Modelling the stability of Cladonia-Scots pine forest (Cladonio-Pinetum Juraszek 1927) within Bory Tucholskie National Park using the repeated chronosequence method

Cladonio−Pinetum Juraszek 1927 forest is protected in Europe as the Natura 2000 habitat. Nowadays its naturalness is often considered to be doubtful. In spite of the many research, the knowledge about ecology and dynamics of this community is still insufficient. The aim of the research is to define the stability of the community within ‘Bory Tucholskie' National Park. The site is located in the area of the best developed patches of the habitat, in north−western Poland. Two datasets of relevés were used. The first comes from published data and includes 123 relevés made in year 2000. The other comes from own fieldworks performed in 2014. Due to the high homogeneity of geology and soils of the study site, repeated chronosequence method could be used to compare both datasets. The information about herb and moss layers of all relevés was compared using DCA method. The change in community was measured as a shift in the position within the main gradient of DCA over 14−year period. It was calculated for 122 pairs of relevés. Than the model of the speed of community change was computed for the main gradient. We used two methods of calculation of duration of the lichen−rich pine forests. The first was based on the calculated ranges of distinguished associations and the other used the model of cover of species connected to Cladonio−Pinetum forest. As the speed of community change in the gradient and the distance between distinguished communities were known, the time of community duration could be computed. According to obtained results, Cladonia−Scots pine forest (Cladonio−Pinetum) and lichen rich fresh pine forest (Leucobryo−Pinetum with Cladonia) of ‘Bory Tucholskie' National Park will last for 64−109 years. This result shows, that the considered Natura 2000 habitat is unstable. It is the possible development stage within managed forest stands and active conservation is necessary where its preservation is needed