Hochwasserrisiko im mittleren Neckarraum Charakterisierung unter Beruecksichtigung regionaler Klimaszenarien sowie dessen Wahrnehmung durch befragte Anwohner

The aim of this diploma thesis is twofold: Firstly to show for a given subcatchment how the risk ''flood'' could possibly alter under climate change. Secondly it will be analysed how potentially affected persons individually perceive this change of risk. To accomplish this aim the thesis is based on an interdisciplinary approach which combines methods of the natural- and social sciences. The methods of the natural sciences are mainly based on hydrological techniques and the application of climate change scenarios while the methods of the social sciences deal with perception- and speculation horizons of individual persons. Within this context different definitions of the term ''risk'' will be discussed. Further it will be pointed out that the term risk can be understood as a result of different, respectively process related, correlations. The first part includes calculations on the possible future development of floodrisk in a subcatchment of the river Neckar in southwest Germany. These analyses will be based on applications of the hydrological model HBV-D and the integration of statistically downscaled and therefore regionalized climate change scenarios. The second part deals with the perceptions of selected stakeholders, who were confronted with the results from the hydrological studies. These analyses will primarily be based on statistical evaluations of interviews in the surrounding area of the city of Pforzheim, involving households, decision-makers and also pupils from two local grammar schools. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(87) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Zur Klimatologie der Station Jena

Long-term climate registrations are of great importance for climate modelling and prediction. The time series from Jena, where first whether observations were made in 1770, are therefore of special interest. For this work, the data from Jena covering the years from 1824 to 2000 have been completed and organized in a uniform format as far as possible. For further processing, the years 1879 to 2000 were chosen. Their homogenity was tested, occuring inhomogenities were correlated to the history of the station if possible. Finally, evolution of climate parameters in Jena was plotted and described, which in some cases turned out to be interesting. For example the annual mean of the daily minimum temperatures increased by 2.28 C during these years, while the annual means of the daily amplitudes of temperature decreased by 1.49 K. These trends are observed in general within the process of global warming. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(76) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

Regionale integrierte Modellierung der Auswirkungen von Klimaaenderungen am Beispiel des semi-ariden Nordostens von Brasilien

Semi-arid regions are characterized by a high degree of water scarcity. An increasing water demand due to population growth and economic development and a decrease in interannuell precipitation rates due to global climate change may aggravate water scarcity in the future, which poses the risk of worsening the already poor living conditions in these regions. An assessment of likely impacts of global climate change requires integrated studies, that analyse the complex mechanisms and feed-backs between natural and human systems in semi-arid-regions and quantify impacts, best by using integrated dynamic models. Such a study was carried out by the joint Brazilian-German research project WAVES taking the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil as an example. One main result was the semi-arid integrated model SIM. For the first time, the model allows for a comprehensive modelling of the complete causal chain of climate change, water availability, agricultural production and quality of life/migration including feed-backs from a dynamic, quantitative and geographically explicit point of view. SIM is a deterministic integrated model, that computes discrete. It is composed of several dynamically combined sub-modules. External driving forces are included via scenario assumptions. Calculations are possible on several spatial scales for a time horizon up to 50 years. This thesis made an in-depth contribution to the model development, analysed model uncertainties with the use of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis and performed integrated scenario analysis. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(89) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Abflussentwicklung in Teileinzugsgebieten des Rheins Simulationen fuer den Ist-Zustand und fuer Klimaszenarien

This report ''development of runoff in subcatchments of the River Rhine -simulations of the current state and for climate change scenarios'' investigates the impacts of possible future climate changes on runoff and runoff regime in selected subcatchments of the River Rhine. The regional climate in the selected subcatchments Mosel (up to gauge Cochem), Sieg (gauge Menden 1) and Main (gauge Kemmern) is affected by the middle mountain ranges. In a first step, important model processes are parameterized according to catchment characteristics. A representation of the regional hydrology is then produced by using the hydrological model HBV-D. Based on time series of daily measurements (temperature, precipitation) at stations within the catchment, this representation can be used to realistically simulate time series of runoff and discharge. In all examined areas, the quality of simulations of the calibration and validation periods for the current state (standard period of measurements 01/01/1961-12/31/1999) can be regarded as good to excellent. To aid the catchment-specific, extensive and time-consuming data processing, a working environment for the hydrological model HBV-D has been developed. In a second step, the current states of areal precipitation, areal temperature and simulated mean discharge (MQ) are compared to the corresponding states for two scenarios of future climate changes (100 years later, 2061-2099). These scenarios are based on simulated global circulations of one model run for each of two global circulation models (GCM). These global circulations are regionalized (downscaled) using a statistical approach into scenario time series of daily values (temperature, precipitation - input for the hydrological model) at control stations within the individual catchments. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(88) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

National and regional climate change impact assessments in the forestry sector Workshop summary and abstracts of oral and poster presentations

Climate change is likely to affect forests and the forest industry during the 21"s"t century. Different processes in forest ecosystems and the forest sector are sensitive to climate and many different projects have been conducted, in which the scale of study varied from the individual leaf to the whole globe. Several attempts have been made to link impact models (e.g., ecological and socio-economic models), and to integrate them in national or regional climate impact assessment studies. However, integration of climate impact assessments for the forestry sector is still a relatively new issue on the research agenda. From November 10 to 13, 1999 the Postdam Institue for Climate Impact Research and the European Forest Institute organised a workshop in Wenddoche near Belzig (Germany) to bring together individuals and research groups from the currently developing research community, to provide a forum for the exchange of experience, and to stimulate further research collaboration. The workshop attracted 31 scientists from 12 countries, representing a wide range of disciplines covering ecophysiology, soils, forest ecology, growth and yield, silviculture, remote sensing, forest policy, and forest economics. Several presentations investigated possible impacts of climate change on forest growth and development. A second major topic was the carbon budget and the possible contribution of forestry to carbon dioxide mitigation. The third important focus was the application of economic models to estimate socio-economic consequences of changes in forest productivity and the linkage of ecological and economic models. Non-timber forest benefits were addressed in one regional impact assessment and in two national integrated assessments from the U.S. and Germany. The latter also included social components with the involvement of stakeholders and the decision making of forest owners under global change.SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(61) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

Large-scale hydrological modelling in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil

Semi-arid areas are characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand due to population growth and economic development as well as a possible decreasing water availability in the course of climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future in these areas. The quantitative assessment of the water resources is a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management. For this task, hydrological models within a dynamic integrated framework are indispensable tools. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments. The study area is the Federal State of Ceara in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Surface water from reservoirs provides the largest part of water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(77) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

Conceptual frameworks of adaptation to climate change and their applicability to human health

Anthropogenic climate change will affect the distribution and urgency of health risks around the world. However, the majority of adverse health impacts of climate change can be avoided by implementing suitable adaptation policies. Planned adaptation to the health impacts of climate change comprises a broad range of public health interventions. Most of these measures are not only effective in a changed climate but they also current health risks. Successful planned adaptation depends on an awareness of and information about the problem, on the existence of effective response strategies, and on the availability of the resources, information, and incentives to actually implement them. The main challenges in developing adaptation strategies for human health are to account for the diversity of health impairments, regional conditions and adaptation actors, and for the large uncertainty about future changes in most climate-sensitive health risks. This report reviews a broad range of 'conceptual frameworks of adaptation' as to their relevance for assessments of planned adaptations to the health impacts of climate change. These frameworks originate from the largely distinct communities concerned with climate change, public health, natural hazards, and risk management. The term 'conceptual framework of adaptation' is used here to denote any representation of concepts that can assist the design and assessment of policy strategies aimed at reducing climate-sensitive health effects. In our review, we distinguish the following categories of conceptual frameworks: typologies of climate change assessments; guidelines for climate change risk assessments; conceptual frameworks for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change; typologies of adaptation measures and adaptive systems; and evaluation frameworks for adaptation strategies. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR5801(91) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

How much warming are we committed to and how much can be avoided?

This paper examines different concepts of a 'warming commitment' which is often used in various ways to describe or imply that a certain level of warming is irrevocably committed to over time frames such as the next 50 to 100 years, or longer. We review and quantify four different concepts, namely (1) a 'constant emission warming commitment', (2) a 'present forcing warming commitment', (3) a 'zero emission (geophysical) warming commitment' and (4) a 'feasible scenario warming commitment'. While a 'feasible scenario warming commitment' is probably the most relevant one for policy making, it depends centrally on key assumptions as to the technical, economic and political feasibility of future greenhouse gas emission reductions. This issue is of direct policy relevance when one considers that the 2003 global mean temperatures were 0.8 C above the pre-industrial mean and the European Union has a stated goal of limiting warming to 2 C above the pre-industrial mean: What is the risk that we are committed to overshoot 2 C? Based on the conventional IPCC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (1.5 C to 4.5 C) and more recent estimates, we found that a (1) constant emission scenario is virtually certain to overshoot 2 C with a central estimate of 2.0 C by 2100 (4.2 C by 2400). (2) While for the present radiative forcing levels it seems unlikely (risk between 0% and 30%, central estimate 1.1 C by 2100 and 1.2 C by 2400), the risk of overshooting is increasing rapidly if radiative forcing is stabilized much above today's levels (roughly 400ppm CO_2 equivalence) in the long-term. (3) From a geophysical point of view, if all human-induced emissions were ceased tomorrow, it seems 'exceptionally unlikely' that 2 C will be overshoot (central estimate: 0.7 C by 2100; 0.4 C by 2400). (4) Assuming future emissions according to the lower end of published mitigation scenarios provides (350ppm CO_2 eq to 450ppm CO_2 eq) the central temperature projections are 1.5 C to 2.1 C by 2100 (1.5 C to 2.0 C by 2400) with a risk to overshoot of 10% to 50% by 2100 and 1%-32% in equilibrium. Furthermore, we quantify the 'avoidable warming' to be 0.16-0.26 C for every 100GtC of avoided CO_2 emissions - based on a range of published mitigation scenarios. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR5801(93) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Improving the behaviour of forest gap models along drought gradients

Recent applications of forest gap models have shown weak performance along drought gradients. Using the gap model FORCLIM, we examine two possible explanations for this: (1) The parameters denoting the drought tolerance of the tree species need to be estimated more accurately, and (2) the soil water balance estimation schemes used in most gap models are not capable of tracking soil moisture content under dry conditions sufficiently well to reflect its influence on tree growth. The behaviour of the model along two drought gradients in Europe and eastern North America, respectively, is used as a test case. Parameter adjustments alone turned out to be ineffective for improving the performance of FORCLIM. A theoretical analysis of the soil water balance model by Thornthwaite and Mather, which is used in FORCLIM and in many other gap models, showed that it yields inconsistent results when applied to simulate the year-to-year variability of drought occurrence. We therefore have developed a new water balance model with the goal of adequate performance in connection with a forest gap model, similar simplicity and low computational demand as in previous models. The new scheme uses a bucket approach and monthly time steps of temperature and precipitation alone. The performance of FORCLIM did not improve when the new water balance model was used together with the original estimates of the species' drought tolerance. However, when both a small number of drought tolerance parameters were adjusted and the new water balance model was incorporated, the performance of FORCLIM increased strongly along the drought gradients on both continents. In Europe, the transition from beech to oak forests could be simulated correctly, whereas in eastern North America the simulated pattern of aboveground biomass became much more realistic. We conclude that the Thornthwaite and Mather model of soil water balance should not be used in forest gap models any more. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(24) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Modelling of global vegetation diversity pattern

SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(79) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman