Validation of models with constant bias: an applied approach

Objective. This paper presents extensions to the statistical validation method based on the procedure of Freese when a model shows constant bias (CB) in its predictions and illustrate the method with data from a new mechanistic model that predict weight gain in cattle. Materials and methods. The extensions were the hypothesis tests and maximum anticipated error for the alternative approach, and the confidence interval for a quantile of the distribution of errors. Results. The model evaluated showed CB, once the CB is removed and with a confidence level of 95%, the magnitude of the error does not exceed 0.575 kg. Therefore, the validated model can be used to predict the daily weight gain of cattle, although it will require an adjustment in its structure based on the presence of CB to increase the accuracy of its forecasts. Conclusions. The confidence interval for the 1-α quantile of the distribution of errors after correcting the constant bias, allows determining the top limit for the magnitude of the error of prediction and use it to evaluate the evolution of the model in the forecasting of the system. The confidence interval approach to validate a model is more informative than the hypothesis tests for the same purpose

A problem-/case-based learning approach as an useful tool for studying glycogen metabolism and its regulation

Versión preprint del manuscrito de los autores, publicado finalmente en: Biochemistry and Molecular Biology Education, con DOI: 10.1002/bmb.21449Metabolism and its regulation is one of the most complex and difficult topics for students learning biochemistry. A problem-/case-based learning (PBL) approach can be useful to help biochemistry students to fulfill the goal of acquiring an integrated view of metabolism and its regulation. The present article describes our experience enrolling volunteer students to learn glycogen metabolism making use of a design-based research methodology to develop teaching learning sequences focused on a PBL approach. Enrolled undergraduate students had better final scores than those students that did not participates. Furthermore, enrolled students were satisfied with the experience, finding it interesting, formative, and challenging.This work was supported by the University of Málaga (Spain) with funds granted to the educational innovation projects PIE15-163, PIE17-145, and PIE19-057. The experimental work carried out by our group is supported by grants PID2019-105010RB-I00 and EDU2017-82197-P (Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities), UMA18-FEDERJA-220 (Andalusian Government and FEDER) and funds from group BIO 267 (Andalusian Government), as well as funds from “Plan Propio de Investigación y Transferencia” (U. Málaga)

Application of six detection methods for analysis of paralytic shellfish toxins in shellfish from four regions within Latin America

With the move away from use of mouse bioassay (MBA) to test bivalve mollusc shellfish for paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxins, countries around the world are having to adopt non-animal-based alternatives that fulfil ethical and legal requirements. Various assays have been developed which have been subjected to single-laboratory and multi-laboratory validation studies, gaining acceptance as official methods of analysis and approval for use in some countries as official control testing methods. The majority of validation studies conducted to date do not, however, incorporate shellfish species sourced from Latin America. Consequently, this study sought to investigate the performance of five alternative PSP testing methods together with the MBA, comparing the PSP toxin data generated both qualitatively and quantitatively. The methods included a receptor binding assay (RBA), two liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (LC-FLD) methods including both pre-column and post-column oxidation, liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and a commercial lateral flow assay (LFA) from Scotia. A total of three hundred and forty-nine shellfish samples from Argentina, Mexico, Chile and Uruguay were assessed. For the majority of samples, qualitative results compared well between methods. Good statistical correlations were demonstrated between the majority of quantitative results, with a notably excellent correlation between the current EU reference method using pre-column oxidation LC-FLD and LC-MS/MS. The LFA showed great potential for qualitative determination of PSP toxins, although the findings of high numbers of false-positive results and two false negatives highlighted that some caution is still needed when interpreting results. This study demonstrated that effective replacement methods are available for countries that no longer wish to use the MBA, but highlighted the importance of comparing toxin data from the replacement method using local shellfish species of concern before implementing new methods in official control testing programs

Functional characterization of a melon alcohol acyl-transferase gene family involved in the biosynthesis of ester volatiles. Identification of the crucial role of a threonine residue for enzyme activity

Volatile esters, a major class of compounds contributing to the aroma of many fruit, are synthesized by alcohol acyl-transferases (AAT). We demonstrate here that, in Charentais melon (Cucumis melo var. cantalupensis), AAT are encoded by a gene family of at least four members with amino acid identity ranging from 84% (Cm-AAT1/Cm-AAT2) and 58% (Cm-AAT1/Cm-AAT3) to only 22% (Cm-AAT1/Cm-AAT4). All encoded proteins, except Cm-AAT2, were enzymatically active upon expression in yeast and show differential substrate preferences. Cm-AAT1 protein produces a wide range of short and long-chain acyl esters but has strong preference for the formation of E-2-hexenyl acetate and hexyl hexanoate. Cm-AAT3 also accepts a wide range of substrates but with very strong preference for producing benzyl acetate. Cm-AAT4 is almost exclusively devoted to the formation of acetates, with strong preference for cinnamoyl acetate. Site directed mutagenesis demonstrated that the failure of Cm-AAT2 to produce volatile esters is related to the presence of a 268-alanine residue instead of threonine as in all active AAT proteins. Mutating 268-A into 268-T of Cm-AAT2 restored enzyme activity, while mutating 268-T into 268-A abolished activity of Cm-AAT1. Activities of all three proteins measured with the prefered substrates sharply increase during fruit ripening. The expression of all Cm-AAT genes is up-regulated during ripening and inhibited in antisense ACC oxidase melons and in fruit treated with the ethylene antagonist 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP), indicating a positive regulation by ethylene. The data presented in this work suggest that the multiplicity of AAT genes accounts for the great diversity of esters formed in melon

Multi-resolution anisotropy studies of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We report a multi-resolution search for anisotropies in the arrival directions of cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory with local zenith angles up to $80^\circ$ and energies in excess of 4 EeV ($4 \times 10^{18}$ eV). This search is conducted by measuring the angular power spectrum and performing a needlet wavelet analysis in two independent energy ranges. Both analyses are complementary since the angular power spectrum achieves a better performance in identifying large-scale patterns while the needlet wavelet analysis, considering the parameters used in this work, presents a higher efficiency in detecting smaller-scale anisotropies, potentially providing directional information on any observed anisotropies. No deviation from isotropy is observed on any angular scale in the energy range between 4 and 8 EeV. Above 8 EeV, an indication for a dipole moment is captured; while no other deviation from isotropy is observed for moments beyond the dipole one. The corresponding $p$-values obtained after accounting for searches blindly performed at several angular scales, are $1.3 \times 10^{-5}$ in the case of the angular power spectrum, and $2.5 \times 10^{-3}$ in the case of the needlet analysis. While these results are consistent with previous reports making use of the same data set, they provide extensions of the previous works through the thorough scans of the angular scales.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

Ultrahigh-energy neutrino follow-up of Gravitational Wave events GW150914 and GW151226 with the Pierre Auger Observatory

On September 14, 2015 the Advanced LIGO detectors observed their first gravitational-wave (GW) transient GW150914. This was followed by a second GW event observed on December 26, 2015. Both events were inferred to have arisen from the merger of black holes in binary systems. Such a system may emit neutrinos if there are magnetic fields and disk debris remaining from the formation of the two black holes. With the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory we can search for neutrinos with energy above 100 PeV from point-like sources across the sky with equatorial declination from about -65 deg. to +60 deg., and in particular from a fraction of the 90% confidence-level (CL) inferred positions in the sky of GW150914 and GW151226. A targeted search for highly-inclined extensive air showers, produced either by interactions of downward-going neutrinos of all flavors in the atmosphere or by the decays of tau leptons originating from tau-neutrino interactions in the Earth's crust (Earth-skimming neutrinos), yielded no candidates in the Auger data collected within $\pm 500$ s around or 1 day after the coordinated universal time (UTC) of GW150914 and GW151226, as well as in the same search periods relative to the UTC time of the GW candidate event LVT151012. From the non-observation we constrain the amount of energy radiated in ultrahigh-energy neutrinos from such remarkable events.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

Calibration of the Logarithmic-Periodic Dipole Antenna (LPDA) Radio Stations at the Pierre Auger Observatory using an Octocopter

An in-situ calibration of a logarithmic periodic dipole antenna with a frequency coverage of 30 MHz to 80 MHz is performed. Such antennas are part of a radio station system used for detection of cosmic ray induced air showers at the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the so-called Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA). The directional and frequency characteristics of the broadband antenna are investigated using a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) carrying a small transmitting antenna. The antenna sensitivity is described by the vector effective length relating the measured voltage with the electric-field components perpendicular to the incoming signal direction. The horizontal and meridional components are determined with an overall uncertainty of 7.4^{+0.9}_{-0.3} % and 10.3^{+2.8}_{-1.7} % respectively. The measurement is used to correct a simulated response of the frequency and directional response of the antenna. In addition, the influence of the ground conductivity and permittivity on the antenna response is simulated. Both have a negligible influence given the ground conditions measured at the detector site. The overall uncertainties of the vector effective length components result in an uncertainty of 8.8^{+2.1}_{-1.3} % in the square root of the energy fluence for incoming signal directions with zenith angles smaller than 60{\deg}.Comment: Published version. Updated online abstract only. Manuscript is unchanged with respect to v2. 39 pages, 15 figures, 2 table

Azimuthal asymmetry in the risetime of the surface detector signals of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The azimuthal asymmetry in the risetime of signals in Auger surface detector stations is a source of information on shower development. The azimuthal asymmetry is due to a combination of the longitudinal evolution of the shower and geometrical effects related to the angles of incidence of the particles into the detectors. The magnitude of the effect depends upon the zenith angle and state of development of the shower and thus provides a novel observable, $(\sec \theta)_\mathrm{max}$, sensitive to the mass composition of cosmic rays above $3 \times 10^{18}$ eV. By comparing measurements with predictions from shower simulations, we find for both of our adopted models of hadronic physics (QGSJETII-04 and EPOS-LHC) an indication that the mean cosmic-ray mass increases slowly with energy, as has been inferred from other studies. However, the mass estimates are dependent on the shower model and on the range of distance from the shower core selected. Thus the method has uncovered further deficiencies in our understanding of shower modelling that must be resolved before the mass composition can be inferred from $(\sec \theta)_\mathrm{max}$.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Highlights from the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is the world's largest cosmic ray observatory. Our current exposure reaches nearly 40,000 km$^2$ str and provides us with an unprecedented quality data set. The performance and stability of the detectors and their enhancements are described. Data analyses have led to a number of major breakthroughs. Among these we discuss the energy spectrum and the searches for large-scale anisotropies. We present analyses of our X$_{max}$ data and show how it can be interpreted in terms of mass composition. We also describe some new analyses that extract mass sensitive parameters from the 100% duty cycle SD data. A coherent interpretation of all these recent results opens new directions. The consequences regarding the cosmic ray composition and the properties of UHECR sources are briefly discussed.Comment: 9 pages, 12 figures, talk given at the 33rd International Cosmic Ray Conference, Rio de Janeiro 201