Business cycles, economic crises, and the poor : testing for asymmetric effects

The author examines whether output contraction associated with cyclical output fluctuations and economic crises have an asymmetric effect on poverty. He identifies four potential sources of asymmetry: expectations and cofident factors, credit rationing at the firm level (induced by either adeverse selection problems or negative shocks to net worth), borrowing constraints at the household level, and the"labor hoarding"hypothesis. He also identifies some testable implications of these alternative explanations. The author then proposes a vector autoregression technique (involving the detrended components of real output, the unemployment rate, real wages, and the poverty rate) to test whether the initial cyclical position of the economy, and the size of the initial drop in the output gap in a downturn, matter in assessing the extent to which output shocks affect poverty. He applies the technique to Brazil, using annual data for 1981-99. The results indicate that poverty responds asymmetrically to output shocks, showing less sensitivity when the economy is initially in a downturn.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Public Health Promotion,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Health Economics&Finance,Achieving Shared Growth,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Macroeconomic Adjustment with Segmented Labor Markets

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and labor market policies in a small open developing country. The basic framework considers an economy with a large informal production sector and a heterogeneous work force. The labor market is segmented as a result of efficiency considerations and minimum wage laws. The basic model is then extended to account for unemployment benefits, income taxation, and imperfect labor mobility across sectors. Under the assumption of perfect labor mobility, we show that a permanent reduction in government spending on nontraded goods leads in the long run to a depreciation of the real exchange rate, a fall in the market-clearing wage for unskilled labor, an increase in output of traded goods, and a lower stock of net foreign assets. A permanent reduction in the minimum wage for unskilled workers improves competitiveness, and expands the formal sector at the expense of the informal sector. Hence, in a two-sector economy in which the minimum wage is enforced only in the formal sector and wages in one segment of the labor market are competitively determined, efficiency wage considerations do not alter the standard neoclassical presumption. A reduction in unemployment benefits is also shown to have a positive effect on output of tradable goods by lowering both the level of efficiency wages and the employment rent of skilled workers.

Volatility and the welfare costs of financial market integration

The authors examine the effect of volatility on the costs and benefits of financial market integration. The authors use a basic framework that combines the costly state verification model and the contract enforceability approach. They assess the welfare effects of financial market integration by comparing welfare under financial market integration and comparing welfare under financial autarky and financial openness. Under financial openness, foreign banks, which have lower costs of intermediation and a lower markup rate, have free access to domestic capital markets. The analysis shows that financial integration may be welfare-reducing if world interest rates under openness are highly volatile. The authors extend the basic framework in various directions. They show that opening the economy to unrestricted inflows of capital, in particular, may magnify the welfare cost of existing distortion, such as congestion externalities or deposit insurance.Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation,Financial Economics

Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints

The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough rather than a sharp peak). Savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade - in contrast with the predictions of conventional consumption-smoothing models. They test the asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results - based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group of countries for which movements in the terms of trade have traditionally represented a key source of macroeconomic shocks) - indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) indeed tend to be associated with higher rates of private savings.Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Banks&Banking Reform,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research

Disinflation and the supply side

The authors study the dynamics of output, consumption, and real wages induced by a disinflation program based on permanent and temporary reductions in the nominal devaluation rate. They use an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy in which domestic households face imperfect world capital markets, the labor supply is endogenous, and wages are flexible. The model predicts that, with a constant capital stock and no investment, there is an initial reduction in real wages and output expands. Consumption falls on impact but increases afterward. In addition, with a temporary shock, a current account deficit emerges and, later a recession sets in, as documented in various studies. With endogenous capital accumulation, numerical simulations show that the model can also predict a boom in investment.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Growth,Fiscal&Monetary Policy

Contracting models of the Phillips curve - empirical estimates for Middle-income countries

This paper provides empirical estimates of contracting models of the Phillips curve for four middle-income developing economies-Chile, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and Turkey. Following an analytical review, models with both one lead and one lag, and two lags and three leads, are then estimated using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques. The results indicate that for both Chile and Turkey past and future inflation are of about the same magnitude in affecting current inflation. In Korea past inflation has a larger impact on inflation, whereas in the Philippines it is future inflation that plays a larger role. Homogeneity restrictions are satisfied for Korea and Turkey, but not for Chile and the Philippines.Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Markets and Market Access,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets

Financial Sector Inefficiencies and Coordinate Failures: Implications for Crisis Management

This paper analyzes the implication of inefficient financial intermediation for crisis management in a country where firms are highly-indebted. The analysis is based on a model in which firms rely on bank credit to finance their working capital needs and lenders face high state verification and enforcement costs of loan contracts. The analysis shows that higher contract enforcement and verification costs, lower expected productivity, or higher volatility, may shift the economy to the wrong side of the debt Laffer curve, with potentially sizable employment and output losses. The main implication of this analysis for the current policy debate on crisis management is East Asia is that dept reduction, in addition to debt rescheduling, may be required as part of the process of reducing financial sector inefficiencies.

Financial sector inefficiencies and the debt Laffer curve

The authors analyze the implications of inefficient financial intermediation for dbt management, using a model in which firms rely on bank credit to finance their working capital needs, and, lenders face a high state verification and enforcement costs of loan contracts. Their analysis shows that lower expected productivity, higher contract enforcement, and verification costs, or higher volatility of productivity shocks may shift the economy to the wrong side of the debt Laffer curve, with potentially sizable output, and welfare losses. The main implication of this analysis is that debt relief may generate little welfare gains, unless is accompanied by reforms aimed at reducing financial sector inefficiencies.Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Strategic Debt Management,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation,Strategic Debt Management

Financial sector inefficiencies and coordination failures : implications for crisis management

The authors analyze the implications for crisis management of inefficient financial intermediation in a country (such as Indonesia or the Republic of Korea) where firms are highly indebted. They base their analysis on a model in which firms rely on bank credit to finance their working capital needs and loan contracts entail high state verification and enforcement costs for lenders. They find that higher volatility of output, lower productivity, or higher costs for contract enforcement and verification may shift the economy to the inefficient portion of the debt Laffer curve - with potentially sizable losses in employment and output. What implications does this have for the policy debate on crisis management in East Asia? Debt reduction, in addition to debt rescheduling, may be required to reduce employment and output losses in the presence of inefficiencies in the financial sector. In practice this may be difficult to coordinate among a large group of creditors because of the free-riding problem: Each creditor has an incentive to refrain from offering debt relief on its own claims and wait for others to do so, thereby raising the expected value of its own claims.Strategic Debt Management,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies

Labor market policies and unemployment in Morocco : a quantitative analysis

The authors study the impact of labor market policies on unemployment in Morocco. They begin by reviewing the main features of the labor market. Then they present a quantitative framework that captures many of these features-such as a large public sector, high redundancy payments, powerful trade unions, and international labor migration. The authors simulate the impact of a cut in the minimum wage and a reduction in payroll taxation. The results indicate that these policies may have a significant impact in the short term on open unskilled unemployment. But they also show that labor market reforms, to be effective in the long run, may need to be accompanied by offsetting changes in the budget to avoid crowding-out effects on private investment.Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Labor Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management,Poverty Assessment