The road to recovery for the food and drink sector

The COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit have been felt keenly by the UK’s food and drink industry. The two events have caused shocks in supply and demand that have affected the industry’s segments differently. Cesar Revoredo-Giha looks at the evolution of the index of production published by the Office for National Statistics and outlines the issues that might affect the industry in the months ahead

The Interaction of Working and Speculative Commodity Stocks

This paper models the interaction of working (also called pipeline) and speculative commodity stocks. We model working inventories (i.e., raw material inventories carried by processors) based on Rameys (1989) model of inventories as factors of production, which allows us to represent storage under inter-temporal price backwardation, observed in commodity markets. We incorporate both speculative and working stocks in a simple model to analyze the interaction and to simulate the relationship between inter-temporal commodity price spreads and stocks. Our model replicates common price patters found in commodity markets.Marketing,

RED MEAT PRODUCERS’ PREFERENCES FOR STRATEGIES TO COPE WITH THE CAP REFORM IN SCOTLAND

It is recognised that following the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) farmers may go through a period of transition where they evaluate the different production alternatives available to them according to their existing situation, expectations and preferences. Drawing on a survey of Scottish beef and sheep producers undertaken in mid-2006, the purpose of this paper is to analyse the preferences of producers in relation to a number of possible economic strategies for production adjustment following CAP reform. The results show that the nature of adjustment is still uncertain, reflected in the high numbers of farmers that do not know what strategy to follow or that will maintain the same production levels despite the reform. However, a sizable percentage of farmers indicate their intentions to concentrate on the production of high quality output.Scottish agriculture, single farm payment, red meat producers., Agricultural and Food Policy, Q18.,

RETAILERS PRICE BEHAVIOUR IN THE UK FRESH FRUIT AND VEGETABLE MARKET

The purpose of this paper is to study the price behaviour of fresh produce at the retail level of two leading supermarkets, Tesco and Sainsbury, with the purpose of gaining knowledge about their interaction. We focus the study on six products from the fresh fruits and vegetable group (i.e., tomatoes, Bramley’s apples, white cabbage, cucumbers, Iceberg lettuce and Round lettuce) due to the fact on the one hand it is a less complex supply chain (e.g., perishable product, less number of intermediaries) and on the other hand, because during the last 20 years the group has significantly evolved with supermarkets becoming the major players in the chain. The empirical methodology consisted of using Granger causality tests to establish the relationship between the series (e.g., leader-follower) and then vector autoregressive (VAR) models and variance decomposition procedures to capture the interaction of supermarket prices by product. Overall results indicate that the competition behaviour amongst the two retailers changes by product and evolve over timeUK retail prices, supermarket competition, UK fresh produce market, Demand and Price Analysis,

A Metafrontier Analysis of Technical Efficiency of Selected European Agricultures

Technical efficiency refers to the situation where it is impossible for a firm to produce, with the given know-how, (1) a larger output from the same inputs or (2) the same output with less of one or more inputs without increasing the amount of other inputs. In practice, the interest is on the relative position in terms of efficiency of a particular firm with respect to others. Therefore, technical efficiency is characterised by the relationship between observed production and some ideal or potential production (Greene, 1993). Although the beginning of the efficiency work can be traced to the 1950s (Farrell, 1957), there have been a growing interest on its use in benchmarking performance, predominantly as a means of identifying best practice and improving the efficiency of resource use within the agricultural industry (e.g., Defra 2004, SAC 2009). This paper deals with the estimation of technical efficiency for the agricultural sectors in several European countries and moreover, it aims to compare the efficiency amongst them using a metafrontier analysis. The use of this type of analysis is justified because a frontier, which represents the best available technology within a particular region/country cannot be strictly compared across other regions/countries, unless they operate under the same production set. The metafrontier analysis has been developed in a number of studies (Battese and Rao, 2002; Nkamleu et al., 2006; Chen and Song, 2006; O‟Donnell et al., 2008.) The metafrontier analysis in this paper, which uses data from the Farm Accountancy data Network (FADN), was focused on four farm types: two specialised farming types (i.e., specialist cereals, oilseed and protein crops and specialist dairying) and two more mixed farming sets (i.e., general field cropping and mixed farms), and was applied to a total of 11 countries namely Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the UK. For most of the countries the information was available from 1995 until 2007, excepting Hungary and Poland, for which it was available only since 2004. Also note that not all the farm types were available for all the countries. The structure of the paper is as follows: it starts presenting an overview of the metafrontier analysis used to compare technical efficiency amongst the European countries. It is followed by the empirical work, which comprises a description of the data used, the estimation and discussion of the results. Finally we present conclusions.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

MEASURING CROSS-SUBSIDISATION OF THE SINGLE PAYMENT SCHEME IN ENGLAND

The specific purpose of this paper is to estimate the extent to which decoupled payments under the Single Payments Scheme (SPS) are being used (either explicitly or implicitly) in England to support the continuation of activities that were previously supported by area and headage payments. In the absence of a farm survey, the methodology consists of using information on farm accounts collected through England’s Farm Business Survey (FBS), to estimate a multi-output cost function differentiated by farm size and farm type. This cost function, calibrated to match regional prices in England, is used to estimate the level of cross-subsidisation in the first full year after implementation of the SPS (2005/06). Results indicate that cross-subsidisation was occurring, which might infer that many farmers across England are coupling their payments. Whilst, these results are for the first year, and in that sense may reflect a transitional situation, they are nevertheless important because they provide empirical evidence to inform the discussion concerning the impact and future development of the SPS.English agriculture, single farm payment, micro-econometric models., Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q12, Q18,

Crop Substitution on UK Sugar Beet Farms and its Effects on the Environment: A Multi-Product Cost Function Approach

This paper analyzes the effect that the imminent reform of the EU sugar beet regime will have on United Kingdom (UK) sugar beet farms. Specifically, we estimate a multi-product cost function to analyze the effect the changes on the sugar beet price support and quota will have on the crop allocation of sugar beet farms and their aggregate use of inputs. Based on these estimates we discuss the implications that changes in the crop patterns may have on farm environmental variables such as soil loss and groundwater pollution.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Enhancing the integration of agri-food supply chains: theoretical issues and practical challenges in the UK malting barley supply chain

The purpose of this paper is to explore the issues that may affect the integration (i.e., the relationships) between the different actors that comprise a supply chain. Whist the theoretical part of the paper can be referred to any supply chain, the empirical part is focused on the UK barley to beer supply chain. The main motivation behind the topic is that improvements in the relationships amongst the different segments of a chain can enhance its efficiency and effectiveness, (e.g., through improvements in coordination and cooperation), and therefore, its competitiveness and long term sustainability. The paper is based on two complementary analyses: the first one consisted of a structural equation model (SEM) to determine those factors that affect the sustainability of relationships in the chain. The model is estimated based on a survey of 69 chain stakeholders. The second analysis comprised an in-depth case study based on an important malting-barley- to-beer supply chain in Eastern England, and had the purpose of providing further understanding of those aspects that were highlighted by the SEM. The overall results pointed out to five factors affecting the relationships in the malting barley to beer agri-food supply chain: communication, compatibility of aims in the supply chain, contractual relationships backed by professional regard and personal bonds; high levels of trust exist between the chain participants and a willingness to resolve any problems; and commercial benefit.supply chain management, malting barley supply chain, supply chain coordination, competitiveness, Agribusiness,

Collaborative supply chain initiatives as devices to cope with income variability in the Scottish red meat sector

The purpose of this paper is to discuss whether collaborative supply chain initiatives may help to provide income stability for farmers, focussing the analysis on the red meat supply chain in Scotland. Collaborative supply chains may contribute with two elements to attain higher income instability: first, greater demand stability and market access, and second, less variability in the price received for carcasses, as the produced output fits better the required specifications (i.e., no lost premia). The analysis of a survey applied to Scottish red meat producers showed that farmers that are part of a producers’ club do not differ from other farmers in their perception of marketing problems (e.g., price stability, etc.). However, in terms of their marketing aims, at least for beef producers, they seem to be more satisfied than farmers selling through auctions. An in-depth case study of a producers’ club in Scotland showed that farmers within the club are heterogeneous, not all of them taking advantage of the possibilities offered by the club in terms of improving the quality of their output and targeting better the required specifications, which creates potential to attain more stable incomeAgricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Food Security and Poverty, Livestock Production/Industries, Income instability, producers’ clubs, red meat sector, Scotland,

A Metafrontier Analysis of Technical Efficiency of Selected European Agricultures

Farm Management,