Polygyny and HIV in Malawi

We review the relationship between polygyny and HIV and identify a positive individual-level correlation, and a negative ecological correlation. We subsequently examine two mechanisms that contribute to the individual-level correlation. First, we find that men in polygynous marriages have more extramarital sex than men in monogamous unions (both in terms of self reports and in terms of spousal reports of the suspicion of adultery). Second, we find evidence of adverse selection of HIV positive women into polygynous unions via an investigation of the relationship between marriage order and polygyny status. We conclude with reflections about possible explanations for the distinct individual and ecological correlations.AIDS/HIV, Malawi, marriage, polygyny, sexual behavior, Sub-Saharan Africa, widowhood

Should home-based HIV testing and counseling services be offered periodically in programs of ARV treatment as prevention? A case study in Likoma (Malawi).

To reduce HIV incidence, prevention programs centered on the use of antiretrovirals require scaling-up HIV testing and counseling (HTC). Home-based HTC services (HBHTC) increase HTC coverage, but HBHTC has only been evaluated during one-off campaigns. Two years after an initial HBHTC campaign ("round 1"), we conducted another HBHTC campaign ("round 2") in Likoma (Malawi). HBHTC participation increased during round 2 among women (from 74 to 83%, P < 0.01). New HBHTC clients were recruited, especially at ages 25 and older. Only 6.9% of women but 15.9% of men remained unreached by HBHTC after round 2. HIV prevalence during round 2 was low among clients who were HIV-negative during round 1 (0.7%), but high among women who received their first ever HIV test during round 2 (42.8%). The costs per newly diagnosed infection increased significantly during round 2. Periodically conducting HBHTC campaigns can further increase HTC, but supplementary interventions to enroll individuals not reached by HBHTC are needed

Premarital Births and Union Formation in Rural South Africa.

CONTEXT: In rural South Africa, women often delay union formation until they are in their late 20s, though premarital first births are common. METHODS: Longitudinal data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa were used to examine the relationship between premarital birth and union entry among 55,158 nonmigrant women aged 10-35 who took part in at least one annual census from 1993 to 2012. Discrete-time event history models were used to determine whether the likelihood of union formation differed between women who had had a premarital first birth and those who had not. Associations between single motherhood and union type (marriages or nonmarital partnerships) were identified using logistic regression. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of women had had a premarital first birth and 25% had entered a first union. Women who had had a premarital first birth were less likely than other women to have entered a first union (odds ratio, 0.6). Women who had had a premarital birth in the past year were more likely than those without a premarital birth to have entered a union (1.5), but women had reduced odds of union formation if they had had a birth 1-2 years earlier (0.9) or at least five years earlier (0.8). Unions formed within two years of a premarital birth had an elevated likelihood of being nonmarital partnerships (1.2-1.4). CONCLUSIONS: Single motherhood is common in the Agincourt HDSS, and women with a premarital first birth face challenges in establishing committed unions with partners

Maternal weight and infections in early childhood: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine this association between maternal weight during pregnancy and the incidence of hospitalisations for infectious diseases during early childhood. DESIGN: A population-based cohort study. SETTING: A national cohort was created by combining data from the Swedish Medical Birth Register, the National Inpatient Register, the Cause of Death Register, the Total Population Register and the Longitudinal integration database for health insurance and labour market studies. PATIENTS: 693 007 children born in Sweden between 1998 and 2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of hospitalisations for infectious diseases during the first 5 years of life, overall and for categories of infectious diseases (lower respiratory, enteric, upper respiratory, genitourinary, perinatal, skin and soft tissue, neurological and eye, digestive tract, bloodstream and other infections). RESULTS: Overweight (body mass index (BMI) 25.0-29.9) and obesity (BMI≥30) during pregnancy were associated with a higher overall incidence of hospitalisations for infectious diseases, adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.05 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.06) and adjusted IRR 1.18 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.21). Overweight and obesity during pregnancy were strongly associated with perinatal infections, adjusted IRR 1.34 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.44) and adjusted IRR 1.72 (95% CI 1.57 to 1.88). In contrast, we found no association between maternal weight during pregnancy and infections of skin and soft tissue, the nervous system, the digestive tract or the bloodstream. CONCLUSIONS: We observed an association between overweight and obesity during pregnancy, and hospitalisations for infectious diseases during early childhood

Revisiting the Recommended Duration of Interviews Conducted by Mobile Phone in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Randomized Trial in Malawi

Guidelines for conducting surveys by mobile phone calls in low- and middle-income countries suggest keeping interviews short (&lt;20 minutes). The evidence supporting this recommendation is scant, even though limiting interview duration might reduce the amount of data generated by such surveys. We recruited nearly 2,500 mobile phone users in Malawi and randomly allocated them to 10-, 20-, or 30-minute phone interviews, all ending with questions on parental survival. Cooperation was high in all groups, and differences in completion rates were minimal. The extent of item nonresponse, age heaping, and temporal displacement of deaths in data on parental survival generally did not vary between study groups, but reports of maternal age at death were more reliable in longer interviews. Recommendations about the duration of mobile phone interviews might be too restrictive. They should not preclude additional modules, including ones on mortality, in mobile phone surveys conducted in LMICs

Misreporting of Patient Outcomes in the South African National HIV Treatment Database: Consequences for Programme Planning, Monitoring, and Evaluation.

Background: Monitoring progress toward global treatment targets using HIV programme data in sub-Saharan Africa has proved challenging. Constraints in routine data collection and reporting can lead to biased estimates of treatment outcomes. In 2010, South Africa introduced an electronic patient monitoring system for HIV patient visits, TIER.Net. We compare treatment status and outcomes recorded in TIER.Net to outcomes ascertained through detailed record review and tracing in order to assess discrepancies and biases in retention and mortality rates. Methods: The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in north-eastern South Africa is served by eight public primary healthcare facilities. Since 2014, HIV patient visits are logged electronically at these clinics, with patient records individually linked to their HDSS record. These data were used to generate a list of patients >90 days late for their last scheduled clinic visit and deemed lost to follow-up (LTFU). Patient outcomes were ascertained through a review of the TIER.Net database, physical patient files, registers kept by two non-government organizations that assist with patient tracing, cross-referencing with the HDSS records and supplementary physical tracing. Descriptive statistics were used to compare patient outcomes reported in TIER.Net to their outcome ascertained in the study. Results: Of 1,074 patients that were eligible for this analysis, TIER.Net classified 533 (49.6%) as LTFU, 80 (7.4%) as deceased, and 186 (17.3%) as transferred out. TIER.Net misclassified 36% of patient outcomes, overestimating LTFU and underestimating mortality and transfers out. TIER.Net missed 40% of deaths and 43% of transfers out. Patients categorized as LTFU in TIER.Net were more likely to be misclassified than patients classified as deceased or transferred out. Discussion: Misclassification of patient outcomes in TIER.Net has consequences for programme forecasting, monitoring and evaluation. Undocumented transfers accounted for the majority of misclassification, suggesting that the transfer process between clinics should be improved for more accurate reporting of patient outcomes. Processes that lead to correct classification of patient status including patient tracing should be strengthened. Clinics could cross-check all available data sources before classifying patients as LTFU. Programme evaluators and modelers could consider using correction factors to improve estimates of outcomes from TIER.Net

Factors associated with uptake of services to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV in a community cohort in rural Tanzania.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify factors associated with access to HIV care and antiretroviral (ARV) drugs for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV among HIV-positive pregnant women in a community cohort in rural Tanzania (Kisesa). METHODS: Kisesa-resident women who tested HIV-positive during HIV serosurveillance and were pregnant (while HIV-positive) between 2005 and 2012 were eligible. Community cohort records were linked to PMTCT and HIV clinic data from four facilities (PMTCT programme implemented in 2009; referrals to city-based hospitals since 2005) to ascertain service use. Factors associated with access to HIV care and ARVs during pregnancy were analysed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 24% of women accessed HIV care and 12% accessed ARVs during pregnancy (n=756 pregnancies to 420 women); these proportions increased over time. In multivariate analyses for 2005-2012, being married, prior voluntary counselling and testing, increasing age, increasing year of pregnancy and increasing duration of infection were independently associated with access to care and ARVs. Residence in roadside areas was an independent predictor of access to care but not ARVs. There was no evidence of an interaction with time period. CONCLUSIONS: Access to PMTCT services was low in this rural setting but improved markedly over time. There were fairly few sociodemographic differentials although support for young women and those without partners may be needed. Further decentralisation of HIV services to more remote areas, promotion of voluntary counselling and testing and implementation of Option B+ are likely to improve uptake and may bring women into care and treatment sooner after infection

Risk factors for service use and trends in coverage of different HIV testing and counselling models in northwest Tanzania between 2003 and 2010.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relative effectiveness of different HIV testing and counselling (HTC) services in improving HIV diagnosis rates and increasing HTC coverage in African settings. METHODS: Patient records from three HTC services [community outreach HTC during cohort study rounds (CO-HTC), walk-in HTC at the local health centre (WI-HTC) and antenatal HIV testing (ANC-HTC)] were linked to records from a community cohort study using a probabilistic record linkage algorithm. Characteristics of linked users of each HTC service were compared to those of cohort participants who did not use the HTC service using logistic regression. Data from three cohort study rounds between 2003 and 2010 were used to assess trends in the proportion of persons testing at different service types. RESULTS: The adjusted odds ratios for HTC use among men with increasing numbers of sexual partners in the past year, and among HIV-positive men and women compared to HIV-negative men and women, were higher at WI-HTC than at CO-HTC and ANC-HTC. Among sero-survey participants, the largest numbers of HIV-positive men and women learned their status via CO-HTC. However, we are likely to have underestimated the numbers diagnosed at WI-HTC and ANC-HTC, due to low sensitivity of the probabilistic record linkage algorithm. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to CO-HTC or ANC-HTC, WI-HTC was most likely to attract HIV-positive men and women, and to attract men with greater numbers of sexual partners. Further research should aim to optimise probabilistic record linkage techniques, and to investigate which types of HTC services most effectively link HIV-positive people to treatment services relative to the total cost per diagnosis made

Pregnancy Surveillance Methods within Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy identification and follow-up surveillance can enhance the reporting of pregnancy outcomes, including stillbirths and perinatal and early postnatal mortality. This paper reviews pregnancy surveillance methods used in Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We searched articles containing information about pregnancy identification methods used in HDSSs published between January 2002 and October 2019 using PubMed and Google Scholar. A total of 37 articles were included through literature review and 22 additional articles were identified via manual search of references. We reviewed the gray literature, including websites, online reports, data collection instruments, and HDSS protocols from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Study (CHAMPS) Network and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH). In total, we reviewed information from 52 HDSSs described in 67 sources. RESULTS: Substantial variability exists in pregnancy surveillance approaches across the 52 HDSSs, and surveillance methods are not always clearly documented. 42% of HDSSs applied restrictions based on residency duration to identify who should be included in surveillance. Most commonly, eligible individuals resided in the demographic surveillance area (DSA) for at least three months. 44% of the HDSSs restricted eligibility for pregnancy surveillance based on a woman's age, with most only monitoring women 15-49 years. 10% had eligibility criteria based on marital status, while 11% explicitly included unmarried women in pregnancy surveillance. 38% allowed proxy respondents to answer questions about a woman's pregnancy status in her absence. 20% of HDSSs supplemented pregnancy surveillance with investigations by community health workers or key informants and by linking HDSS data with data from antenatal clinics. CONCLUSIONS: Methodological guidelines for conducting pregnancy surveillance should be clearly documented and meticulously implemented, as they can have implications for data quality and accurately informing maternal and child health programs

Impact of linkage quality on inferences drawn from analyses using data with high rates of linkage errors in rural Tanzania

Background Studies based on high-quality linked data in developed countries show that even minor linkage errors, which occur when records of two different individuals are erroneously linked or when records belonging to the same individual are not linked, can impact bias and precision of subsequent analyses. We evaluated the impact of linkage quality on inferences drawn from analyses using data with substantial linkage errors in rural Tanzania. Methods Semi-automatic point-of-contact interactive record linkage was used to establish gold standard links between community-based HIV surveillance data and medical records at clinics serving the surveillance population. Automated probabilistic record linkage was used to create analytic datasets at minimum, low, medium, and high match score thresholds. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compare HIV care registration rates by testing modality (sero-survey vs. clinic) in each analytic dataset. We assessed linkage quality using three approaches: quantifying linkage errors, comparing characteristics between linked and unlinked data, and evaluating bias and precision of regression estimates. Results Between 2014 and 2017, 405 individuals with gold standard links were newly diagnosed with HIV in sero-surveys (n = 263) and clinics (n = 142). Automated probabilistic linkage correctly identified 233 individuals (positive predictive value [PPV] = 65%) at the low threshold and 95 individuals (PPV = 90%) at the high threshold. Significant differences were found between linked and unlinked records in primary exposure and outcome variables and for adjusting covariates at every threshold. As expected, differences attenuated with increasing threshold. Testing modality was significantly associated with time to registration in the gold standard data (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 4.98 for clinic-based testing, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.34, 7.42). Increasing false matches weakened the association (HR 2.76 at minimum match score threshold, 95% CI 1.73, 4.41). Increasing missed matches (i.e., increasing match score threshold and positive predictive value of the linkage algorithm) was strongly correlated with a reduction in the precision of coefficient estimate (R2 = 0.97; p = 0.03). Conclusions Similar to studies with more negligible levels of linkage errors, false matches in this setting reduced the magnitude of the association; missed matches reduced precision. Adjusting for these biases could provide more robust results using data with considerable linkage errors