The Spectral Representation of Markov-Switching Arma Models

In this paper we propose a method to derive the spectral representation in the case of a particular class of nonlinear models: Markov Switching ARMA models. The procedure simply relies on the application of the Riesz-Fisher Theorem which describes the spectral density as the Fourier transform of the autocovariance functions. We explicitly show the analytical structure of the spectral density in the simple Markov Switching AR(1). Finally, a monetary policy application of a Markov Switching VAR(4) is presentedMultivariate ARMA models; Regime-switching models; Markov switching models; Frequency Domain

Design Limits in Regime-Switching Cases

This paper characterizes the derivation and the assessment of design limits in the case of a regime-switching economy. The object of the analysis on design limits is to derive the restrictions on how feedback rules, the Taylor-type rules typically used in monetary economics, affect the frequency fluctuations underlying the state variable of interest. We extend the analysis in a structured context of model uncertainty where the uncertainty is described by the presence of different potential models whose probability of occurrence and switching is given by a known and ergodic Markov Chain transition matrix. The presence of switching modifies the characteristics of design limits in two main aspects. First, when the optimal variance minimizing rule is chosen, frequency specific restrictions appear more or less stringent with the respect to the linear case depending on the probability of switching: the higher it is, the worst is the performance in terms of frequency-specific fluctuations. Second, contrary to the linear case, design limits are also affected by the policy rule so that their role switches from a constraint to an externality that the policymaker may want to take into account.Design Limits, Stabilization policy, Regime switching, Model Uncertainty

Waves of Optimism and Pessimism

We consider a simple consumption-based asset pricing model with two types of investors who have access to the same observations but who use different updating rules to infer information about the growth state of the economy. In particular, we consider an optimistic and pessimistic group of agents who use distorted Bayesian updating rules. The aim of the work is to understand to what extent the interaction of such distorted Bayesian rules can explain low and medium frequency characterization of dynamics movements observed in the price dividend ratios and can give rise endogenously to waves of pessimism and optimism which are associated with sustained asset price booms and busts. The analysis shows that heterogeneity in ambiguity loving/aversion preferences appears to be an important factor to capture medium-frequency waves observed on asset prices.JRC.G.1-Scientific Support to Financial Analysi

How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy

The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estimation suggest that Investment risk premia are a key driver of the slump following the Great Recession. Endogenous innovation dynamics amplifies financial crises and helps explain the slow recovery. Moreover, financial conditions also account for a substantial share of R&D Investment dynamics

How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy

The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estimation suggest that Investment risk premia are a key driver of the slump following the Great Recession. Endogenous innovation dynamics amplifies financial crises and helps explain the slow recovery. Moreover, financial conditions also account for a substantial share of R&D Investment dynamics

Drivers of the Post-Crisis Slump in the Eurozone and the US

The Global Crisis led to a sharp contraction and long-lasting slump in both Eurozone and US real activity, but the post-crisis adjustment in the Eurozone and the US shows striking differences. This column argues that financial shocks were key determinants of the 2008-09 Great Recession, for both the Eurozone and the US. The post-2009 slump in the Eurozone mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment linked to the poor health of the Eurozone financial system. Mono-causal explanations of the persistent slump are thus insufficient. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US

Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model

Abstract Following the global financial crisis, the Euro Area (EA) has experienced a persistent slump and notable trade balance adjustments, but with pronounced differences across EA Member States. We estimate a multi-country structural macroeconomic model to assess and compare the main drivers of GDP growth and trade balance adjustment across Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We find that the pronounced post-crisis slump in Italy and Spain was mainly driven by positive saving shocks ('deleveraging') and by an increase in investment and intra-euro risk premia. Fiscal austerity in Spain and the productivity slowdown in Italy have been additional sizable contributors to the economic downturn. The results further suggest that euro depreciation, heightened intra-euro risk premia and subdued investment had a sizable impact on the trade balance reversals in Italy and Spain, which has been offset in France by a strong increase in imports and lower exports

How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy

The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estimation suggest that Investment risk premia are a key driver of the slump following the Great Recession. Endogenous innovation dynamics amplifies financial crises and helps explain the slow recovery. Moreover, financial conditions also account for a substantial share of R&D Investment dynamics

How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy

The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estimation suggest that investment risk premia are a key driver of the slump following the Great Recession. Endogenous innovation dynamics amplifies financial crises and helps explain the slow recovery. Moreover, financial conditions also account for a substantial share of R&D investment dynamics