Stumbling blocks to entrepreneurship in low-and moderate income communities (commentary)

Community development

Vector autoregression evidence on monetarism: another look at the robustness debate

This paper is a case study of the use of vector autoregression (VAR) models to test economic theories. It focuses on the work of Christopher A. Sims, who in 1980 found that relationships in economic data generated by a small VAR model were inconsistent with those implied by a simple form of monetarist theory. The paper describes the work of researchers who criticized Sims' results as not robust and Sims' response to these critics. The paper reexamines all of this work by estimating hundreds of variations of Sims' model. The paper concludes that both Sims and his critics are right: Sims' conclusion about monetarism is robust, but some of his other statistical results are not. In general, the paper concludes that VAR models can be used to test theories, but that any relationships they uncover in the data must be carefully checked for robustness.Vector autoregression ; Monetary theory

Mortgage Broker Regulations That Matter: Analyzing Earnings, Employment, and Outcomes for Consumers

As the role of mortgage brokers in mortgage origination grew from insignificant in the 1980s to dominant in recent years, questions have arisen about whether its services help or harm consumers. In response, states have increasingly regulated the business, largely by creating and tightening occupational licensing requirements for mortgage brokers. The question of whether increased occupational licensing of mortgage brokers improves consumer outcomes is theoretically ambiguous and has been little studied empirically. This study introduces a new database of mortgage broker licensing requirements and assesses the relationships between these requirements and outcomes in both the labor market for brokers and the consumer market for mortgages. We find that one typical regulation—the requirement in many states that mortgage brokers maintain a surety bond or minimum net worth—has a significant and fairly consistent statistical relationship with both labor and consumer market outcomes. In particular, we find that tighter bonding/net worth requirements are associated with slightly higher broker earnings, fewer brokers, fewer subprime mortgages, higher foreclosure rates, and a greater percentage of high-interest-rate mortgages. Although we do not provide a full causal interpretation of these results, we take seriously the possibility that restrictive bonding requirements for mortgage brokers have unintended negative consequences for many consumers. On balance, our results also seem to support the relevance of theories of occupational licensing that stress the importance of financial entry and exit barriers.

A case for post-purchase support programs as part of Minnesota's emerging markets homeownership initiative

The State of Minnesota’s Emerging Markets Homeownership Initiative (EMHI) seeks to boost homeownership rates among Minnesota’s “emerging markets,” defined as households of color, non-English speaking households, and households in which English is a second language. Many of the implementation strategies in the EMHI Business Plan address general barriers to homeownership and should increase the number of emerging market households that become first-time homeowners. EMHI doesn’t stop there, however. It also recognizes the need to sustain homeownership after initial purchase, in keeping with growing evidence that the cliché “once an owner, always an owner” is far from true, especially for minority and low-income households. In particular, the EMHI Business Plan includes a strategy for developing and implementing a post-purchase services network that will enhance their prospects for successful, sustainable homeownership. As a foundation for the implementation effort, this report explains why Minnesota is in a good position to use post-purchase support programs to pursue EMHI’s goals.

SPDAs and GICs: like money in the bank?

We argue that changes in the life insurance industry have created a nontrivial moral hazard. We document the industry's shift from sales of life insurance to sales of mainly rate-of-return oriented investments like single premium deferred annuities (SPDAs) and guaranteed investment contracts (GICs). We describe the system of explicit and implicit guarantees that state governments and the industry provide to SPDA and GIC investors. We argue that these guarantees create moral hazards that have contributed to insurance company failures and misallocation of resources. We summarize reformers' proposals to enhance both the explicit guarantees and the regulation of insurance companies and argue that maintaining the degree of regulatory tightness required for such proposals to succeed will be difficult. We suggest an alternative: eliminate guarantees of SPDAs, GICs, and similar products (and possibly promote full disclosure practices and earmarked investments like variable annuities).Insurance industry

Forecasting and modeling the U.S. economy in 1986-88

Economic conditions - United States ; Forecasting ; Econometric models