Business cycle arithmetic: time variation measures and their relations

This paper tries to establish mathematical relationships between some of the most used concepts in the analysis of cyclical developments, such as the month-on-month and year-on-year percentage variations, or the annual rate of growth. Some of these relationships are already used in practice, but up to now never demonstrated in a formal way. The ultimate aim is to develop a set of precise analytical tools for the short term analysis of high frequency variables. Analytical derivations are followed by various empirical examples based on data on main Italian economic variables, both monthly (such as the consumer price index) and quarterly variables (like gross domestic product) for the most recent years, in order to illustrate the theoretical relationships and clarify their practical uselfuness.Strumenti matematici : ciclo economico

L'aritmetica del congiunturalista: misure di confronto temporale e loro relazioni

This paper tries to establish mathematical relationships between some of the most used concepts in the analysis of cyclical developments, such as the month-on-month and year-on-year percentage variations, or the annual rate of growth. Some of these relationships are already used in practice, but up to now never demonstrated in a formal way. The ultimate aim is to develop a set of precise analytical tools for the short term analysis of high frequency variables. Analytical derivations are followed by various empirical examples based on data on main Italian economic variables, both monthly (such as the consumer price index) and quarterly variables (like gross domestic product) for the most recent years, in order to illustrate the theoretical relationships and clarify their practical uselfuness

Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana

The aim of this paper is to build a tool for performing forecasting exercises, allowing to obtain a reliable estimate of Italian consumer price inflation. To reach this goal we estimate a simple three-equation model for the short term forecasting of twelve-month percentage variations of the Italian consumer price index. The starting point of the model is the decomposition of the general index in a main component, the so-called core inflation, capturing longer term tendencies and two additional volatile components, those of unprocessed food and energy prices. The idea is that it is exactly core inflation which is possible to explain and forecast with a set of basic economic variables acting as leading indicators

Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana

The aim of this paper is to build a tool for performing forecasting exercises, allowing to obtain a reliable estimate of Italian consumer price inflation. To reach this goal we estimate a simple three-equation model for the short term forecasting of twelve-month percentage variations of the Italian consumer price index. The starting point of the model is the decomposition of the general index in a main component, the so-called core inflation, capturing longer term tendencies and two additional volatile components, those of unprocessed food and energy prices. The idea is that it is exactly core inflation which is possible to explain and forecast with a set of basic economic variables acting as leading indicators

Inflazione per gruppi di famiglie e struttura dei consumi in Italia

The calculation of inflation rates for specific groups in Italy, according to family typology and profession, on various time horizons between 1996 and 2004, does not find significant differences. This result, surprising in particular for the first two years of the euro circulation, when a vivid debite developed on consumer prices dynamics, can be explained by two factors. First, the interaction of the particular developments in relative prices with the consumption structure by type of family and expenditure chapter. There are in fact significant differences in the percentage composition of expenditure among the various typologies of Italian families and thus in the “weights” implicit in the inflation felt by the different groups, which depart considerably from the national average weights. The paper also notes that the confusion on these weights is among the main reasons for the persistent gap between inflation perceived by consumers and actual inflation; the analysis of the statistical foundations behind the official measurement of consumer prices enables to offer additional explanations for the gap. Secondly, only some of the family groups have been able to modify the structure of their expenditure to reduce inflation actually felt. Last few years have seen a change, in some cases very significant, in the relative position of the various groups, together with marked modifications in the composition of expenditure in real terms of the different groups of families, mainly just because of the variations in relative prices. A change which, in absence of any erosions in nationwide consumption, can help explaining the widespread perceptions of increasing poverty in the country

L'aritmetica del congiunturalista: misure di confronto temporale e loro relazioni

This paper tries to establish mathematical relationships between some of the most used concepts in the analysis of cyclical developments, such as the month-on-month and year-on-year percentage variations, or the annual rate of growth. Some of these relationships are already used in practice, but up to now never demonstrated in a formal way. The ultimate aim is to develop a set of precise analytical tools for the short term analysis of high frequency variables. Analytical derivations are followed by various empirical examples based on data on main Italian economic variables, both monthly (such as the consumer price index) and quarterly variables (like gross domestic product) for the most recent years, in order to illustrate the theoretical relationships and clarify their practical uselfuness

Inflazione per gruppi di famiglie e struttura dei consumi in Italia

The calculation of inflation rates for specific groups in Italy, according to family typology and profession, on various time horizons between 1996 and 2004, does not find significant differences. This result, surprising in particular for the first two years of the euro circulation, when a vivid debite developed on consumer prices dynamics, can be explained by two factors. First, the interaction of the particular developments in relative prices with the consumption structure by type of family and expenditure chapter. There are in fact significant differences in the percentage composition of expenditure among the various typologies of Italian families and thus in the “weights” implicit in the inflation felt by the different groups, which depart considerably from the national average weights. The paper also notes that the confusion on these weights is among the main reasons for the persistent gap between inflation perceived by consumers and actual inflation; the analysis of the statistical foundations behind the official measurement of consumer prices enables to offer additional explanations for the gap. Secondly, only some of the family groups have been able to modify the structure of their expenditure to reduce inflation actually felt. Last few years have seen a change, in some cases very significant, in the relative position of the various groups, together with marked modifications in the composition of expenditure in real terms of the different groups of families, mainly just because of the variations in relative prices. A change which, in absence of any erosions in nationwide consumption, can help explaining the widespread perceptions of increasing poverty in the country

Inflation by family group and consumption structure in Italy

The calculation of inflation rates for specific groups in Italy, according to family typology and profession, on various time horizons between 1996 and 2004, does not find significant differences. This result, surprising in particular for the first two years of the euro circulation, when a vivid debite developed on consumer prices dynamics, can be explained by two factors. First, the interaction of the particular developments in relative prices with the consumption structure by type of family and expenditure chapter. There are in fact significant differences in the percentage composition of expenditure among the various typologies of Italian families and thus in the “weights” implicit in the inflation felt by the different groups, which depart considerably from the national average weights. The paper also notes that the confusion on these weights is among the main reasons for the persistent gap between inflation perceived by consumers and actual inflation; the analysis of the statistical foundations behind the official measurement of consumer prices enables to offer additional explanations for the gap. Secondly, only some of the family groups have been able to modify the structure of their expenditure to reduce inflation actually felt. Last few years have seen a change, in some cases very significant, in the relative position of the various groups, together with marked modifications in the composition of expenditure in real terms of the different groups of families, mainly just because of the variations in relative prices. A change which, in absence of any erosions in nationwide consumption, can help explaining the widespread perceptions of increasing poverty in the country.Distribution : Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis : Inflation

European rescue and recovery programmes against the Corona crisis

The current crisis is different from the situation 2008/2009, but again it is a tremendous challenge for the economies across Europe. The Corona-crisis is hitting the economies symmetrically, though with differences in magnitude levels, while the 2009 crisis was primarily a crisis of the banking industry and the manufacturing sector. This time, value chains are substantially affected. As the virus does not hit all countries at the same time, there will be distortions in the value chains over the next months. The assessments on the impact on national GDPs range from a best-case scenario -5% for Germany to a worst-case scenario of -12% for Italy. To deal with the impact of the crisis a European rescue programme is needed immediately, including bringing down infection rates and providing sufficient medical equipment and services. Regarding the economic support, the comprehensive efforts by the ECB and the Commission, including loosening the rules concerning state aid and the provision in the context of the SURE programme for short time work are very welcome. In a second phase, Europe will need a common recovery programme fostering economic development and coming back to sustainable growth quickly. Europe must secure open borders for goods, services and labour, which are crucial for the maintenance of the single market and for restarting cross-European value chains. Europe needs a large-scale and timely initiative to foster growth through public and private investments, focusing on health, technology, and the green economy. The Green Deal should play a key role for the design of the economic recovery programme. The 1.5 trillion euro plan foreseen by the Commission is appropriate to address the challenge faced by European economies. However, to avoid asymmetric rebounds within the EU after the emergency, the European recovery plan must be implemented soon and in a coordinated fashion. Unilateral national actions such as intra-EU border closures should be avoided as they increase uncertainty, lower business confidence, and raise costs. As supply chains are closely knit between EU member states, a common strategy for exiting the crisis will be of paramount importance to re-establish normal economic relationships among European firms and maintain the international competitiveness of the European industry