock market, bond market and money market data 1871-2004 are used for the analysis. Assuming that future returns behave like historical data, it is found that a baseline personal account portfolio after offset will be negative 32% of the time on the retirement date. The median internal rate of return in this case is 3.4 percent, just above the amount necessary for holders of the accounts to break even. However, the U.S. stock market has been unusually successful historically by world standards. It would be better if we adjust the historical data to reduce the assumed average stock market return for the simulation. When this is done so that the return matches the median stock market return of 15 countries 1900-2000 as reported by Dimson et al. [2002], the baseline personal account is found to be negative 71% of the time on the date of retirement and the median internal rate of return is 2.6 percent.

Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better.

Designing Indexed Units of Account

An indexed unit of account is a unit of measurement defined using an index such as a consumer price index so that prices, wages or deferred payments defined in terms of these units will automatically adjust to changing economic conditions. Evidence on money illusion and sticky prices, and evidence from countries (notably Chile) that have created indexed units of account, suggests that creating such indexed units is an important policy option for governments in countries with unstable prices or incomes. Choices for governments designing indexed units of account are discussed. Governments may choose to encourage the use of the units only for large long-deferred non-wage payments, or they may choose to go to the opposite extreme of encouraging the use of the units for defining all prices, wages and payments. A general equilibrium model is given that shows the dynamics of prices when all prices are expressed in the units. Governments may choose to link units to a consumer price index or to a per capita income index, and there may be advantages to creating both kinds of units simultaneously. Downward rigidity of real wages might be reduced if wages are denominated in base-income-indexed units of account, where base income is defined so that the growth rate in money value of the unit is biased down relative to actual per capita income growth. Examples of the units for United States are displayed and discussed. Could add description of simulation, if that is added.Indexation, escalator clause, cost of living allowance (COLA), monetized indexed units of account, base income, money illusion, sticky prices, fairness, unidad de fomento, Chile

Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation

Behavioral economics has played a fundamental role historically in innovation in economic institutions, even long before behavioral economics was recognized as a discipline. Examples from history, notably that of the invention of workers’ compensation, illustrate this point. Though scholarly discussion develops over decades, actual innovation tends to occur episodically, particularly at times of economic crisis. Fortunately, some of the major professional societies, the Verein fur Sozialpolitik, the American Economic Association and their successors, have managed to keep a broad discourse going, involving a variety of research methods including some that may be described today as behavioral economics, thereby maintaining an environment friendly to institutional innovation. Further, the broad expansion of behavioral economics that is going on today can be expected to yield even more such important institutional innovations.Economic innovation, Invention, Psychological economics, Institutional economics, Social insurance, Workers’ compensation, American Economic Association, Germany, Verein fur Sozialpolitik

The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America

The world's first known inflation-indexed bonds were issued by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in 1780 during the Revolutionary War. These bonds were invented to deal with severe wartime inflation and with angry discontent among soldiers in the U.S. Army with the decline in purchasing power of their pay. Although the bonds were successful, the concept of indexed bonds was abandoned after the immediate extreme inflationary environment passed, and largely forgotten until the twentieth century. In 1780, the bonds were viewed as at best only an irregular expedient, since there was no formulated economic theory to justify indexation.

The theory of index-based futures and options markets

This paper reviews the development of index-based futures and options markets. The thesis is that, while the growth of these markets to date has been dramatic, their development could be extended much further, if some problems of measurement can be solved.

The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation

The life-cycle accounts proposal for Social Security reform has been justified by its proponents using a number of different arguments, but these arguments generally involve the assumption of a high likelihood of good returns on the accounts. A simulation is undertaken to estimate the probability distribution of returns in the accounts based on long-term historical experience. U.S. stock market, bond market and money market data 1871-2004 are used for the analysis. Assuming that future returns behave like historical data, it is found that a baseline personal account portfolio after offset will be negative 32% of the time on the retirement date. The median internal rate of return in this case is 3.4 percent, just above the amount necessary for holders of the accounts to break even. However, the U.S. stock market has been unusually successful historically by world standards. It would be better if we adjust the historical data to reduce the assumed average stock market return for the simulation. When this is done so that the return matches the median stock market return of 15 countries 1900-2000 as reported by Dimson et al. [2002], the baseline personal account is found to be negative 71% of the time on the date of retirement and the median internal rate of return is 2.6 percent.Private accounts, Lifetime portfolio selection, portfolio choice, pensions, old age insurance, social insurance, stock market, returns, historical simulation, thrift savings plan