The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Incidental gallbladder cancer diagnosis confers survival advantage irrespective of tumour stage and characteristics.

BACKGROUND Incidental gallbladder cancer (IGBC) represents 50%-60% of gallbladder cancer cases. Data are conflicting on the role of IGBC diagnosis in oncological outcomes. Some studies suggest that IGBC diagnosis does not affect outcomes, while others that overall survival (OS) is longer in these cases compared to non-incidental diagnosis (NIGBC). Furthermore, some studies reported early tumour stages and histopathologic characteristics as possible confounders, while others not. AIM To investigate the role of IGBC diagnosis on patients' overall survival, especially after surgical treatment with curative intent. METHODS Retrospective analysis of all patient referrals with gallbladder cancer between 2008 and 2020 in a tertiary hepatobiliary centre. Statistical comparison of patient and tumour characteristics between IGBC and NIGBC subgroups was performed. Survival analysis for the whole cohort, surgical and non-surgical subgroups was done with the Kaplan-Meier method and the use of log rank test. Risk analysis was performed with univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS The cohort included 261 patients with gallbladder cancer. 65% of cases had NIGBC and 35% had IGBC. A total of 90 patients received surgical treatment (66% of IGBC cases and 19% of NIGBC cases). NIGBC patients had more advanced T stage and required more extensive resections than IGBC ones. OS was longer in patients with IGBC in the whole cohort (29 4 mo, < 0.001), as well as in the non-surgical (14 2 mo, < 0.001) and surgical subgroups (29 16.5 mo, = 0.001). Disease free survival (DFS) after surgery was longer in patients with IGBC (21.5 mo 8.5 mo, = 0.007). N stage and resection margin status were identified as independent predictors of OS and DFS. NIGBC diagnosis was identified as an independent predictor of OS. CONCLUSION IGBC diagnosis may confer a survival advantage independently of the pathological stage and tumour characteristics. Prospective studies are required to further investigate this, including detailed pathological analysis and molecular gene expression