50 research outputs found

    Sustainability Science

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    Meeting fundamental human needs while preserving earth's life support systems will require an accelerated transition toward sustainability. A new field of sustainability science is emerging that seeks to understand the fundamental character of interactions between nature and society and to encourage the interactions along more sustainable trajectories. Such an integrated, place-based science will require new research strategies and institutional innovations to enable them especially in developing countries still separated by deepening divides from mainstream science. Sustainability science needs to be widely discussed in the scientific community, reconnected to the political agenda for sustainable development, and become a major focus for research

    Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

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    Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US9.21trillionin2014to9.21 trillion in 2014 to 24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at 154(UI133181)percapitain2030and154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and 195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

    COVID-19 in hospitalized lung and non-lung solid organ transplant recipients: A comparative analysis from a multicenter study

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    Lung transplant recipients (LTR) with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have higher mortality than non-lung solid organ transplant recipients (SOTR), but direct comparisons are limited. Risk factors for mortality specifically in LTR have not been explored. We performed a multicenter cohort study of adult SOTR with COVID-19 to compare mortality by 28 days between hospitalized LTR and non-lung SOTR. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess comorbidity-adjusted mortality among LTR vs. non-lung SOTR and to determine risk factors for death in LTR. Of 1,616 SOTR with COVID-19, 1,081 (66%) were hospitalized including 120/159 (75%) LTR and 961/1457 (66%) non-lung SOTR (p =.02). Mortality was higher among LTR compared to non-lung SOTR (24% vs. 16%, respectively, p =.032), and lung transplant was independently associated with death after adjusting for age and comorbidities (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0–2.6, p =.04). Among LTR, chronic lung allograft dysfunction (aOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.0–11.3, p =.05) was the only independent risk factor for mortality and age >65 years, heart failure and obesity were not independently associated with death. Among SOTR hospitalized for COVID-19, LTR had higher mortality than non-lung SOTR. In LTR, chronic allograft dysfunction was independently associated with mortality

    Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

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    Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo
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