Robust forecasts on fundamental physics from the foreground-obscured, gravitationally-lensed CMB polarization

[Abridged] Recent results from the BICEP, Keck Array and Planck Collaborations demonstrate that Galactic foregrounds are an unavoidable obstacle in the search for evidence of inflationary gravitational waves in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization. Beyond the foregrounds, the effect of lensing by intervening large-scale structure further obscures all but the strongest inflationary signals permitted by current data. With a plethora of ongoing and upcoming experiments aiming to measure these signatures, careful and self-consistent consideration of experiments' foreground- and lensing-removal capabilities is critical in obtaining credible forecasts of their performance. We investigate the capabilities of instruments such as Advanced ACTPol, BICEP3 and Keck Array, CLASS, EBEX10K, PIPER, Simons Array, SPT-3G and SPIDER, and projects as COrE+, LiteBIRD-ext, PIXIE and Stage IV, to clean contamination due to polarized synchrotron and dust from raw multi-frequency data, and remove lensing from the resulting co-added CMB maps (either using iterative CMB-only techniques or through cross-correlation with external data). Incorporating these effects, we present forecasts for the constraining power of these experiments in terms of inflationary physics, the neutrino sector, and dark energy parameters. Made publicly available through an online interface, this tool enables the next generation of CMB experiments to foreground-proof their designs, optimize their frequency coverage to maximize scientific output, and determine where cross-experimental collaboration would be most beneficial. We find that analyzing data from ground, balloon and space instruments in complementary combinations can significantly improve component separation performance, delensing, and cosmological constraints over individual datasets.Comment: 37 pages plus appendices, 15 figures; first two authors contributed equally to this work; forecasting tool available at http://turkey.lbl.gov. v4: matches version published in JCAP (with extended dark energy constraints

Dynamical behavior of generic quintessence potentials: constraints on key dark energy observables

We perform a comprehensive study of a class of dark energy models - scalar field models where the effective potential can be described by a polynomial series - exploring their dynamical behavior using the method of flow equations that has previously been applied to inflationary models. Using supernova, baryon oscillation, CMB and Hubble constant data, and an implicit theoretical prior imposed by the scalar field dynamics, we find that the LCDM model provides an excellent fit to the data. Constraints on the generic scalar field potential parameters are presented, along with the reconstructed w(z) histories consistent with the data and the theoretical prior. We propose and pursue computationally feasible algorithms to obtain estimates of the principal components of the equation of state, as well as parameters w_0 and w_a. Further, we use the Monte Carlo Markov Chain machinery to simulate future data based on the Joint Dark Energy Mission, Planck and baryon acoustic oscillation surveys and find that the inverse area figure of merit improves nearly by an order of magnitude. Therefore, most scalar field models that are currently consistent with data can be potentially ruled out by future experiments. We also comment on the classification of dark energy models into "thawing'" and "freezing" in light of the more diverse evolution histories allowed by this general class of potentials.Comment: 22 pages and 12 figures, minor clarifications and a new Figure (#9) added in v3, matches the published PRD version. Chains and high-res figures are available at http://kicp.uchicago.edu/~dhuterer/DE_FLOWROLL/de_flowroll.htm

A Seasonal ARIMA Model of Tourism Forecasting: The Case of Sri Lanka

Many scholars have attempted to forecast the tourist arrival series in different countries. The aim of this paper is to find a suitable SARIMA model to forecast the international tourist arrival to Sri Lanka. Monthly data of tourist arrival from January 1995 to July 2016 is used for the analysis. Seasonality in the data series is identified using the HEGY test. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute percent Error (MAPE) are used to measure the forecasting accuracy. The result shows that the SARIMA (1, 0, 16) (36, 0, 24)12 model is suitable to forecast the tourist arrival in Sri Lanka. Keywords: Tourist Arrival, SARIMA model, HEGY test, Forecasting accurac

General framework for cosmological dark matter bounds using N-body simulations

We present a general framework for obtaining robust bounds on the nature of dark matter using cosmological N -body simulations and Lyman-alpha forest data. We construct an emulator of hydrodynamical simulations, which is a flexible, accurate and computationally efficient model for predicting the response of the Lyman-alpha forest flux power spectrum to different dark matter models, the state of the intergalactic medium (IGM) and the primordial power spectrum. The emulator combines a flexible parametrization for the small-scale suppression in the matter power spectrum arising in “noncold” dark matter models, with an improved IGM model. We then demonstrate how to optimize the emulator for the case of ultralight axion dark matter, presenting tests of convergence. We also carry out cross-validation tests of the accuracy of flux power spectrum prediction. This framework can be optimized for the analysis of many other dark matter candidates, e.g., warm or interacting dark matter. Our work demonstrates that a combination of an optimized emulator and cosmological “effective theories,” where many models are described by a single set of equations, is a powerful approach for robust and computationally efficient inference from the cosmic large-scale structure

A novel sampling theorem on the rotation group

We develop a novel sampling theorem for functions defined on the three-dimensional rotation group SO(3) by connecting the rotation group to the three-torus through a periodic extension. Our sampling theorem requires $4L^3$ samples to capture all of the information content of a signal band-limited at $L$, reducing the number of required samples by a factor of two compared to other equiangular sampling theorems. We present fast algorithms to compute the associated Fourier transform on the rotation group, the so-called Wigner transform, which scale as $O(L^4)$, compared to the naive scaling of $O(L^6)$. For the common case of a low directional band-limit $N$, complexity is reduced to $O(N L^3)$. Our fast algorithms will be of direct use in speeding up the computation of directional wavelet transforms on the sphere. We make our SO3 code implementing these algorithms publicly available.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, minor changes to match version accepted for publication. Code available at http://www.sothree.or

Strong Bound on Canonical Ultralight Axion Dark Matter from the Lyman-Alpha Forest

We present a new bound on the ultralight axion (ULA) dark matter mass m a , using the Lyman-alpha forest to look for suppressed cosmic structure growth: a 95% lower limit m a > 2 × 10 − 20     eV . This strongly disfavors ( > 99.7 % credibility) the canonical ULA with 10 − 22     eV < m a < 10 − 21     eV , motivated by the string axiverse and solutions to possible tensions in the cold dark matter model. We strengthen previous equivalent bounds by about an order of magnitude. We demonstrate the robustness of our results using an optimized emulator of improved hydrodynamical simulations