Interaction entre IDE, productivité et capital humain - Cas des industries manufacturières tunisiennes

Interaction entre IDE, productivité et capital humain - Cas des industries manufacturières tunisiennes

Dynamique des investissements, mutations sectorielles et convertibilité du compte de capital : impacts des mesures de libéralisation et expériences comparées Tunisie - Maroc

Morocco and Tunisia are performing in term of economic growth better than the average economic growth of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and middle-income countries. Tremendous efforts in terms of reforms and restructuring of the economy have been deployed in the early 80s. The outcomes of theses efforts start to make their fruit: limited inflation, controlled public deficits, and cautious exchange rate policy. In brief, the macroeconomic environment has been substantially improved. Both countries are also traditions of well anchored opening, in particular towards the old continent, as evidenced by their opening rates. This openness has increased with the signing of a multitude of partnership agreements of which the most important mattering is the one which concerns the free trade area with the EU on the horizon 2010-1012. These advances are important, but they must not ignore the inherent obstacles to growth and development of both countries. Without being comprehensive, external debts remain a source concern, especially in the case of Tunisia. Similarly, the quality of human resources, especially in terms of middle managers, is lacking. The policies of R & D and innovation are still in their infant stage. At least, many similarities exist between the two countries, but it should be noted that Morocco and Tunisia are not on the same growth path. Thus, wealth per capita in Tunisia is twice Morocco one. The aim of this study is to identify the strengths on which Morocco and Tunisia may rely to build their growth on solid and sustainable growth. We have identified two. One is based on a change management more flexible than current practice the two countries. The second concerns the effects of FDI on productivity. In a third time, we try to link the two leverage factors; in order to determine the impact of exchange rate policies on flows of FDI (and productivity). The originality of our approach lies to two levels: Concerning the relationship FDI - exchange rate policy, we propose a misalignment estimate, which is defined as the deviation of the real exchange rate relative to its equilibrium value. Unlike volatility, the distortion of the real exchange rate can have a much greater impact on the economies of small countries like Morocco and Tunisia. Indeed, steady deviations from the real exchange rate with regard to its trend of balance modify the internal relative prices and lead important costs of adjustment. These distortions can create at least four important phenomena of imbalance Indeed, continuous deviations of real exchange rate from its equilibrium modify the relative internal prices and induce important adjustment costs. These distortions may lead at least to four important phenomena of imbalance: i) external imbalance leading to a crisis of exchange, ii) an effect of deindustrialization followed by weak growth over a long period, iii) inflationary pressures and iv) protectionist pressures that tend to persist. The misalignment will be put in relations with the FDI flows in both countries. As for the methodological and in order to capture the effects of FDI on productivity, we estimate a production function using the approach proposed by Olley and Pakes (1996). The latter corrects the simultaneity bias due to the correlation between unobservable shocks of productivity and production factors. Finally, we propose recommendations with sector profiling and refocused specializations of the two countries

Dynamique des investissements, mutations sectorielles et convertibilité du compte de capital : impacts des mesures de libéralisation et expériences comparées Tunisie - Maroc

Morocco and Tunisia are performing in term of economic growth better than the average economic growth of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and middle-income countries. Tremendous efforts in terms of reforms and restructuring of the economy have been deployed in the early 80s. The outcomes of theses efforts start to make their fruit: limited inflation, controlled public deficits, and cautious exchange rate policy. In brief, the macroeconomic environment has been substantially improved. Both countries are also traditions of well anchored opening, in particular towards the old continent, as evidenced by their opening rates. This openness has increased with the signing of a multitude of partnership agreements of which the most important mattering is the one which concerns the free trade area with the EU on the horizon 2010-1012. These advances are important, but they must not ignore the inherent obstacles to growth and development of both countries. Without being comprehensive, external debts remain a source concern, especially in the case of Tunisia. Similarly, the quality of human resources, especially in terms of middle managers, is lacking. The policies of R & D and innovation are still in their infant stage. At least, many similarities exist between the two countries, but it should be noted that Morocco and Tunisia are not on the same growth path. Thus, wealth per capita in Tunisia is twice Morocco one. The aim of this study is to identify the strengths on which Morocco and Tunisia may rely to build their growth on solid and sustainable growth. We have identified two. One is based on a change management more flexible than current practice the two countries. The second concerns the effects of FDI on productivity. In a third time, we try to link the two leverage factors; in order to determine the impact of exchange rate policies on flows of FDI (and productivity). The originality of our approach lies to two levels: Concerning the relationship FDI - exchange rate policy, we propose a misalignment estimate, which is defined as the deviation of the real exchange rate relative to its equilibrium value. Unlike volatility, the distortion of the real exchange rate can have a much greater impact on the economies of small countries like Morocco and Tunisia. Indeed, steady deviations from the real exchange rate with regard to its trend of balance modify the internal relative prices and lead important costs of adjustment. These distortions can create at least four important phenomena of imbalance Indeed, continuous deviations of real exchange rate from its equilibrium modify the relative internal prices and induce important adjustment costs. These distortions may lead at least to four important phenomena of imbalance: i) external imbalance leading to a crisis of exchange, ii) an effect of deindustrialization followed by weak growth over a long period, iii) inflationary pressures and iv) protectionist pressures that tend to persist. The misalignment will be put in relations with the FDI flows in both countries. As for the methodological and in order to capture the effects of FDI on productivity, we estimate a production function using the approach proposed by Olley and Pakes (1996). The latter corrects the simultaneity bias due to the correlation between unobservable shocks of productivity and production factors. Finally, we propose recommendations with sector profiling and refocused specializations of the two countries

The Impact of Taking into Account Information Asymmetries and the Credit Market Structure in the Assessment of Borrowers' Credit Worthiness: Case of Tunisia

We attempt to assess borrowers’ credit worthiness in three scenarios one heralding prevalence of information asymmetries the second heralding absence of information asymmetries and the third a realistic scenario encompassing both features for the sake of determining which one gives the best outcome in terms of goodness of fit and adequacy of the model specification with the corresponding market structure of the credit market in purview. The added value of this research is that, when we want to estimate any entity, the explanatory variables carrying market imperfections must be manifested and not implicitly invocated because of the endogeneity of market imperfections and the market structure should be specified clearly; otherwise, the estimation is inadequate and the empirical results do not correspond to the theoretical predilections. In other words, the conformity of empirical results with theoretical predilections does not rely on the absence of information asymmetries, whose full recognition does not introduce spuriousness into empirical results. The research is a comparative cross investigation of scenarios highlighting the best fit to borrowers' Creditworthiness assessment and deducing through logical analysis the role payed by information asymmetries and the banking market power in shaping this fit

Stochastic Production Frontier and Technical Inefficiency: A Sensitivity Analysis

The present paper focuses attention on the sensitivity of technical inefficiency to most commonly used one-sided distributions of the inefficiency error term, namely the truncated normal, the half-normal, and the exponential distributions. A generalized version of the half-normal, which does not embody the zero-mean restriction, is also explored. For each distribution, the likelihood function and the counterpart of the estimator of technical efficiency are explicitly stated (Jondrow, J., Lovell, C. A. K., Materov, I. S., Schmidt, P. ([1982]), On estimation of technical inefficiency in the stochastic frontier production function model, J. Econometrics19:233-238). Based on our panel data set, related to Tunisian manufacturing firms over the period 1983-1993, formal tests lead to a strong rejection of the zero-mean restriction embodied in the half normal distribution. Our main conclusion is that the degree of measured inefficiency is very sensitive to the postulated assumptions about the distribution of the one-sided error term. The estimated inefficiency indices are, however, unaffected by the choice of the functional form for the production function.Stochastic frontier, Farrell's technical inefficiency, Unbalanced panel data, Composed disturbance error, One-sided distribution,

Interaction entre IDE, productivité et capital humain Cas des industries manufacturières tunisiennes

L’objet de cet article est d’évaluer l’impact de la présence étrangère sur la productivité des entreprises tunisiennes. Cette analyse sera effectuée sur la base d’un panel d’entreprises manufacturières tunisiennes couvrant la période 1998-2004 issu de l’enquête annuelle des entreprises réalisée par l’Institut National de la Statistique en Tunisie. La méthode d'estimation des paramètres de la fonction de production retenue dans cette étude relève de l’approche proposée par Olley et Pakes (1996) en réponse au biais de simultanéité du à la corrélation instantanée qui existe entre les chocs de productivités inobservables et les facteurs de production. Nos résultats montrent que la présence étrangère a un effet négatif sur la productivité des entreprises tunisiennes. Certains auteurs attribuent cet effet négatif à une faible capacité d'absorption technologique des firmes locales . Nous avons cherché à tester cette hypothèse. Ainsi, l'effet spillover devient-il fonction de la capacité d'absorption. Selon nos estimations, l'effet spillover devient de plus en plus important au fur et à mesure que la firme se rapproche de la courbe d'efficience et devient positif lorsque sa capacité d'adaptation dépasse un certain seuil. Ce résultat implique que la présence étrangère dans un secteur peut s'avérer bénéfique pour les entreprises dotées de fortes capacités d'absorption

Interaction entre IDE, productivité et capital humain Cas des industries manufacturières tunisiennes

L’objet de cet article est d’évaluer l’impact de la présence étrangère sur la productivité des entreprises tunisiennes. Cette analyse sera effectuée sur la base d’un panel d’entreprises manufacturières tunisiennes couvrant la période 1998-2004 issu de l’enquête annuelle des entreprises réalisée par l’Institut National de la Statistique en Tunisie. La méthode d'estimation des paramètres de la fonction de production retenue dans cette étude relève de l’approche proposée par Olley et Pakes (1996) en réponse au biais de simultanéité du à la corrélation instantanée qui existe entre les chocs de productivités inobservables et les facteurs de production. Nos résultats montrent que la présence étrangère a un effet négatif sur la productivité des entreprises tunisiennes. Certains auteurs attribuent cet effet négatif à une faible capacité d'absorption technologique des firmes locales . Nous avons cherché à tester cette hypothèse. Ainsi, l'effet spillover devient-il fonction de la capacité d'absorption. Selon nos estimations, l'effet spillover devient de plus en plus important au fur et à mesure que la firme se rapproche de la courbe d'efficience et devient positif lorsque sa capacité d'adaptation dépasse un certain seuil. Ce résultat implique que la présence étrangère dans un secteur peut s'avérer bénéfique pour les entreprises dotées de fortes capacités d'absorption