253 research outputs found

    Case Notes

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    Shift in recreational fishing catches as a function of an extreme cold event

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    There is an increasing recognition that the influence of extreme climate events (ECE) can be more significant in structuring ecosystem dynamics than the gradual effects of climate change. Still, our understanding of the effects of climate extremes on ecosystem services such as marine fisheries lags behind those of effects of gradual change. The significance of ECEs depends on the severity of the disturbance event and the resilience of a fish community. South Florida experienced an extreme cold spell in 2010 that provided the opportunity to study recreational fisheries resilience to ECEs. Our main goal was to examine how recreational fishing catch structures responded to the cold spell, and illustrate any spatial-specific recovery trajectory dynamics after extreme ecological responses. To address this, we implemented multivariate and nonlinear statistics on fishing guide reports for 20 recreational species. A significant shift in the catch structure occurred after the event, suggesting a high sensitivity of fish populations and fisheries in the region to ECEs. All fishing regions considered were affected, but the trajectory of the response and recovery varied across study areas. While some fish species experienced an expected decline (due to mortality), other species manifested an increase in catch. Of the main seven species considered in nonlinear models, three experienced a decline (bonefish, snook, goliath grouper), two experienced an increase (red drum, gray snapper), and the two had various weak trends (tarpon, spotted seatrout). Three years after the event, the catch structure has not returned to the original state, indicating a possible state shift, whose stability needs to be determined in future tracking of affected populations. Future work should also address the extent to which harvest may interfere with resilience to ECEs. Our work highlights the need to account for rare environmental forcing induced by ECEs to ensure the ecological and economical sustainability of key services such as recreational fisheries

    Resilience of a tropical sport fish population to a severe cold event varies across five estuaries in southern Florida

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    For species that are closely managed, understanding population resilience to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances (i.e., recovery trajectories across broad spatial areas) can guide which suite of management actions are available to mitigate any impacts. During January 2010, an extreme cold event in south Florida caused widespread mortality of common snook, Centropomus undecimalis, a popular sport fish. Interpretation of trends using fishery-independent monitoring data in five south Florida estuaries showed that changes in catch rates of adult snook (\u3e500 mm standard length) varied between no effects postevent to large effects and 4-yr recoveries. The reasons for the variation across estuaries are unknown, but are likely related to differences in estuary geomorphology and habitat availability (e.g., extent of deep rivers and canals) and differences in the proportions of behavior contingents (i.e., segments of the population that use divergent movement tactics) that place snook in different areas of the estuary during winter. Emerging awareness of the presence of behavior contingents, identification of overwintering sites, and improvements of abundance indices in remote nursery habitats should provide a better understanding of population resilience to disturbance events for snook. Given that changes in the frequency of short-lived, severe cold events are currently unknown, the findings and management actions described here for a tropical species living at the edge of its distribution should be useful to scientists forecasting the effects of climate change

    Time lags: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

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    Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex ways that are difficult to predict. Coordinated long-term research and analysis are required to assess how these changes will affect a diverse array of ecosystem services. This paper is part of a series that is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network. This effort revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling scientific case study about “what their site would look like” in 50 or 100 yr. As the site results were prepared, themes emerged, and the case studies were grouped into separate papers along five themes: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects and compiled into this special issue. This paper addresses the time lags theme with five examples from diverse biomes including tundra (Arctic), coastal upwelling (California Current Ecosystem), montane forests (Coweeta), and Everglades freshwater and coastal wetlands (Florida Coastal Everglades) LTER sites. Its objective is to demonstrate the importance of different types of time lags, in different kinds of ecosystems, as drivers of ecosystem structure and function and how these can effectively be addressed with long-term studies. The concept that slow, interactive, compounded changes can have dramatic effects on ecosystem structure, function, services, and future scenarios is apparent in many systems, but they are difficult to quantify and predict. The case studies presented here illustrate the expanding scope of thinking about time lags within the LTER network and beyond. Specifically, they examine what variables are best indicators of lagged changes in arctic tundra, how progressive ocean warming can have profound effects on zooplankton and phytoplankton in waters off the California coast, how a series of species changes over many decades can affect Eastern deciduous forests, and how infrequent, extreme cold spells and storms can have enduring effects on fish populations and wetland vegetation along the Southeast coast and the Gulf of Mexico. The case studies highlight the need for a diverse set of LTER (and other research networks) sites to sort out the multiple components of time lag effects in ecosystems
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