The microeconometric estimation of treatment effects : an overview

Vocational training programmes have been the most important active labour market policy instrument in Germany in the last years. However, the still unsatisfying situation of the labour market has raised doubt on the efficiency of these programmes. In this paper, we analyse the effects of the participation in vocational training programmes on the duration of unemployment in Eastern Germany. Based on administrative data for the time between the October 1999 and December 2002 of the Federal Employment Administration, we apply a bivariate mixed proportional hazards model. By doing so, we are able to use the information of the timing of treatment as well as observable and unobservable influences to identify the treatment effects. The results show that a participation in vocational training prolongates the unemployment duration in Eastern Germany. Furthermore, the results suggest that locking-in effects are a serious problem of vocational training programmes. JEL Classification: J64, J24, I28, J6

Identifying effect heterogeneity to improve the effiency of job creation schemes in Germany?

Previous empirical studies of job creation schemes in Germany have shown that the average effects for the participating individuals are negative. However, we find that this is not true for all strata of the population. Identifying individual characteristics that are responsible for the effect heterogeneity and using this information for a better allocation of individuals therefore bears some scope for improving programme efficiency. We present several stratification strategies and discuss the occurring effect heterogeneity. Our findings show that job creation schemes do neither harm nor improve the labour market chances for most of the groups. Exceptions are long-term unemployed men in West and long-term unemployed women in East and West Germany who benefit from participation in terms of higher employment rates. JEL: C13 , J68 , H4

Sectoral heterogeneity in the employment effects of job creation schemes in Germany

Job creation schemes (JCS) have been one important programme of active labour market policy in Germany aiming at the re-integration of hard-to-place unemployed individuals into regular employment. In ontrast to earlier evaluation studies of these programmes based on survey data, we use administrative data containing more than 11,000 participants for our analysis and hence, can take effect heterogeneity explicitly into account. We focus on effect heterogeneity caused by differences in the implementation of programmes (economic sector, types of support and implementing institutions). The results are rather discouraging and show that in general, JCS are unable to improve the re-integration chances of participants into regular employment

New evidence on the effects of job creation schemes in Germany : a matching approach with threefold heterogeneity

This paper evaluates the effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany. Since previous empirical studies of these measures have been based on relatively small datasets and focussed on East Germany, this is the first study which allows to draw policy-relevant conclusions. The very informative and exhaustive dataset at hand not only justifies the application of a matching estimator but also allows to take account of threefold heterogeneity. The recently developed multiple treatment framework is used to evaluate the effects with respect to regional, individual and programme heterogeneity. The results show considerable differences with respect to these sources of heterogeneity, but the overall finding is very clear. At the end of our observation period, that is two years after the start of the programmes, participants in job creation schemes have a significantly lower success probability on the labour market in comparison to matched non-participants. JEL Classification: H43, J64, J68, C13, C4

The employment effects of job creation schemes in Germany : a microeconometric evaluation

In this paper we evaluate the employment effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany. Job creation schemes are a major element of active labour market policy in Germany and are targeted at long-term unemployed and other hard-to-place individuals. Access to very informative administrative data of the Federal Employment Agency justifies the application of a matching estimator and allows to account for individual (group-specific) and regional effect heterogeneity. We extend previous studies in four directions. First, we are able to evaluate the effects on regular (unsubsidised) employment. Second, we observe the outcome of participants and non-participants for nearly three years after programme start and can therefore analyse mid- and long-term effects. Third, we test the sensitivity of the results with respect to various decisions which have to be made during implementation of the matching estimator, e.g. choosing the matching algorithm or estimating the propensity score. Finally, we check if a possible occurrence of 'unobserved heterogeneity' distorts our interpretation. The overall results are rather discouraging, since the employment effects are negative or insignificant for most of the analysed groups. One notable exception are long-term unemployed individuals who benefit from participation. Hence, one policy implication is to address programmes to this problem group more tightly. JEL Classification: J68, H43, C1

Experimental and numerical studies of terahertz surface waves on a thin metamaterial film

We present experimental and numerical studies of localized terahertz surface waves on a subwavelength-thick metamaterial film consisting of in-plane split-ring resonators. A simple and intuitive model is derived that describes the propagation of surface waves as guided modes in a waveguide filled with a Lorentz-like medium. The effective medium model allows to deduce the dispersion relation of the surface waves in excellent agreement with the numerical data obtained from 3-D full-wave calculations. Both the accuracy of the analytical model and the numerical calculations are confirmed by spectroscopic terahertz time domain measurements.Comment: 3 pages, 3 figure

Macroeconometric evaluation of active labour market policies in Germany : a dynamic panel approach using regional data

Most evaluation studies of active labour market policies (ALMP) focus on the microeconometric evaluation approach using individual data. However, as the microeconometric approach usually ignores impacts on the non-participants, it should be seen as a first step to a complete evaluation which has to be followed by an analysis on the macroeconomic level. As a starting point for our analysis we discuss the effects of ALMP in a theoretical labour market framework augmented by ALMP. We estimate the impacts of ALMP in Germany for the time period 1999-2001 with regional data of 175 labour office districts. Due to the high persistence of German labour market data the application of a dynamic model is crucial. Furthermore our analysis accounts especially for the inherent simultaneity problem of ALMP. For West Germany we find positive effects of vocational training and job creation schemes on the labour market situation, whereas the results for East Germany do not allow profound statements. JEL Classification: C33, E24, H43, J64, J68

Individual employment effects of job creation schemes in Germany with respect to sectoral heterogeneity

"Job creation schemes (JCS) have been one important programme of active labour market policy (ALMP) in Germany for a long time. They aim at the re-integration of hard-to-place unemployed into regular employment. A thorough microeconometric evaluation of these programmes was hindered by the fact, that the available (survey) datasets have been too small to account for a possible occurrence of effect heterogeneity. However, identifying effect heterogeneity can help to improve the design and implementation of future programmes. Hence, we use an administrative dataset of the Federal Employment Agency, containing over 11,000 participants to analyse the employment effects of JCS on an individual level. Whereas in a previous paper we analysed these effects with respect to group-specific and regional heterogeneity, we focus here explicitly on effect heterogeneity caused by differences in the implementation of programmes. In particular, we first evaluate the effects with respect to the economic sector in which the JCS are accomplished. Second, we analyse if different types of promotion lead to different effects. And finally we examine if there are varying effects which can be attributed to different implementing institutions. The results are rather discouraging and show that JCS are in general not able to improve the re-integration chances of participants into regular employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))IAB-Bewerberangebotsdatei, IAB-Maßnahmeteilnehmergrunddatei, Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahme - Erfolgskontrolle, Wirkungsforschung, Wirtschaftszweige, Trägerschaft, berufliche Reintegration, Teilnehmer, beruflicher Verbleib, Geschlechterverteilung, Westdeutschland, Ostdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Identifying Effect Heterogeneity to Improve the Effiency of Job Creation Schemes in Germany?

Previous empirical studies of job creation schemes in Germany have shown that the average effects for the participating individuals are negative. However, we find that this is not true for all strata of the population. Identifying individual characteristics that are responsible for the effect heterogeneity and using this information for a better allocation of individuals therefore bears some scope for improving programme efficiency. We present several stratification strategies and discuss the occurring effect heterogeneity. Our findings show that job creation schemes do neither harm nor improve the labour market chances for most of the groups. Exceptions are long-term unemployed men in West and long-term unemployed women in East and West Germany who benefit from participation in terms of higher employment rates. --Evaluation,Active Labour Market Policy,Targeting,Efficient Allocation,Effect Heterogeneity