"The Look of Stagniation: Romania's Erratic Transition"

A transition path is expected to lead, eventually, to economic performance and sectoral structure typical of market economies. This twofold result would issue from a complex resource re-allocation process, almost automatically igniting a new mechanism of accumulation and growth. Romania's experience of persistent fluctuations around a descending trend, however, seems to contradict such notion of the one-way, self-fuelling path. It causes us to rethink some of the analytical tools and theories economists are using everyday. In this paper, I will offer the reflections of an academician together with, hopefully, some more practical suggestions. My main point is that an analysis focusing solely upon resource re-allocation mechanisms cannot fully account for Romania's erratic transition because it tends to miss the link with the dual processes of accumulation and creation of new resources. I will, therefore, reconstruct the "other side" of Romania's story by looking at its dynamic structure, described by the distribution of the economy's sectoral paths. The evolution over time of such distribution is the key to understanding the two issues of macroeconomic vulnerability and the non-sustainability of the country's current situation. Thus, the dynamics of Romania's economy is treated as a specimen of an independent variety of transition. It is one that not only proves unable to initialise and then sustain long-term growth; it seems to actually absorb and destroy more resources than it creates, in this way generating a slow agony from time to time interrupted sudden bursts of activity. The term dynamic trap is meant to describe such a repeating pattern of wild fluctuations around a contracting trend. Due partly to the short time horizon and data availability, the conclusions of the foregoing analysis can only be tentative. Still, they clearly point out the need to re-consider policy for Romania and similar countries. In particular, measures are required to put in place and to enhance mechanisms of technology transfers, to re-orient sectoral composition that generates trade specialization, and generally to create conditions for an accelerated process of accumulation of physical as well as human capital assets. The economic environment in such countries seems unable to process macroeconomic policies in the expected way.

Dynamic Complementarities, Efficiency and Nash Equilibria for Populations of Firms and Workers

We consider an economy with two types of firms (innovative and non-innovative) and two types of workers (skilled and unskilled), where workers' decisions are driven by imitative behavior, and thus the evolution of such an economy depends on the initial distribution of the firms. We show that there exists a continuous of high level steady states and only one low level and asymptotically stable equilibrium. There exists a threshold value on the initial number of firms to be overcome it to located in the basin of attraction of one of the high level equilibrium. We show that in each high level equilibrium there coexists a share of innovative firms with a share of non-innovative firms, and a share of skilled workers (human capital) coexisting with a share of unskilled workers. But if the initial share of innovative firms is lower than the threshold value, then the economy evolves to a low level equilibrium wholly composed by non-innovative firms and unskilled workers. Finally, we characterise the equilibria as the evolutionarily stable strategies against a field.Imitative Behavior, Poverty Traps, Strategic Complementarities, Two Population Normal Form Game, Threshold Value.

Trajetória de crescimento da economia brasileira e mudança estrutural de 1971 a 2008: uma interpretação a partir do framework space

O objetivo do texto é analisar a trajetória de crescimento da economia brasileira dos anos de 1970 até 2008, considerando as flutuações do investimento e da produtividade como determinantes do comportamento dessa trajetória. Assim, identificamos e qualificamos diferentes fases ou caminhos de crescimento compondo a trajetória de longo prazo. O comportamento oscilatório dessa trajetória tem sido atribuído a conjecturas de várias naturezas; aqui enfatizaremos as mudanças nas políticas econômicas e seus efeitos sobre a estrutura produtiva via mudança estrutural induzida que repercute na dinâmica observada. Apoiados na visão kaldoriana e neo-schumpeteriana introduziremos o Framework Space como instrumento de análise da dinâmica da trajetória de crescimento econômico do Brasil

The Look of Stagniation : Romania's Erratic Transition

A transition path is expected to lead, eventually, to economic performance and sectoral structure typical of market economies. This twofold result would issue from a complex resource re-allocation process, almost automatically igniting a new mechanism of accumulation and growth. Romania's experience of persistent fluctuations around a descending trend, however, seems to contradict such notion of the one-way, self-fuelling path. It causes us to rethink some of the analytical tools and theories economists are using everyday. In this paper, I will offer the reflections of an academician together with, hopefully, some more practical suggestions. My main point is that an analysis focusing solely upon resource re-allocation mechanisms cannot fully account for Romania's erratic transition because it tends to miss the link with the dual processes of accumulation and creation of new resources. I will, therefore, reconstruct the "other side" of Romania's story by looking at its dynamic structure, described by the distribution of the economy's sectoral paths. The evolution over time of such distribution is the key to understanding the two issues of macroeconomic vulnerability and the non-sustainability of the country's current situation. Thus, the dynamics of Romania's economy is treated as a specimen of an independent variety of transition. It is one that not only proves unable to initialise and then sustain long-term growth; it seems to actually absorb and destroy more resources than it creates, in this way generating a slow agony from time to time interrupted sudden bursts of activity. The term dynamic trap is meant to describe such a repeating pattern of wild fluctuations around a contracting trend. Due partly to the short time horizon and data availability, the conclusions of the foregoing analysis can only be tentative. Still, they clearly point out the need to re-consider policy for Romania and similar countries. In particular, measures are required to put in place and to enhance mechanisms of technology transfers, to re-orient sectoral composition that generates trade specialization, and generally to create conditions for an accelerated process of accumulation of physical as well as human capital assets. The economic environment in such countries seems unable to process macroeconomic policies in the expected way

Multisectoral models and joint production

Digitised version produced by the EUI Library and made available online in 2020

The Look of Stagniation : Romania\u27s Erratic Transition

A transition path is expected to lead, eventually, to economic performance and sectoral structure typical of market economies. This twofold result would issue from a complex resource re-allocation process, almost automatically igniting a new mechanism of accumulation and growth. Romania\u27s experience of persistent fluctuations around a descending trend, however, seems to contradict such notion of the one-way, self-fuelling path. It causes us to rethink some of the analytical tools and theories economists are using everyday. In this paper, I will offer the reflections of an academician together with, hopefully, some more practical suggestions. My main point is that an analysis focusing solely upon resource re-allocation mechanisms cannot fully account for Romania\u27s erratic transition because it tends to miss the link with the dual processes of accumulation and creation of new resources. I will, therefore, reconstruct the "other side" of Romania\u27s story by looking at its dynamic structure, described by the distribution of the economy\u27s sectoral paths. The evolution over time of such distribution is the key to understanding the two issues of macroeconomic vulnerability and the non-sustainability of the country\u27s current situation. Thus, the dynamics of Romania\u27s economy is treated as a specimen of an independent variety of transition. It is one that not only proves unable to initialise and then sustain long-term growth; it seems to actually absorb and destroy more resources than it creates, in this way generating a slow agony from time to time interrupted sudden bursts of activity. The term dynamic trap is meant to describe such a repeating pattern of wild fluctuations around a contracting trend. Due partly to the short time horizon and data availability, the conclusions of the foregoing analysis can only be tentative. Still, they clearly point out the need to re-consider policy for Romania and similar countries. In particular, measures are required to put in place and to enhance mechanisms of technology transfers, to re-orient sectoral composition that generates trade specialization, and generally to create conditions for an accelerated process of accumulation of physical as well as human capital assets. The economic environment in such countries seems unable to process macroeconomic policies in the expected way.本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこ

accounting approach and multisectoral modelling

abstract: there are two versions of the multisectoral model: the "formalistic" one, based on an axiomatics of production relations and the "empiristic" version based on an accounting/algebraic approach. for this reason, the multisectoral model provides a good case study for an issue that has dominated the development of economic analysis in this century: the opposition between formalistic and the empiricist philosophies. in this paper a reconstruction of this latter one is suggested.