Minnesota Agricultural Economist 701

International Relations/Trade,

Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam

In 2007 and 2008, international prices of rice and other grains sharply increased, raising fears that poor households in developing countries would become poorer. Yet, these fears often ignored that many of these poor households were food producers. This study examines the impact of rising food prices on welfare in Vietnam. Our results show that, overall, higher food prices raised the average Vietnamese household’s welfare. However, higher food prices made most households worse off. Average welfare was found to increase because the average welfare loss of households whose welfare declined (net purchasers) was smaller than the average welfare gain of those whose welfare increased (net sellers).food prices, poverty, rice prices, Vietnam, welfare, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty,

Economic mobility in Vietnam in the 1990s

Vietnam's high economic growth in the 1990s led to sharp reductions in poverty, yet over the same time period inequality increased. This increased inequality may be less worrisome if Vietnamese households experience a high degree of income mobility over time. This is because high mobility implies that the long-run distribution of income is more equally distributed than the short-run distribution, since some individuals or households are poor in some years, while others are poor in other years. The authors examine economic mobility in Vietnam using recent household survey panel data. The problem of measurement error in the income variable, which exaggerates the degree of economic mobility, is directly addressed. Correcting for measurement error dramatically changes the results. At least one half of measured mobility is because of measurement error.Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Roads&Highways,Economic Theory&Research,Housing&Human Habitats,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Housing&Human Habitats,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Inequality,Governance Indicators

Targeting assistance to the poor using household survey data

It is important that limited government resources be channeled to the poor, but it is not always easy to identify the poor. Which households should be given tranfers when reliable information on incomes is difficult to obtain? The authors of this paper present a simple method for targeting when income is not observable but other characteristics that are correlated with income can be observed. Using survey data taken from Cote d'Ivoire, they predict incomes based on observable characteristics and distribute transfers on the basis of those predictions. It appears that significant reductions in poverty can be achieved using this method.Environmental Economics&Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction,Services&Transfers to Poor,Safety Nets and Transfers,Poverty Assessment

The Impact of Income Growth and Provision of Health-Care Services on Child Nutrition in Vietnam

Vietnam enjoyed rapid economic growth and a sharp reduction in child stunting in the 1990s. Economic growth can increase children's nutritional status in two ways. First, by raising household incomes, which can be used it to purchase more food, medicine and medical services. Second, by raising government revenue, which can be used to improve publicly provided medical services. This paper estimates the impact of household per capita expenditures on children's nutritional status. All the estimation methods used indicate that household income growth explains at best only part of the decrease in child stunting. The paper also examines what aspects of public and private medical services improveme child health.child nutrition and health, economic growth

What Is the Impact of the Bolsa Família Programme on Education?

Many researchers have shown that Brazil?s Bolsa Família programme had a large impact on reducing poverty and income inequality. But evidence for the programme?s impact on educational outcomes is in short supply. Does Bolsa Família increase school enrolment? Does it reduce dropout rates? Does it improve grade promotions? (...)What Is the Impact of the Bolsa Família Programme on Education?

Teacher Incentives

Advocates of teacher incentive programs argue that they can strengthen weak incentives, while opponents argue they lead to teaching to the test.' We find evidence that existing teacher incentives in Kenya are indeed weak, with teachers absent 20% of the time. We then report on a randomized evaluation of a program that provided primary school teachers in rural Kenya with incentives based on students' test scores. Students in program schools had higher test scores, significantly so on at least some exams, during the time the program was in place. An examination of the channels through which this effect took place, however, provides little evidence of more teacher effort aimed at increasing long-run learning. Teacher attendance did not improve, homework assignment did not increase, and pedagogy did not change. There is, however, evidence that teachers increased effort to raise short-run test scores by conducting more test preparation sessions. While students in treatment schools scored higher than their counterparts in comparison schools during the life of the program, they did not retain these gains after the end of the program, consistent with the hypothesis that teachers focused on manipulating short-run scores. In order to discourage dropouts, students who did not test were assigned low scores. Program schools had the same dropout rate as comparison schools, but a higher percentage of students in program schools took the test.

Many Children Left Behind? Textbooks and Test Scores in Kenya

A randomized evaluation suggests that a program which provided official textbooks to randomly selected rural Kenyan primary schools did not increase test scores for the average student. In contrast, the previous literature suggests that textbook provision has a large impact on test scores. Disaggregating the results by students? initial academic achievement suggests a potential explanation for the lack of an overall impact. Textbooks increased scores for students with high initial academic achievement and increased the probability that the students who had made it to the selective final year of primary school would go on to secondary school. However, students with weaker academic backgrounds did not benefit from the textbooks. Many pupils could not read the textbooks, which are written in English, most students? third language. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Kenyan education system and curricular materials are oriented to the academically strongest students rather than to typical students. More generally, many students may be left behind in societies that combine 1) a centralized, unified education system; 2) the heterogeneity in student preparation associated with rapid expansion of education; and 3) disproportionate elite power.

The Benefits and Costs of Alternative Strategies to Improve Educational Outcomes

This paper reviews the stylized facts regarding the levels of human capital investments and the returns to those investments in developing countries. These returns are substantial and are pervasive across demographic groups. Returns are comparable between men and women and between urban and rural residents. The study shows that 23% of children in developing countries do not complete the fifth grade and of these, 55% started school but dropped out. We argue that eliminating dropouts is the most cost effective way to make progress on the goal of Universal Primary Education. Of the various mechanisms we can use, mechanisms that stimulate schooling demand have the strongest evidence of success to date and are the most cost effective.